Why Is Trump Losing Ground?
As a headline question, I might have asked, “Is Trump losing ground?” The trend is now so obvious, it is more appropriate to ask, “Why?”
The elitist east coast news industry may have President Trump at the top of their agenda as the means to promote their mendacious narratives against all things Republican and conservative, but the 45th President is not sustaining well with Republican voters across the board.
Trump’s support among Republican voters who place him as their absolute first choice for 2024 has dropped to the low 30s percentile. And that still includes many voters who would be supportive of other candidates should Trump not run or should the GOP not nominate him.
In many ways, a hypothetical Trump run in 2024 is looking a lot like a redux of 2020. Trump parlayed a base of 25 to 30 percent into winning momentum because the remaining 70 to 75 percent of the GOP primary voters were split between more than a dozen credible candidates.
Yes, there are still lots of folks very supportive of Trump the President AND Trump the man. They will undoubtedly disagree with my assessment because of their own personal passion. But by all measures, the assumed hardcore Trump base appears to be dwindling.
I say “assumed” because the anti-Trump media is advancing the preposterous narrative that the entire Republican Party – every Trump voter – is part of a personality cult. That is what they want the American people to believe. The media advances that false narrative for only one purpose. To try to get the majority of American voters — including a lot of Republicans and independents – to vote the GOP out of office throughout the land.
Trump is not THE Republican party as Democrats and Republican apostates claim. He is not the leader of a cult of personality any more or less than President Biden, who also has a base of avid supporters. As did President Obama and President Reagan. Calling it a cult, does not make it so. And to spread that mischaracterization across all GOP votes is political obscenity of the first magnitude.
Trump’s decline in popularity among the broad expanse of Republican voters is not due to the success of the Republicans who let Trump-hatred turn their back on Republican and conservative values. Folks like columnist George Will, former conservative activist Bill Kristol, former Republican Congressman and failed radio talk show host Joe Walsh and George Conway, hubby of Trump’s 2020 campaign manager and White House advisor Kellyanne Conway — and a bunch of others who appear as paid contributors on MSNBC and CNN.
Trump’s apparent decline in popularity among Republicans is more complex than the simplistic cult claim. As indicated above, some of the apparent decline in support for Trump is because it was misapplied in the first place. Trump’s hardcore base was never as large as the media would have us believe. It has been the invention of the media with a logic(?) that goes something like this. Trump is evil, therefore all Trump supporters are evil. And all Republicans who voted for Trump in the past are Trump supporters – and therefore evil.
But there is another – and perhaps the most important – reason for a decline in Trump’s popularity. It is Trump, himself. I see it as “Trump fatigue.” I know that does not apply to his most ardent supporters. I am referring to those who voted for Trump in the past two elections, but are committed to the policies, not the man. When faced with a Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 – and the far-left Democrat agenda – those voters went with Trump. For them, it was all about the issues.
It is a fact that most of the Republican voters who cast their ballots for Trump in the 2016 General Election had voted for an alternative candidate in the primary elections. It was opposition to the Democrats as much as an attraction to Trump, himself, that led to his victory in the Electoral College. But he has not had a clear grassroots political victory since.
Based on polling data and my anecdotal experience with Trump voters, his strategy of continuing to harp about the 2020 election is getting shopworn. The national public opinion on that election is set in concrete. There is no changing the opinions of those who believe it was stolen. Or those who believe it was not. Or folks like me, who see clear evidence of vote fraud but are not sure it is sufficient to flip the popular vote or Electoral College.
No matter what lies in Trump’s future, he will not be President of the United States at any time in the next three and a half years. But he could make a comeback in 2024. To do that, however, he must reverse the current trend of a shrinking support base. Trump needs to be more of a team player. Politics is a team sport. You will not win a football game if you only have the quarterback opposing the other team.
The way to build a winning team is for Trump to remind the public of the accomplishments of his ADMINISTRATION. Not just him. He must also provide a vision of what he wants to accomplish in a second term.
Of course, we do not know if Trump will run again. We do not know how serious his legal entanglements might be. But even if he does not run, he has a significant following and a lot of influence. As all former Presidents have. He can be a positive force in bringing about Republican victories in 2022 and 2024 – if he so chooses.
So, there ‘tis.