Who will be the GOP candidate in 2024?
Looking through the long lens – past the 2022 midterm elections –who will be among the potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination?
The faction of the Republican Party that is devoted to Trump – something in the 20 percent range – believes it will be Trump. Their enthusiasm for the former President is unabated. Ironically, the left-wing media seems to have the same impression – but for very different reasons. Trump’s base believes that he is unbeatable, and the left-wing media folks believe Trump is unelectable.
Many opine that the GOP presidential nomination is Trump’s to lose. Au contraire. While he does have a path to the presidency, it is a very difficult one. He is going to have to expand his voter base and he is going to have to cross a minefield of court cases and investigations.
Trump’s decision may be influenced by the results of the 2022 midterm elections. A big gain for Republicans – especially Trump endorsed candidates – will provide some incentive for Trump to run. If the GOP does not gain at least one chamber of Congress, Trump is probably unelectable – with little chance to be nominated.
He is likely to have competition – but not the 16 or more opponents to divide up the vote as was the case om 2016. His base is not big enough to produce the plurality required to defeat one or two other candidates – and it may even be smaller today than it was when he came down the escalator.
Early polls – too early, to be sure – suggest that there are a few potential candidates who poll better than Trump. The two most likely are Florida Senator Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. DeSantis is basically in a tie with Trump and Haley with a slight lead over Trump.
Since the left-wing media is tied to the Democrats efforts to win the upcoming elections, they have reacted to the polling numbers that suggest DeSantis or Haley could be the candidate. They have put the two Republicans in the crosshairs of their pro-Democrat propaganda attack machine.
The left-wing so-called news services – that have replaced objective journalism with an endless loop of essentially negative campaign ads against the GOP – have started their assault on DeSantis and Haley. Any other Republican candidate who appears credible for a 2024 run can expect the same vicious treatment.
The smallest portion of the Trump base gets the greatest attention from the media, but they still represent only a fraction of the Republican voters. And that does not count the lost sheep – those who abandoned the Republican Party because of Trump. There is no telling how many of them will vote against Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries should he decide to run.
I do not believe that the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is Trump’s to lose. Delving into the numbers, I think it would be VERY difficult for him to win the nomination if there is any reasonable alternative. I believe that any credible candidate – such as DeSantis, Haley or a few others who have the fortitude to challenge Trump — will be the 47th President of the United States.
You can tuck this commentary into a “reminder file” – and see if I am right or wrong.
So, there ‘tis.