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Who will be the GOP candidate in 2024?

Who will be the GOP candidate in 2024?

Looking through the long lens – past the 2022 midterm elections –who will be among the potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination?

The faction of the Republican Party that is devoted to Trump – something in the 20 percent range – believes it will be Trump.  Their enthusiasm for the former President is unabated.  Ironically, the left-wing media seems to have the same impression – but for very different reasons.  Trump’s base believes that he is unbeatable, and the left-wing media folks believe Trump is unelectable.

Many opine that the GOP presidential nomination is Trump’s to lose.  Au contraire.  While he does have a path to the presidency, it is a very difficult one.  He is going to have to expand his voter base and he is going to have to cross a minefield of court cases and investigations.

Trump’s decision may be influenced by the results of the 2022 midterm elections.  A big gain for Republicans – especially Trump endorsed candidates – will provide some incentive for Trump to run.  If the GOP does not gain at least one chamber of Congress, Trump is probably unelectable – with little chance to be nominated. 

He is likely to have competition – but not the 16 or more opponents to divide up the vote as was the case om 2016. His base is not big enough to produce the plurality required to defeat one or two other candidates – and it may even be smaller today than it was when he came down the escalator.    

Early polls – too early, to be sure – suggest that there are a few potential candidates who poll better than Trump.  The two most likely are Florida Senator Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.  DeSantis is basically in a tie with Trump and Haley with a slight lead over Trump.

Since the left-wing media is tied to the Democrats efforts to win the upcoming elections, they have reacted to the polling numbers that suggest DeSantis or Haley could be the candidate.  They have put the two Republicans in the crosshairs of their pro-Democrat propaganda attack machine.  

The left-wing so-called news services – that have replaced objective journalism with an endless loop of essentially negative campaign ads against the GOP – have started their assault on DeSantis and Haley.  Any other Republican candidate who appears credible for a 2024 run can expect the same vicious treatment.

The smallest portion of the Trump base gets the greatest attention from the media, but they still represent only a fraction of the Republican voters.  And that does not count the lost sheep – those who abandoned the Republican Party because of Trump.  There is no telling how many of them will vote against Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries should he decide to run.

I do not believe that the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is Trump’s to lose.  Delving into the numbers, I think it would be VERY difficult for him to win the nomination if there is any reasonable alternative.  I believe that any credible candidate – such as DeSantis, Haley or a few others who have the fortitude to challenge Trump — will be the 47th President of the United States.

You can tuck this commentary into a “reminder file” – and see if I am right or wrong.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

4 Comments

  1. Joseph S. Bruder

    Well, we know it won’t be Trump – he’ll be in jail. And DeSantis has killed so many of his constituents and is losing so much support, that he’ll probably lose the Governor’s seat in FL too. Ditto Abbott and the rest of the anti-vax governors. Niki Haley tied herself to Trump, and has literally zero support – Trump supporters support him, not her, and those who don’t support Trump will remember her part in his administration. In fact, anyone from Trump’s Administration is laying low, hoping they don’t get indicted for anything.

    90% of Republicans in Congress are still parroting the election scam from Trump. They’re in the Insurrection camp, and none of them will have a chance in hell of getting elected. The few that are left have no name recognition to run on.

    There might be one or two Governors who haven’t tried to push COVID onto their constituents, but they don’t have a chance with the Trump crowd.

    There are the Republican nutjobs, like Cruz and Hawley and Gaetz and the two crazy Republican women in Congress, but they’re hated by Republicans as much Democrats. And have real chances of ending up in jail too.

    There’s Romney and Cheney and a few others, who gained a little bit of national respect for voting to impeach Trump, but they’re viewed as traitors by most Republicans.

    Trump is hinting at running just enough to keep grifting money, and he’s not going to stop hinting and he’s not going to declare either. The minute he declares his run for 2022, all that money has rules and potential legal liability attached to it. Meanwhile, he’s pulling all the oxygen (and money) out of the Republican side. And if he does decide to endorse someone, it’s a sure sign they’re going to lose, just like the few candidates he’s endorsed for other races since he lost.

    Yep, you guys are screwed.

    Reply
  2. frank stetson

    I think once we determine exactly how DeSantis is burying the statistics on the daily death count in Florida, his goose will be cooked.

    Somewhere along this curve, DeSantis changed how the death statistics were tallied and suddenly the number of cases was gigantic while the death toll was, basically, in the noise. Having lived with Covid, I have never seen the case/death relationship that somehow Florida has miraculously achieved. I would hazard to guess that no other State in the nation has a better batting average on death than Florida right now, even though Florida is still, even with it’s massive reduction, a US leader in daily cases. More cases seems to result in less overall deaths in Florida, and only Florida.

    Given that DeSantis has already been caught mucking with the case numbers, mucking with vaccination centers, offering favoritism for vaccines, withholding vaccines from those not voting for him, and more, one can only consider that the change in Florida’s production of statistics resulting in so many less deaths that it now leads the nation in having the most cases and least deaths overall, a miraculous achievement not seen anywhere in the country, probably the world sure gives this observer pause to consider that the man is once again mucking with the numbers to increase his popularity falsely.

    Just saying, Larry.

    Halley, yeah, she’s the real thing with only a bit of slippage to the orange-haired advocates, and formidable. But not to worry, the Trumpers probably won’t accept.

    But where I really disagree is in your perspective of the Republican party not being firmly in Trump’s hands, with only a 20% base. Come on Larry, you’re one of the few that even dare to voice opposition, still believing you can hold your nose to avoid the stink. Surprised they haven’t started their physical attacks on you and your posts. Most have turned brown shirt, love the rallies, and lost any sense of what it means to be a Conservative; they are Trumpers, plain and simple. On the floor of Congress, they are still pushing The Big Lie in Arizona after Trump’s hand-selected recount went totally bust. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, all currently, actively, bowing the The Big Lie with recounts being pursued. They will still be doing Trump’s Big Lie bidding in 2022. 2022 is full of Trumper-selected candidates, many wilder than even Trump.

    Nope Larry, 2024 is not even on the calendar; it’s all 2022 right now, that 2022 is all Trump, all the time, as is the entire Republican Party, even you

    In for a peck, in for a pound, Larry.

    Reply
    • larry Horist

      Frank … it is the Democrat strategy to make 2022 all about a demonized Trump and GOP. Since you do not hang around in Republican circles, I can understand you opinion — largely gotten from the left wing media. Whatever one things of the 2020 presidential elections, you should not fail to note the shellacking the Dems got down ballot. And you inadvertently gave some evidence in support of my opinion. You are surprised that my more objective view of Trump is not getting a lot of nasty response. Could it be because there are not as many Trump diehards as you, the Dems and the media like to suggest? As I travel in Republican circles, I find that most of the folks I meet are more aligned to my opinion than to the Dems cult narrative. I guess we will have to see what happens in 2022. At this point, I would say another shellacking for the Dems. I also do not believe that the Trump base is large enough to get him the GOP nomination in 2024. Youi may have read that in a previous commentary, I gave him less than 50/50 chance. I still believe that.

      Reply
  3. Carlos adkins

    No, Trump isn’t going to jail. He’s coming back to the White House. But you two fools hate America so much perhaps it’s time for you to go.

    Reply

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