Will the GOP blow the 2022 midterm elections?
The Republican Party is heading into the 2022 midterm elections with every reason to have a wave election similar to what happened in 2010 when the GOP took control of the election in what President Obama referred to as a shellacking of the Democrats.
So, what are the GOP advantages?
- Traditionally, the party that controls the White House loses seats in Congress in the first midterm.
- Redistricting based on population movement from Democrat-controlled states to Republican-controlled states – and some good old fashion gerrymandering — changes the distribution of congressional seats in favor of the GOP. Although Democrats have blunted this somewhat with good old fashion gerrymandering of their own.
- Democrats have only 50 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Lose a net one seat and the GOP is back in charge.
- The GOP is gaining. Democrats only have a nine-seat margin in the House. Flip five seats, and Republicans take control.
- Unprecedented support from minorities – especially the Hispanic community.
- Public confidence in Congress is at an all-time low – and the Democrats are in charge.
- President Biden’s favorable rate has reached an all-time low since the question was polled.
- The inflation that Democrats said would not occur – and if it did would be mild and short-lived – has risen to heights not seen in 40 years.
- Despite Biden’s denials, the American public believes we are in the early stages of a recession.
- The situation at the border has become a monumental crisis that is becoming evident to the people despite efforts to ignore it by Democrats and the crony media.
- Crime is rampant across the nation, and it is seen as an outcome of soft-on-crime Democrat prosecutors.
- America is looking weak on the world stage as situations in Afghanistan, Ukraine, China, Iran, North Korea and Saudi Arabia betray that weakness.
- The Democrats are a deeply divided party at the voter level even if there is a Washington solidarity based on nothing more than a desire to retain power.
- Republican voters are more enthusiastic than Democrat voters according to polls. This generally results in higher voter turnout.
With that lineup, the GOP should be looking forward to a sweeping victory across the nation. But … not so fast. There are factors that play against Republicans. So, what are the Democrats’ advantages?
- First and foremost, they have a huge benefit in an extremely biased left-wing media. Powerful outlets like MSNBC, the New York Times and the Washington Post – to name a few – are, as they say, in the bag for the Democrats to an extent never seen in American history. These folks are essentially running advertising and infomercials for Democrats and peddling it as news coverage and documentaries. Without this unprecedented and unethical partisan support from the media, virtually none of the Democrat issues would carry the day.
- Democrats have a party registration advantage over Republicans.
- Democrats currently have a significant money advantage over Republican candidates. Although money is not a predictor of outcomes as many believe.
- As mentioned above, Democrats have come out of redistricting better than foreseen.
- One of those issues is the Roe v. Wade decision that threw abortion back to the states. While abortion is not generally a game-changer on election day, Democrats are putting a lot of effort into changing that dynamic.
- The once dormant gun issue – thought to be dead after the bipartisan gun reform agreement – has been revived with a House passed so-called “assault weapon ban.” They know the issue is dead in the senate, but they want to put House Republicans on the record for the November elections.
- Democrats have been successful in keep bad-boy Trump as an issue even though he is not on the ballot in November. And Trump helps them by his own desire to be the top of the news every day. It is a high-risk strategy – to make an election all about a person who will not be on the ballot when voters begin to vote.
- To make up for the fact that Trump is not on the ballot, Democrats have created an exaggerated theatrical narrative about insurrection and coup attempts that involved every member of the Republican Party. Allowing Democrats to run a one-sided tribunal – pumped up by media propaganda – was one huge mistake by wannabe House Speaker Keven McCarthy. He literally gave Nancy Pelosi control of the airwaves throughout the campaign season.
- Democrats have embarked on what is arguably one of the most significant dirty tricks in American political history. Right up there with the bogus dossier of the 2016 presidential election. They have been invading Republican primaries and spending hundreds of millions of dollars to support the person they believe would be the easiest to defeat – usually a Trump endorsee.
- Democrats are ahead by 3 or 4 points in what is called the “generic poll,” asking which party the person will vote for in congressional races. Because of voter distribution among the states, however, that lead historically suggests an outcome favorable to the Republicans. It is because Democrats are more compacted into fewer congressional districts.
- Republicans have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It usually is due to excessive early optimism – which we are seeing in the 2022 election cycle.
Based on all considerations, the GOP is likely to make gains in the November election – but it may not be the wave election that has been predicted. A reasonable call would be for the GOP to take control of the House by 10 to 30 seats. The Senate is a coin flip. The governor races will be a mixed bag with the partisan count remaining the same – or a couple of pick-ups for the GOP. Republicans will do their best at the local levels, with some surprising results in traditional Democrat strongholds – and especially on school boards and prosecutorial offices.
While this view of the future seems much more modest than the big wave predictions, it will have an enormous impact on future elections and, more importantly, on government policy. That is because the radical left will take the greatest hit regardless of the partisan outcome.
So, there ‘tis.