
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For some of my friends, it is premature to address the Trump presidency in the past tense. Their hope for a dramatic shift in the vote calculations springs eternal. ; I admire their tenacity and loyalty – and would be happy to discover that they were more prescient – or better informed &#8212; than me. ; Unfortunately, I must stick with my sad belief that former Vice President Joe Biden will be the 46<sup>th</sup> President of the United States.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I can only imagine the grim future we face with the enhanced power of the radical left. ; Regardless of whether Biden will govern from center left or far left, the most radical wing of the Democratic Party wields greater power than ever – even greater than in the left-wing authoritarian days of Franklin Roosevelt and his openly socialist Vice President Henry Wallace.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Those of us on the conservative side will be battling in a political war that has been declared on our principles, our leaders – and on us personally. ; That will consume the future.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Any questions over the presidency – and who will sit in the Oval Office after January 20<sup>th</sup> – should be settled on December 14<sup>th </sup>when the Electoral College meets to cast their votes. ; They are empowered by the Constitution to select the future President. ; They are not bound by popular vote, certification of the states or anything but their own reason for casting their individual votes. ; Although there have been “faithless electors” who did not vote as they promised or as their state certified – but they are rare and have never changed an outcome.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">So, what role will President Trump play in future politics? ; Does he even have a political future?</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To some extent, his future may depend on how he ultimately surrenders power to Biden – or if he engages in any mischief as his hate-driven critics conjecture. ; I do not believe he will. ; Regardless, as of January 21<sup>st</sup>, Trump will be a private citizen again.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Trump has a sizeable constituency of die-hard personal loyalists – arguably in the range of 20 to 25 million people. ; They will give him power as a charismatic leader –a role Trump most certainly will want to play. ; But they are not a majority even in the Republican Party.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A second problem is all those messy legal issues and court cases that were held at bay by the shield of the presidency. ; Though his critics would wish otherwise, Trump is not particularly vulnerable for his actions as President of the United States. ; However, he has been the target in a number of suspended investigations for matters dealing with his pre-presidency business activities. ; The most serious appears to be tax evasion or even tax fraud. ; Conviction on such felony charges often results in jail time.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This creates a dilemma for Democrats – and especially Biden. ; While we often refer to the rule-of-law and that no person is above the law, we also cringe at the thought of putting an ex-President in the hoosegow. It is one of those sociological anomalies that could work against Democrats for even attempting to jail Trump for any reason.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The most significant question is whether Trump would wish to – or will attempt to – return to the Oval Office in January of 2025. ; From what we know of him as a tenacious individual who never likes being the loser at the end of the game, he is likely to want to pursue that restorative possibility.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">No candidate for President ever looked more done than did Vice President Richard Nixon after his defeat in 1960 followed by his defeat for California governor in 1962. ; Even he was dubious of a comeback when he told reporters that “you will not have Richard Nixon to kick around anymore.” ; Six years later, he was elected President of the United States.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It may be that Trump’s only chance at political relevancy would be a run in 2024. ; He is not about to get a college presidency, become CEO of a major foundation or get a major media gig.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The press that has never given Trump a fair shake during his presidency will continue to accentuate the negative if and when they give him any coverage at all. ; ; They would be more than happy to turn his public persona into the invisible man. ; With Trump, that will not be easy – maybe impossible.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There is also an issue of age. ; Trump would be 79 years old on January 20, 2025. President Reagan was thought to be too old for a comeback when he lost the Republican nomination in 1976, but he was elected in 1980. ; He was then 69 years old – the oldest first-term President until Trump was elected at the age of 71. ; Biden trumped Trump by being elected at the age of 78. ; If Trump were to make a comeback, he would be 79 on Inauguration Day. ; A lot for Trump may depend on how well Biden survives his years in the White House. ; Too many senior moments or any incapacities would probably doom a late-age comeback for Trump.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Then there is the fundamental question: Would Trump stand a chance of again securing the Republican nomination and going on to victory. ; Nothing is impossible, but here are a few things working against Trump.</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>As noted above, age would be a factor. The nation’s tendency to seek a new generation of leadership from time-to-time has been thwarted by a succession of older and older nominees. ; Republicans have several good younger choices to offer up.</li><li>In 2016, Trump won despite his personality, in 2020, he lost because of it. Unless he has a personality transplant, his negatives will still be very high.</li><li>He won the 2016 GOP nomination on a technicality – a fluke, if you will. He never would have made it were it not for such a large field of opponents dividing up the vote.  ;He also faced an extraordinarily unpopular Democrat candidate. ; That is not likely to happen again.</li><li>He has not expanded his support base. He is not going out on a wave of popularity. ; The greatest erosion will be among those who winced over his personality but voted on issues. ; They will be looking for a candidate that reflects their issues without the drag of a rather unpleasant and provocative personality. ; Many cast ballots for Trump when it was a binary choice – when the Democrat candidates were the greater of two evils. ; That will not be the case when presented with a choice among numerous candidates in future Republican primaries.</li><li>If the investigations result in criminal convictions – even without jail time – the chances of a comeback would collapse to near zero.</li><li>Better alternatives. Conservative Republicans will have a number of good choices in 2024 – better known and better liked than they were in 2016. That includes Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator and Ted Cruz. ; Less appealing to conservatives, but still with potential, is Utah Senator Mitt Romney.</li></ol>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If you are inclined to play the odds, I rate the chances of a Trump comeback as less than 50/50. ; But that is still a better chance than I gave him in 2016. ; So as Trump so often says, we’ll have to wait and see.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

Where Goest Trump from Here
