
<p>There are three theories floating around the media sphere regarding the eventual end of the Ukraine War. ; The first is that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will never surrender to any of the demands of Russian Madman Vladimir Putin. ; In the extreme, those proffering this opinion is that Zelensky will not settle for going back to the pre-invasion situation with Russia controlling the Crimea and extending hegemony over the Donbass Region.</p>



<p>The second speculation is that Zelenskyy will have to make some concessions – that Putin will not give up without minimally a face-saving “victory.” ; Then there are those who believe that at some point, Zelenskyy will cut a deal with Putin – perhaps even having Putin bribe the Ukrainian leader. ; In that case, Putin would get some real victories.</p>



<p>The latter two assume that in the long run – and despite the impressive showing of the Ukrainian defense forces – Putin has the power to win the War.</p>



<p>Recently, there are reports that some sort of peace agreement is being advanced – actually put into words. ; Another report indicated that there is a now “probability” of a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin to close the deal. ; The Putin people are not so optimistic.</p>



<p>All things considered, I think that is undue optimism or merely propaganda talk. ; The obstacles to an agreement at this time are more than enormous. ; They are virtually insurmountable. ; In the first place, there would have to be a cease-fire. ; Any agreement would have to be voted on by the Ukrainian people. ; And the sides are so far apart on the basic issues that resolution cannot happen unless … unless Zelenskyy completely folds. ; That would certainly give suspicion to option three above.</p>



<p>So, what are the issues that need to be settled?</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>Zelenskyy has already indicated that he would give up the option of joining NATO. ; NATO is not an important issue since it is unlikely that the Alliance would accept Ukraine’s application for the foreseeable future. ; But still count this as a small victory for Putin. ; ; ; ;</li></ol>



<p>BUT … Zelenskyy wants a rock-solid defense agreement from the western nations – and Turkey and Italy have already said they would do that. ; Since one of the most important provisions of the NATO treaty is mutual defense (Article 5 – an attack on one is an attack on all), Ukraine would have the existential protection without official membership. ; And Zelenskyy still wants admission into the European Union – meaning that Ukraine officially shifts to the west. ; That is a big loss for Putin’s dream of restoring the old Soviet evil empire and uniting the Slavic people.</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="2"><li>The land issues. ; Zelenskyy has been insisting that Russian troops must leave Ukraine – all of Ukraine. ; He does not get too specific, but it is reasonable to assume that he means the Crimea and the Donbass regions, as well. ; That would mean more than a draw. ; The Ukrainians will have totally defeated Russia and totally humiliated Putin. ; Russian negotiators have indicated that returning the control of the Crimea to Ukraine is non-negotiable. ; If Putin can retain the Crimea and get an agreement that cedes the Donbass Region to Russia, that would be a HUGE victory for him.</li></ol>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="3"><li>Another issue are the sanctions. ; If the shooting stops – and Putin gets some wins in the final agreement – does the west remove the sanctions? ; The idea of sanctions is to punish Putin for all the bad things he has done. ; Remember that sanctions are not used to deter, but to punish – and President Biden has told us. ; To lift the sanctions would be like letting a criminal go free on the promise that he would not commit the crime again.</li></ol>



<p>And along with the sanctions is the question of war crimes. ; Would a peace agreement include a provision not to pursue the murders of thousands of people? ; You have at least 300 mostly women and children murdered while taking refuge in that theater in Mariupol. ; In fact, the entire brutal attack on that city could be considered a war crime. ; Also, the carnage in Bucha.</p>



<p>If the lifting of sanctions and the lack of war crime prosecution is part of a peace agreement, Putin wins BIG.</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="4"><li>And then there is one issue that I have not seen discussed by all those experts on the telly. ; Reparations. ; Will a peace agreement include making Russia compensate Ukraine for all the damage Putin did? ; Not only the physical damage to the buildings and infrastructure, but compensation for those innocent civilians who died in Putin’s maniacal scorched earth bombing and war crimes.</li></ol>



<p>And should Putin be held accountable for all the damage he did to the world economy? ; One option could be surrendering a portion of Russia’s oil to the world market to drastically reduce prices.</p>



<p>Returning the Crimea to Ukraine and boot the Russian Navy out of the Crimean port facilities could be seen as a form of reparations – or punishment.</p>



<p>Summary</p>



<p>The problem with a negotiated agreement is that Putin is more likely than not to get away with murder … literally. ; The only just outcome is total defeat. ; The Russian army in Ukraine must be pounded and pounded until they retreat to Mother Russia. ; That is why NATO, the European Union and the rest of the free world MUST provide Ukraine with all the support necessary to defeat Putin – including the possibility of military intervention. ; There is no such thing as a compromise or a stalemate. ; That is just another word that means “Putin wins.”</p>



<p>Unfortunately, the pointy-headed, pin-striped diplomats – along with their wimpish heads-of-state – do not seem to have victory in their vocabulary. ; My answer to the headline question is that Zelenskyy will not give in or sell-out … unless the western democracies do so first.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Will Zelenskyy fight … give in … sell out?
