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xxx Day 1 – The Saudi Equation

<p>For more than half a century&comma; Saudi Arabia and its partners in OPEC have ruled the oil market&period; However&comma; despite years of market dominance&comma; many economists believe Saudi Arabia is on the brink of financial disaster&comma; with only two or three years until bankruptcy&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Slumping world oil prices meant that OPEC countries posted a combined current account deficit of just under &dollar;100 billion in 2015&comma; compared with a surplus of &dollar;238 billion in 2014&period; According to the International Monetary Fund &lpar;IMF&rpar;&comma; low oil prices have had a devastating effect on Saudi Arabia&comma; the richest oil producing country in the Middle East&period; Said to have over &dollar;700 Billion in cash reserves&comma; their deficits are draining that reserve at a rate of &dollar;12 Billion per month&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Making matters worse&comma; a series of US diplomatic cables from 2007-2009 that was released by WikiLeaks suggested that senior US embassy staff were warning Washington that Saudi oil reserves were potentially 40&percnt; less than stated by the most recent Saudi estimates&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&&num;8220&semi;First&comma; it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described&comma;&&num;8221&semi; the U&period;S&period; Consul General John Kincannon in Riyadh wrote to State Department officials in Washington&period; &ldquo&semi;The timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray&period;&&num;8221&semi; <&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><center><img src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;punchingbagpost&period;com&sol;images&sol;saudis&lowbar;3eryetryery&period;jpg" alt&equals;"" width&equals;"450" &sol;> <&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><&sol;center><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>As if the oil crash and fears of an oil shortage weren&rsquo&semi;t bad enough&comma; Saudi Arabia is also embroiled in the turbulent politics of the Middle East and is a breeding ground for terrorists&period; The kingdom has slashed spending and is scrambling to raise cash for security amidst painfully low oil prices&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Not helping the crisis for the Saudi Kingdom&comma; the U&period;S&period;&comma; once OPEC&rsquo&semi;s top customer&comma; is now the world&rsquo&semi;s top oil producer&period; Not surprisingly&comma; America is abandoning its traditional role as guarantor of Middle East stability&comma; which is very bad news for the Saudis&comma; who have hitched their survival for 70 years to America&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>With Saudi Arabia struggling to stay afloat and unable to continue meeting future oil demands&comma; the United States has the ability to further its lead as the world&rsquo&semi;s number one oil producer&period; A Saudi Collapse would ensure a spike in oil demand and cost&comma; and the United States is poised to take full advantage of the resulting financial boom&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><strong>Editor&&num;8217&semi;s note&colon;<&sol;strong> When I was a young officer in the CIA&comma; a friend of mine was talking about a briefing he had attended with analysts attempting to determine the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia&period; They were looking at satellite imagery &lpar;a relative novetly at that time &&num;8211&semi; more than 30 years ago&rpar;&period; &nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>An analyst was indicating certain geographic formations&comma; &nbsp&semi;saying &&num;8220&semi;This is an oil formation&comma; there are three of these and they contain xxx in oil reserves and those are our estimates for Saudi oil&period;&&num;8221&semi; Another analysis looked that the image and said &&num;8220&semi;There seem to be seven more formations just like them&comma; what do you say about those&quest;&&num;8221&semi; &nbsp&semi;The first analyst said &&num;8220&semi;Our policy is that those are &&num;8216&semi;unexplored&&num;8217&semi; formations&comma; we don&&num;8217&semi;t count them&period;&&num;8221&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>This was my first indication of how vast were the Saudi oil resources&comma; and this has certainly proven true over the years&period; Unfortunately even vast resources like these are finite&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;

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