It’s expected that Republicans will keep the majority in the Senate.
However, it’s going to be much more of a challenge to take the House.
40+ Republicans have announced their retirement and the Democrats only have to win 23 seats to overcome the GOP’s 42-seat majority.
“Democrats are most likely to regain the majority in the House. But there are enough close races where a shift of just a few points overall in one direction is the difference between a narrow margin and historic gains,” said Nathan Gonzales, publisher of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan political newsletter.
Not to mention, the Dems have raised much more funding than Republicans in most districts too.
“More than 70 Democratic House hopefuls outraised Republican incumbents in the third quarter of 2018 … giving them a sharp financial edge in the final stretch of the midterms,” writes The Hill.
But there is still some hope that Republicans can hold onto the House after all.
“To understand Republicans’ precarious position, look no further than where the battle for the House is being fought. Of the 48 districts rated a “toss-up” or likely to change hands by the Cook Political Report, just three are currently controlled by the Democratic Party. Inside Elections, meanwhile, rates 44 seats as a “toss-up” or leaning toward switching parties — all but eight held by the GOP,” writes The New York Post.
Politico’s Rachel Bade even said that there is still a possibility that Republicans can keep the majority in the House because the Democrats are retreating from some vulnerable districts.
“And yet House Republicans — and privately, even a few Democrats — say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans,” writes Politico.“Democrats, meanwhile, have retreated from several battlegrounds once considered prime targets. They’ve also deserted a Democratic-controlled open seat in Minnesota, creating a new, rare pickup opportunity for Republicans in a cycle where they’ve consistently been on defense.”
The forecast FiveThirtyEight gives the GOP a 1-in-6 chance of keeping the House majority.
But to do this, the GOP needs to be strategic and to focus on the House since the Senate majority is likely in the bag.
In a recent speech in Montana, President Donald Trump listed off what his administration will do if the Republicans are able to control both the House and Senate.
Some of his plans include– cutting taxes yet again, increasing incomes, confirming more right-leaning judges, securing the border, stopping sanctuary cities, along with implementing other stricter immigration policies.
Author’s note: While it’s likely the Dems will take the House, there is still a fighting chance for Republicans. Trump wasn’t expected to win but he did. The White House and GOP just need to focus on those House races that are super close.