Why the Japanese PM Has a lot to Lose if the U.S. Summit Doesn’t Go Well

Kerry Lear

8 years ago

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President Donald Trump this week&period;&NewLine;But this time Japan&rsquo&semi;s PM has a few factors working against him&period;&NewLine;Abe is facing political scandals and low approval ratings and depending on the outcome of this meeting Abe may be left with another foreign policy headache&period;&NewLine;&ldquo&semi;Abe will have to overcome policy divisions on trade and potentially&nbsp&semi;North Korea&nbsp&semi;that have emerged in Trump&&num;8217&semi;s second year in office&period; A poor summit showing could further undermine Abe&&num;8217&semi;s position at home,&rdquo&semi; writes ABC News&period; &ldquo&semi;The Japanese leader&&num;8217&semi;s approval ratings have declined to below 30 percent in some polls as Abe has been hit by accusations of cronyism and the mishandling of official documents by several ministries&period; That contrasts with the 50 percent approval rating he enjoyed at the time of his Tokyo summit with Trump in November, soon after leading his ruling party to a landslide election victory&period;&rdquo&semi;&NewLine;The South Korean president, Moon Jae-in is meeting with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un in less than two weeks&period; Then, Trump and Kim are expected to have a meeting&period;&NewLine;Tokyo is much closer in proximity to its enemy North Korea and has also taken a strong stance when it comes to denuclearizing rogue North Korea&period;&NewLine;&ldquo&semi;Abe will attempt to use the personal rapport he has established with the US president over the past 18 months to remind Trump that any deal over&nbsp&semi;North Korea&rsquo&semi;s nuclear program must take into account Tokyo&rsquo&semi;s concerns about the missile threat from Pyongyang&period; Tokyo has much to lose from an agreement that focuses on&nbsp&semi;Pyongyang&rsquo&semi;s ability to strike the US mainland&nbsp&semi;with intercontinental ballistic missiles and ignores the more immediate threat its short- and medium-range missiles pose to Japanese territory,&rdquo&semi; writes The Guardian&period; &ldquo&semi;Last year, residents of Hokkaido were twice&nbsp&semi;warned to seek shelter&nbsp&semi;after North Korea test-fired two missiles that flew over the northern Japanese island, albeit at very high altitudes&period;&rdquo&semi;&NewLine;The White House has already taken an understanding approach to Japan&rsquo&semi;s concerns&period;&NewLine;&ldquo&semi;The president has a great deal of respect for Prime Minister Abe&rsquo&semi;s views on north-east Asia security&period; He will certainly want to know what additional thoughts Prime Minister Abe has beyond what he has already shared,&rdquo&semi; said a U&period;S&period; administration official last week&period;&NewLine;However, there is also potential for Trump to use Japan&rsquo&semi;s fears about North Korea to negotiate for some concessions on trade&period;&NewLine;Japan was not excluded from the recently imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports either&period;&NewLine;On the other hand, Japan has some bargaining power too&period;&NewLine;&ldquo&semi;Strategically, given its robust&nbsp&semi;military capabilities&nbsp&semi;and hosting of approximately 50,000 US military personnel, Japan remains a critical player for regional peace and stability&period; Although Japan is&nbsp&semi;legally limited&nbsp&semi;in how it can use its military forces, Japan is the most important US regional ally&period; Its cooperation is needed for virtually any activity the US seeks in the region&period; The US cannot afford to lose Japan as a trusted ally,&rdquo&semi; writes CNN&period;&NewLine;Trump and Abe have developed a close friendship&period; Abe was the first to meet Trump after his November 2016 victory, but it&rsquo&semi;s time for the leaders to discuss some difficult issues and how to achieve the goals they have in common&period;&NewLine;&ldquo&semi;I think that President Trump and Prime Minister Abe have a very good personal and professional relationship&period; My understanding is that President Trump highly values Prime Minister Abe&rsquo&semi;s views,&rdquo&semi; said Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington to Japan Times&period; &ldquo&semi;If the president meets with Kim and says he must eliminate his nuclear weapons, that&rsquo&semi;s good for Japan, and it&rsquo&semi;s good for the United States&period; On the abductees, yes, Prime Minister Abe will raise this issue with President Trump, and I see no reason why President Trump would not agree to raise this issue with Kim&period;&rdquo&semi;&NewLine;Author&rsquo&semi;s note&colon; With the upcoming U&period;S&period; midterm elections, Trump will be more determined than ever to reach a nuclear deal with North Korea&period; This would be a big win for him&period; But time will only tell if it will be one that will satisfy Japan&period;&NewLine;<&excl;--EndFragment-->&NewLine;