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Who do voters prefer … issue by issue (Part 2 of 2)

Who do voters prefer … issue by issue (Part 2 of 2)

In Part 1, I covered the latest polling based on the trust the American people have in basic institutions.  The level of trust is generally low – especially in the governmental institutions.  Congress comes in last with only 7 percent of the population expressing trust in the House and Senate.

In this commentary, I look at the issues in terms of voter sentiment as to which party they believe best handles the particular issue.  

Here are the results.

Issue DEM REP SPREAD (D v. R)

Climate change 52 37 +15D

Abortion 50 42 +8D

Voting Rights 49 43 +6D

Pandemic 47 44 +3D

Gun policy 47 47 —

Protect Democracy 45 46 +1R

Foreign Policy 41 49 +8R

Crime 39 52 +13R

Inflation 36 55 +19R

Border Security 36 55 +19R

To see which Party may have an advantage, it is informative to rank them by voter preference as an election determinant.  Virtually every poll lists inflation as the number one concern.  That is where Republicans have a 19-point advantage over Democrats.  The second issue in most polls is crime – and Republicans have a 13-point advantage in that on.

When you get to the third issue and beyond, the polls tend to diverge.  The Covid Pandemic, Gun Policy, and Border Security are the most common in the third slot.  President Biden and Democrats have a slight edge in handling the Pandemic – although within the margin of error.

In view of the criticism heaped on the GOP by the media in terms of gun policy, it is surprising to find that the voters evenly divide their trust between Democrats and Republicans.  That is a blow to Democrats, who see that as one of their better campaign issues.

In terms of border security, Republicans have a 19-point lead over democrats.  That is costing Democrats traditional votes along the southern border – especially among Latinos.

Most surveys place climate change, abortion, and voting rights further down the line as a voting determinant.  That is more bad news for Democrats since those are the issues where voters tend to favor Democrats.

Another that stood out to me was protecting democracy.  For more than two years the Democratic Party and the left-leaning media have been carrying on an unrelenting campaign — branding the GOP as the party of insurrection.  They allege that handing government power to Republicans will bring about the fall of America’s democratic Republic.  And yet, the voters in this survey give the GOP a 1-point edge in defending democracy – in the margin of error, of course.  This suggests that all the media reports and all the hype of the Select Committee have only won over mostly predisposed Democrat voters.

The Democrats’ entire strategy to prevent a shellacking in the 2022 midterm elections is based on four issues – climate change, abortion, gun control, and that alleged insurrection.  And it appears that there is not sufficient voter steam in any of them to sway the vote.

And with only weeks to go before the first voters start casting ballots.in mid-September, there is very little opportunity to change the political trajectory for this election.  The only chance would be some VERY big bombshell surprise before election day.  It has to be a surprise since there is nothing imaginable on the horizon at this moment that would be big enough to push Democrat candidates into the lead.

Some will disagree with my analysis.  That is fair.  We will have to see how things play out in November.  For now, it is only an academic discussion.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry HoristLarry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

3 Comments

  1. Ted

    We need republicans in control or we will lose our country It’s hanging by a thread now. The bid issue is the 2nd amendment. We must preserve it at all costs. The woke shit needs to be struck down and buried. It’s completely lacking in common sense

  2. frank stetson

    How can you have part 2 when part 1 has a different title?

    How can you have a story about best handling of issues by the respective party based on a survey of confidence in institutions by the different parties? It appears that Larry might be using a different survey.

    And then how can you have a story about party handling of issues and leave the independents out?

    If you have a two part story with each part based on a different topic, isn’t that really just two stories?

    We know where part 1 comes from, survey-wise. Larry has not sourced his material for part 2 and it’s most certainly not the same survey he used in part 1 I am pretty sure. Probably still Gallup, but I didn’t see a source in the text. So, unlike Prego, it’s just not in there.

    These are Larry’s opinions, can’t argue that, but it would be nice to see the source of all those numbers…….

  3. spaceman spiff

    The only fear I have from a Republican victory in November is the effect that it may have on climate change progress. I used to be somewhat of a denier, but now feel that may be the one thing in this world overriding all other considerations. What I hope for is someone staying the course to continue developing alternate energy, revamping nuclear plants with new reactors, building new small nuclear plants with PROVEN technology of “ship-sized” reactors for smaller areas, and making sure we DON’T take any power plants off line until we have sufficient newer and cleaner generators to replace them. We need to go into seawater desalination in a VERY serious way. If not, we’ll start to starve because agriculture will ALWAYS need water to grow crops. People will always need water to survive. Our east and west coasts sit on oceans. There are one and a half QUINTILLION tons of seawater out there, waiting to be used. So, let’s get with it and build a LOT more of these plants and get the filters into mass production.
    As for the political stuff, I don’t trust either side more than just a little. I salute the decision to reverse Roe v. Wade. It takes one of the unconstitutional laws from the Feds and gives power to regulate abortion back to the States where it belongs. We need to have more such decisions, to get the Federal Government out of our lives and doing the jobs it’s supposed to be doing. We need to end the stimulus packages, find a way to slow down and reverse the trends of constantly giving away everything free at government behest, and encourage people to get back to work and make something of themselves.
    There are only two people in the Senate that I implicitly trust with no reservations. Sen James Lankford, an avowed openly Born Again Christian, and Sen Jim Inhofe, who a few years ago passed on Marshaling the Tulsa “Holiday” parade and instead went to another city to host the CHRISTMAS parade. These are two guys who are of the old school. They are for God, the United States of America, and “doing the right things”. We need lots more folks in our legislature than just these two. I’m sure there are others. We just need to have more of them. If we could get half of the legislature to act in the actual interests of the people of this nation as a whole instead of getting embroiled in stuff like Gender Identity and other side issues, we’d likely get a lot more done and more effectively.
    Yeah, POWER to the people – in other words solve our energy crisis with solid solutions for the future. DO NOT SET UNREALISTIC DATES for changes from fossil fuels to other energy sources. Being an engineer, I KNOW you CANNOT tell yourself at work “Today I will be brilliant and solve the major problem of our day.” It just doesn’t work that way. Inspiration comes to the researcher when it comes. Not on a schedule. Yes, we need to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels for one important reason that no one wants to acknowledge. They are a FINITE resource and once they are gone, we MUST have something else. So, get to work on that….