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WSJ: NYC, SF and Chicago No Longer ‘Sticky’- Wealthiest are Leaving

&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">For generations&comma; the world’s most powerful cities were built on a quiet but essential agreement&period; Wealthy residents lived near their businesses&comma; paid local taxes&comma; funded cultural institutions&comma; and helped sustain the public systems that made urban life possible&period; That agreement is now under strain&period; A growing number of high earners are leaving traditional economic hubs such as New York&comma; San Francisco&comma; Chicago&comma; and London&comma; often without moving their companies&period; They are simply changing where they live and where they pay taxes&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">This shift raises a profound question&period; If the wealthy are no longer tied to place&comma; what happens to the cities that depended on them&quest;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Collapse of Urban Stickiness<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">For most of history&comma; people lived close to their work&period; Farmers lived on their land&period; Shopkeepers lived above their stores&period; Even after suburbanization expanded commuting distance&comma; executives and professionals still needed to remain near the centers of economic activity&period; Cities were &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;sticky&period;” Residents tolerated high housing costs&comma; congestion&comma; and heavy taxes because opportunity existed only there&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">That reality has changed&period; Digital technology allows participation in economic life from almost anywhere&period; High earners can maintain business operations in New York or San Francisco while claiming residency in Miami or Texas&period; As one analysis explains&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;they aren’t relocating their companies&period; They are relocating themselves&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">This seemingly simple change has enormous implications&period; Cities are no longer self contained economic units&period; They are becoming networks connected by travel&comma; technology&comma; and capital flows&period; Economic participation can happen across locations rather than within a single place&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Why the Wealthy Are Leaving Now<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Wealthy residents have always complained about taxes&comma; but historically they stayed&period; Now they are moving in meaningful numbers&period; Several forces are driving the change&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Taxes are a major factor&period; California has considered a retroactive wealth tax targeting billionaires&period; New York political leaders have proposed higher taxes on high income residents&comma; including a potential millionaire surcharge that could push combined city and state tax rates to 16&period;776 percent before federal taxes&period; When federal obligations are included&comma; the total burden could approach 54 percent&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Even modest moves can reduce that burden dramatically&period; A short relocation outside New York City limits to nearby suburbs or neighboring states may be enough to avoid city taxes&period; As the Tax Foundation noted&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;a high earner doesn’t need to give up the convenience of the city&comma; they just need to move outside the five boroughs&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Financial incentives are powerful&period; A professional couple earning &dollar;1 million annually could save between &dollar;100&comma;000 and &dollar;140&comma;000 per year by moving from California or New York to Florida&period; Over a decade&comma; those savings could exceed &dollar;1 million&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Mobility itself has also changed behavior&period; Economist Albert Hirschman once described how loyalty keeps people invested in improving institutions rather than abandoning them&period; Today loyalty is weakening because exit is easy&period; When taxes rise or services decline&comma; people move instead of fighting for reform&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><strong>New York as a Case Study in Fiscal Fragility<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">New York provides one of the clearest examples of the risks cities face when wealthy residents depart&period; The city depends heavily on a small group of taxpayers&period; Fewer than one percent of filers generate more than 40 percent of income tax revenue&comma; while the top 10 percent provide about two thirds&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">This concentration means even modest migration creates large fiscal consequences&period; Between 2019 and 2020&comma; the number of New Yorkers earning between &dollar;150&comma;000 and &dollar;750&comma;000 declined nearly six percent&period; Those earning more than &dollar;750&comma;000 fell nearly 10 percent&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Migration data reveal the scale of the shift&period; More than 125&comma;000 New Yorkers moved to Florida in recent years&comma; taking nearly &dollar;14 billion in income with them&period; About 41&comma;000 settled in Miami Dade&comma; Palm Beach&comma; and Broward counties alone&period; Those departures removed roughly &dollar;10 billion in adjusted gross income from New York City&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Observers warn that the consequences extend beyond numbers&period; The infrastructure and services millions rely on are funded disproportionately by a small group of high earners&period; When they leave&comma; the system becomes unstable&period; One analysis notes that the lifestyle of the broader population is &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;silently carried on the shoulders of the few&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Chicago&comma; California&comma; and the Spread of Concern<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Chicago has experienced similar dynamics&comma; highlighted by billionaire Ken Griffin relocating both himself and his Citadel hedge fund headquarters to Miami&period; California faces growing anxiety as discussions of wealth taxes intensify&period; Technology leaders have been vocal critics of the state’s policy direction&comma; contributing to a broader debate about whether California remains hospitable to capital&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">High costs also play a role&period; Rising living expenses and infrastructure challenges place pressure on budgets and state finances when wealthy taxpayers depart&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><strong>London and the Global Dimension<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">The phenomenon is not limited to the United States&period; London&comma; long considered one of the world’s premier destinations for wealth&comma; is also losing affluent residents&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">An estimated 25&comma;000 wealthy individuals left London in a single year&comma; including 18 people with net worths exceeding &dollar;100 million and two billionaires&period; Factors include tax changes&comma; the abolition of the non dom regime&comma; Brexit fallout&comma; and economic uncertainty&period; London has dropped out of the world’s five wealthiest cities&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Experts emphasize that perception matters as much as policy&period; Tax lawyer Stuart Crippin described the challenge facing Britain&comma; saying one of the biggest problems is changing &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;an international perception of the UK as being a country somewhat in decline&period;” He added that tax reforms conflict with efforts to present Britain as &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;open for business&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Wealth planners also note that policy changes trigger broader reassessments&period; Simon Allister explained that tax changes often cause individuals to reconsider &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;lifestyle&comma; education&comma; business conditions and long term plans&comma;” not just financial calculations&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Where the Wealth Is Going<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Migration patterns show clear winners&period; Florida has become a major destination&comma; attracting high profile figures such as Jeff Bezos&comma; Larry Page&comma; Sergey Brin&comma; and Jan Koum&period; Texas promotes itself as business friendly and family friendly&period; Tennessee and Wyoming also attract wealthy residents due to favorable tax environments&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Globally&comma; wealthy individuals leaving London are relocating to Portugal&comma; South Africa&comma; and other jurisdictions offering attractive tax treatment and lifestyle benefits&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Researchers describe places like Miami&comma; Dubai&comma; and Singapore as &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;lifestyle tax havens&period;” These cities combine low taxes&comma; luxury amenities&comma; and access to global networks&period; They function as satellites connected to larger economic hubs rather than replacements for them&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What Cities Lose Beyond Money<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">When wealthy residents leave&comma; the losses extend far beyond tax revenue&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Affluent individuals fund museums&comma; universities&comma; hospitals&comma; and nonprofit organizations&period; They support charities and civic initiatives&period; They serve on boards and influence urban development&period; When they depart&comma; they take those contributions with them&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">As one analysis observed&comma; departing residents &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;don’t merely take their checkbooks&semi; they take their boards&comma; galas&comma; and fundraising networks&period;” The cultural identity of a city can weaken along with its finances&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Fiscal consequences also create pressure on remaining residents&period; Governments still must fund schools&comma; transit&comma; public safety&comma; and infrastructure&period; With fewer high earners contributing&comma; the burden shifts to middle income taxpayers&period; That can trigger further migration&comma; creating a cycle that is difficult to reverse&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">The cities attracting wealthy migrants face challenges of their own&period; Many were not designed to handle rapid growth on the scale of global hubs like New York or London&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Infrastructure strains emerge quickly&period; Housing costs rise sharply&period; Schools and public services struggle to expand fast enough&period; Traffic congestion worsens&period; Service workers often cannot afford to live near employment centers&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Wealthy residents can purchase private solutions such as private schools&comma; security&comma; and transportation&period; But the broader population cannot&period; When essential workers are priced out&comma; everyday city functions begin to break down&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">These issues are not temporary&period; They reflect structural limits in cities that were never built to support massive population inflows&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><strong>An Existential Question for Modern Cities<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">The most important change may be psychological&period; For decades&comma; policymakers assumed wealthy residents were effectively captive&period; High taxes could be imposed because people needed to remain near economic opportunity&period; That assumption is no longer valid&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Mobility has permanently altered the relationship between cities and taxpayers&period; Residents can maintain economic connections without geographic commitment&period; Loyalty is weakening&comma; and exit has become the preferred response to dissatisfaction&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Cities face difficult choices&period; They may need to shift toward taxes on property&comma; land&comma; consumption&comma; tourism&comma; and local business activity rather than income that can easily move&period; They must also address quality of life issues that influence residency decisions&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">What they cannot do is ignore the shift&period; The wealthy have discovered they are no longer anchored to place&period; If cities fail to adapt&comma; the consequences could reshape urban life for decades to come&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><&sol;p>&NewLine;

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