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Will the GOP blow the 2022 midterm elections?

Will the GOP blow the 2022 midterm elections?

The Republican Party is heading into the 2022 midterm elections with every reason to have a wave election similar to what happened in 2010 when the GOP took control of the election in what President Obama referred to as a shellacking of the Democrats.

So, what are the GOP advantages?

  1. Traditionally, the party that controls the White House loses seats in Congress in the first midterm.
  2. Redistricting based on population movement from Democrat-controlled states to Republican-controlled states – and some good old fashion gerrymandering — changes the distribution of congressional seats in favor of the GOP.  Although Democrats have blunted this somewhat with good old fashion gerrymandering of their own.
  3. Democrats have only 50 of the 100 seats in the Senate.  Lose a net one seat and the GOP is back in charge.
  4. The GOP is gaining. Democrats only have a nine-seat margin in the House.  Flip five seats, and Republicans take control.
  5. Unprecedented support from minorities – especially the Hispanic community.
  6. Public confidence in Congress is at an all-time low – and the Democrats are in charge.
  7. President Biden’s favorable rate has reached an all-time low since the question was polled.
  8. The inflation that Democrats said would not occur – and if it did would be mild and short-lived – has risen to heights not seen in 40 years.
  9. Despite Biden’s denials, the American public believes we are in the early stages of a recession.
  10. The situation at the border has become a monumental crisis that is becoming evident to the people despite efforts to ignore it by Democrats and the crony media.
  11. Crime is rampant across the nation, and it is seen as an outcome of soft-on-crime Democrat prosecutors.
  12. America is looking weak on the world stage as situations in Afghanistan, Ukraine, China, Iran, North Korea and Saudi Arabia betray that weakness.
  13. The Democrats are a deeply divided party at the voter level even if there is a Washington solidarity based on nothing more than a desire to retain power.
  14. Republican voters are more enthusiastic than Democrat voters according to polls.  This generally results in higher voter turnout.

With that lineup, the GOP should be looking forward to a sweeping victory across the nation.  But … not so fast.  There are factors that play against Republicans.  So, what are the Democrats’ advantages?

  1. First and foremost, they have a huge benefit in an extremely biased left-wing media.  Powerful outlets like MSNBC, the New York Times and the Washington Post – to name a few – are, as they say, in the bag for the Democrats to an extent never seen in American history. These folks are essentially running advertising and infomercials for Democrats and peddling it as news coverage and documentaries.  Without this unprecedented and unethical partisan support from the media, virtually none of the Democrat issues would carry the day.
  2. Democrats have a party registration advantage over Republicans.
  3. Democrats currently have a significant money advantage over Republican candidates.  Although money is not a predictor of outcomes as many believe.
  4. As mentioned above, Democrats have come out of redistricting better than foreseen.
  5. One of those issues is the Roe v. Wade decision that threw abortion back to the states.  While abortion is not generally a game-changer on election day, Democrats are putting a lot of effort into changing that dynamic.
  6. The once dormant gun issue – thought to be dead after the bipartisan gun reform agreement – has been revived with a House passed so-called “assault weapon ban.”  They know the issue is dead in the senate, but they want to put House Republicans on the record for the November elections.
  7. Democrats have been successful in keep bad-boy Trump as an issue even though he is not on the ballot in November.  And Trump helps them by his own desire to be the top of the news every day.  It is a high-risk strategy – to make an election all about a person who will not be on the ballot when voters begin to vote.
  8. To make up for the fact that Trump is not on the ballot, Democrats have created an exaggerated theatrical narrative about insurrection and coup attempts that involved every member of the Republican Party.  Allowing Democrats to run a one-sided tribunal – pumped up by media propaganda – was one huge mistake by wannabe House Speaker Keven McCarthy.  He literally gave Nancy Pelosi control of the airwaves throughout the campaign season.
  9. Democrats have embarked on what is arguably one of the most significant dirty tricks in American political history.  Right up there with the bogus dossier of the 2016 presidential election. They have been invading Republican primaries and spending hundreds of millions of dollars to support the person they believe would be the easiest to defeat – usually a Trump endorsee.
  10. Democrats are ahead by 3 or 4 points in what is called the “generic poll,” asking which party the person will vote for in congressional races.  Because of voter distribution among the states, however, that lead historically suggests an outcome favorable to the Republicans.  It is because Democrats are more compacted into fewer congressional districts.
  11. Republicans have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  It usually is due to excessive early optimism – which we are seeing in the 2022 election cycle.

Based on all considerations, the GOP is likely to make gains in the November election – but it may not be the wave election that has been predicted.  A reasonable call would be for the GOP to take control of the House by 10 to 30 seats.  The Senate is a coin flip. The governor races will be a mixed bag with the partisan count remaining the same – or a couple of pick-ups for the GOP.  Republicans will do their best at the local levels, with some surprising results in traditional Democrat strongholds – and especially on school boards and prosecutorial offices.

While this view of the future seems much more modest than the big wave predictions, it will have an enormous impact on future elections and, more importantly, on government policy.  That is because the radical left will take the greatest hit regardless of the partisan outcome.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

3 Comments

  1. JoeyP

    These are GREAT answers! . . . And let’s HOPE that the GOP Doesn’t Blow it. It’s good we have a “watchman on the wall” as per the Bible. One Enlightened and Hopeful Patriot.

  2. Frank stetson

    You had it in the bag.

    Now you don’t.

    What you’ gonna do next hot shot?

    Trump is the head of the Republican party. Many people are running on his endorsement. January 6 was an insurrection, the guilty please say so. Perhaps not everyone that storm the building was an insurrectionist, but it only takes one to make an interaction. They have over a dozen, so far, and we’re still counting. Democrats have not spent hundreds of millions in GOP races with their silly ploy to put up true Trumplicant wackos, they spent under 50 million in advertising. And you call this the most disgusting trick in politicalitical history is just a bogus claim. Not even close. How about calling Russia and asking them to out Hillary’s emails, a totally illegal act asking for stolen private emails to be released. And I can go on forever.

    Yeah, we got the people, we got the money, we got the press, all we need to do is get the youngsters to turn out. Thank you Scotus.

  3. K Sny

    If the Democrats keep control after November we. as a free country, are lost. The Democrats have only ONE agenda and that is a one dominant/one weak party system. This will ensure them to keep control forever and change us from a Capitalist free society to a
    Socialist/Communist system where the Government (Democrats) run everything.

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