
<p>Those of us who are in the political punditry business are expected to do the impossible &#8230; ; predict the future.  ;We do the best we can by analyzing the statistics, looking to the trends of the past for informative data, applying our own probability factors based on experience &#8230; and then add a measure of gut instinct. ;</p>



<p>In terms of President Trump, of course he CAN win. ; Based on the closeness of the race, he has a reasonable possibility of winning. ; Prior to the withdrawal of President Biden, Trump had a high degree of probability. ; That was then. ; This is now.</p>



<p>So, why have I reduced Trump’s chances from a probability to only a possibility? ;</p>



<p>The most obvious reason is the nature of the campaign. ; Trump is no longer running against a mentally challenged 81-year-old with an unpopular record on the economy, immigration, crime, wokeness, and weak policies in foreign affairs. ; And a man with very poor messaging skills.</p>



<p>He now faces a much more vigorous and articulate candidate. ; She has a far more unified party. ; She can – and apparently has – temporarily stopped Trump’s advances among Blacks, Hispanics, women and younger voters. ; It is not a sea change, but in a close race, it can be enough to tip the scales.</p>



<p>One thing that was easily predictable was that Harris would get a bump over the Biden numbers immediately.  ; ;She would get a bump picking her vice presidential candidate. ; And she will get a bump coming out of the convention. ; The important issue is &#8230; how much of a bump?</p>



<p>Harris has also reduced or taken away Trump’s lead in some of the all-important battleground states. ; They are still too close to call, but the marginal advantage has shifted. ; In some battleground states.</p>



<p>Trump is running an inexplicably terrible campaign. ; It is so bad that we are seeing Republican loyalists going public – criticizing Trump’s messaging. ; They say he is losing ground because he refuses to stay on a winning message. ; That sounds a lot like the Democrat leaders going public against Biden when he was losing it – referring to the election.</p>



<p>Trump has the advantage on virtually all the key issues, but if the deciding factor for voters is his pugnacious personality, he loses.</p>



<p>Now is the time when that last group of undecided voters start making up their minds. ; They are currently trending to Harris. ; Trump has very little time to shift his campaign away from personalities and on to issues. Calling Harris names not only takes the air out of the room for presenting issues – his stand against Harris’ uber left-wing positions – it keeps the voters focusing on his personality. ; His Achilles ; Heel.</p>



<p>Trump carries a LOT of baggage. ; He has been able to succeed despite (and maybe because) of it. ; But it still is an overall negative in terms of voter support. ; That is most clearly seen in the number of GOP voters, leaders and activists who have abandoned Trump – with many fully joining the opposition.</p>



<p>Turning things around for Trump is more difficult because of the general pro-Democrat bias of the news media. The bias is more extreme today than ever.</p>



<p>In close elections, the get-out-the-vote effort is more important than ever. From a distance, it appears that the Democrats may have the advantage.</p>



<p>Despite all that, it is still very possible for Trump to win. How could that happen?</p>



<p>First and foremost, Trump would have to drop all his grievance complaints &#8212; and stop the childish name calling. ; If he does not do at least that, the possibility of winning diminishes.</p>



<p>Harris does not get a high score in the likeability ratings. Her favorability rating can slip without the Trump attacks. In fact, he helps her with voters by making himself less likable.</p>



<p>Trump needs to talk issues, her record and his plans one hundred percent of the time. The only references to himself should be the good things he has done as President – securing the border, keeping America out of war – and the world was more peaceful. There was no invasion of Ukraine under Trump – nor an attack on Israel. The Taliban did not control Afghanistan. Iran was on the ropes financially. North Korea had stopped missile testing. The Abraham Accords made the Middle East more peaceful and stable. Record low inflation and unemployment – especially Black unemployment. And the list goes on.</p>



<p>Unfortunately for Trump his many accomplishments got trumped – figuratively and literally &#8212; by his own behavior and outlandish statements. He literally crushes his own positive messaging. </p>



<p>Republicans have every reason to be concerned &#8212; but it is no time for Democrats to get giddy.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Will Trump win? Maybe not
