
<p>If former President Trump decides to run for a second term in 2024 – which I put at less than 50/50 – will he have competition?</p>



<p>A challenge is almost certain to be mounted &#8212; in my judgment. ; I am not talking about some obscure crazy or the perennial losing libertarian type. ; I mean a serious contender.</p>



<p>There are any number of possibilities – and they come from three GOP constituencies.</p>



<p>The first are the Trump-hating malcontents. ; This includes folks like Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney and former Ohio Governor John Kasich. ; Congressman Adam Kinzinger could be in that group. His is a big leap from the People’s House to the White House, but he has garnered enough name recognition to make such a race possible. ; If Pete Buttigieg can jump from the obscure mayor of South bend, Indiana to a credible presidential candidate, Kinzinger could also gain traction.</p>



<p>Then there are those who have been MOSTLY Trump allies, but not without clear demonstrations of independence from the former President – much to his chagrin. ; Now, it looks as though former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is edging in the direction of another presidential bid. ; Another possibility is former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. ; It is no secret that Texas Senator Ted Cruz would like to move into the Oval Office. ; Other potential candidates include Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Iowa Senator Jody Ernst and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. ; ;</p>



<p>Finally, there are those who are perceived to be trump loyalists. ; Leading in that category is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. By all measures, he is the most popular among Republican voters to succeed Trump – that is to “succeed” Trump, not necessarily go up against Trump. ; Conventional wisdom is that he stays out. ; He is young enough, at 43, to make a run for President for the next 36 years – up to the year 2056 if you consider Biden’s age when first elected as a measure.</p>



<p>On the other hand, the best political opportunities are the most impending. ; While a DeSantis challenge to Trump seems very unlikely, there have been recent reports that the relationship between the former President and the Governor has cooled a bit – and that DeSantis popularity is the reason. ; Also, DeSantis refuses to say he will not run in 2024. ; The chill is only a faint whisper, but there is a whisper.</p>



<p>What may be fueling that speculation is a belief by many insiders that DeSantis could actually beat Trump in a head-to-head contest. ; If such a competition arose, Palm Beach County could be a bellwether. ; The current Palm Beach GOP leadership is part of Trump’s hardcore base. ; And why not? ; Trump lives there. ; The ties are both political and social. ; Hanging round with a President of the United States at Mar a Lago is a heady experience.</p>



<p>Trump has his own fan club in Palm Beach County – Club 45. ; It does not get a lot of attention from the media, but it is composed of thousands of local residents and draws the most powerful leaders in the Republican Party as speakers. ; A typical audience can reach 2000. ; Even as an outrigger, it is more influential than the County GOP.</p>



<p>Sufficed to say, Trump has a huge support base in Palm Beach. ; BUT … so does DeSantis. ; If Trump and DeSantis were on the ballot in the Florida presidential primary, I believe the Governor would take at least half of the Trump fan club in Palm Beach. ; The leaders of Club 45 might stay with Trump, but I do not think the membership would lockstep behind them. ; I feel almost certain that DeSantis would carry Florida in such a contest.</p>



<p>While Rubio ran in 2016, he would probably be sidetracked by a DeSantis candidacy. ; If DeSantis is out and Rubio is in, the Senator would have a much tougher time taking Florida away from Trump.</p>



<p>If Trump enters the race, then it all depends on how many others challenge him. ; His best and maybe only chance of winning the GOP nomination is to again have a large field of opponents divide up the vote. ; ;</p>



<p>While it is much too early to analyze the 2024 election, it is not too early to keep an eye out for the potential candidates to start maneuvering. ; The first piece on the board to move appears to be Christie. ; Others will follow. ; Yes, the 2024 presidential campaigns are starting already. ; ;</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Who will challenge Trump in 2024?
