What happened to all the really important issues?
We are weeks away from Election (counting) Day. In some states, ballots are already being cast – which is a good reason to shorten the early voting period.
As a political consultant, I routinely advise my client-candidates that elections are won on what voters decide to decide upon. That division has come into stark contrast in the 2024 presidential election.
Team Harris has two issues upon which they want voters to decide – abortion and Donald Trump. Team Trump wants voters to have immigration, inflation and crime on their minds as they cast their ballots.
That theoretically gives Trump the edge since a majority of voters put the economy, immigration and crime as the top issues of concern. According to polls, Trump dominates on all those issues by a wide margin. In a normal year (which we can all agree this is not) those numbers would lead to a big victory for Trump and down ballot Republicans.
The abortion issue remains low on the voters’ list of top concerns – rarely making it into the top ten. That leaves Trump – the man/the personality – as the Democrats’ only winnable issue. Unfortunately for Trump, they – with the unseemly help of a crony news media – are making it work.
Team Harris is also getting help from another surprising source – Team Trump. They are creating issues that (1) distract from the really important issues and (2) reinforce the bad dangerous Trump personality narrative.
So, what two issues have dominated the news in recent days? Childless cat ladies. Adults without children. Migrants eating cats and dogs.
If is not uncommon for campaigns to create arbitrary issues that have no meaning beyond the election. I first learned that way back in the 1960 contest between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon. Two of the biggest issues were the fate of the islands of Quemoy and Matsu and the so-called “missile gap.” They were no longer an issue after the election.
Whoever wins this year, the subjects of childless folks and animal cuisine will be lost forever. But for now, they are an issue. They are taking away the spotlight from the economy, immigration and crime. And they are an unforced error by Team Trump.
A person’s reason or desire to not have children is a personal situation – and not one that suggests a personality problem. Yes, there is a legitimate concern over the serious drop in birth rates. And yes, abortion is one of the factors in both the birth rate and in individual decisions to not have children. But …beating up on people without children is both wrong and stupid. It is even counterproductive in terms of winning votes.
Governor Sarah Huckabee’s attack on Harris for not having biological children was inexplicable – from the standpoint of fact and political strategy. She did have stepchildren. Having raised kids who were not biologically related to me or my wife, I consider raising adopted or acquired children as legitimate parenthood. You love them and nurture them just as much as your own because they become your own.
I still have a problem getting my head around the cat-eating Haitians story. That story has suffocated a real concern for the negative impact of the Biden/Harris immigration policies on America’s small towns and big cities.
It is this kind of nonsense that gives credibility to the bad Trump narrative. I am not sure how many unforced errors Team Trump can make and still win the election, but they seem to be determined to find out.
Unless Trump and the Republicans get back on the economy, immigration, crime and foreign policy, they will lose an election that has been Trump’s to lose for several months.
So, there ‘tis.
Mr. Horist, since you brought up feline favorites, I’m gonna merge Dempsey’s charade for picking on Hillary for on the same topic. He has banned free speech on his thread, perhaps a good idea in his case.
Also, Amazon is liberally literally out to get you. If you Amazon search on horist or larry p horist, up comes books by Horst, sometimes Horst P Horst. They are more certainly not yours. Just fyi, you are a tough search on Amazon, so keep putting your links up here.
OK, first PEW states as top ten issues, according to voters, about 9/2: economy, healthcare, scotus appointments, foreign policy, immigration, gun policy, abortion, racial/ethnic inequality, and climate change.
That’s all voters but scotus pulled heavily by Harris voters. Top three Trump issues: economy, immigration, and violent crime (see, marketing does work and you people fear the invisible threat based on lies), Top three Harris issues: healthcare, scotus, and economy. But abortion trails economy by 1 point so within the margin of error, statistically equivalent. If you conclude abortion aka scotus is not a major reason Trump will lose, if he loses, you are wrong. It’s an artifact of polling where you TELL the people these issues and ask importance. Then you look at a sample with 50 of each party. Suddenly, Republican issues are AS IMPORTANT as Democrat issues and vice-versa.
The medium is the message. If the voters were split 50/50, there are the election results. But they aren’t, and then we put the electoral college, state’s rights, spin on top to obliterate majority rules. And maybe you just don’t end up voting on the issues. Like you said, each side has voters voting down the other side.
But if you are voting Harris, or if you desire women to control their own choices, abortion and scotus are damned important and you have already lost on this issue alone. We don’t even have to care about the rest.
Look at violent crime issue: number three in Trumpland and it isn’t even a problem. It’s lower than ever. Good marketing. Plus he ties it into immigration when it’s a statistical truth that you are safer in a group of immigrants than in a group of native Americans.
You keep hyping abortion is a weak issue. Good, keep saying that. Let it become part of you to tell people they don’t think it’s important because your side does not.
Yes, I agree Trump is shooting himself in the foot and other places. His Vance pick only makes it worse since Vance seems to be politically suicidal and if Trump loses, will disappear into the halls of Congress to be one-termed asap. Personally, I am wondering if the down-ticket Trump endorsements like his NC pick will give us NC and maybe —- Congress. Yes, I can dream, but that’s how bad he seems to be screwing up.
I am in the camp that says, run those rallies live, put him on camera as much as possible. It only helps Harris for the undecided to watch the deranged demented. Even FOX, who loves him, agrees. Go for the edited sound bites and keep the weave off the air. It’s weird sounding.
Harris on the other hand seems to be getting base hit after base hit, few strikes, no outs. The October surprise seems to be all Trump, all Vance so far in a little place called Springfield and totally on them. On that one, Dempsey is all a flutter because Hillary (who?), has said people should use civil litigation against disinformation. Somehow, Dempsey and the rabid right, has defined this as ending free speech? As morphing it into us against them which can only be true if you lie and don’t. Since disinformation can come from either side of the aisle, Dempsey is wrong to say we are weaponizing corrupt institutions to do our biding and you are holy. It’s disinformation and lies some want to stop, not politics. In reality, it’s using the rule of law, and as anyone knows, liability requires harm for the win. Therefore, there is no free speech to harm another, and the law protects that. And in the case of the Vance and Trump lies in Springfield, the entire community has been harmed so there’s the seed of a case. But can you prove it? Extra costs to man the bomb threats. Kids losing school time as if a covid surge. Yada, yada, yada.
Hillary is right. The right is wrong. We SHOULD use the court to bring liars, propagandists, disinformation mavens, to justice to be liable for actual harms they incur. Just like Jones. And Trump n company is a prime candidate, Springfield is a great example. If you pick the loser, if you have the power to cause harm, if harm is caused, you SHOULD be liable in court. It is the law. Of course, we give some leeway to pick on the rich and famous, but only some leeway, not immunity, and Springfield is not that, far from it.
All elections are of the heart as much as of the mind. As I said, a hot summer, fourth hottest on record actually, and as Trump fears the final outcome, it will get much hotter as he unravels tossing incendiary word burgers at the walls. Just watch the polls to foreshadow the melt-down. On top of that is his age. He’s looking bad, mixing up words, stalling mid thought, sweating, and the weave — the weave is getting really boring.
But Larry, look at the poll construction, 50/50. The issue list is pre-arranged, not selected by the surveyed. Look at each candidate’s voter responses on the issues, really diverse, rendering the average pretty useless. And the other picture where abortion is neck in neck for number three priority for Harris voters and that’s a different picture than you suggest.
And remember, were issues or appearance more important for JFK? Or just the Camelot effect. Was it issues or charisma for Reagan? And Clinton: good or bad marketing depending on gender? In the end, Highlander, there can be only one decision and all of us use our tummy as the final decider. Go with the gut. Otherwise, how could you pass by character in favor of policy for this man. What scale allows you to forget a felony of this nature? Or do you see HIS character and choose him anyway because no better alternative present while rationalizing it’s about policy? I mean, really, health care is still a hot issue and he gave up within his first weeks of disservice. Yet he still tips the scale favorably against his policy failures and his horrid character.
Sure, we both think issues, but really, is that all we put into the process? Probably not, and he loses to Harris bigtime on the surround.
Frank Stetson … I checked “horist” on Amazon and came up with my books. No idea who Karen Horist is with the anime porn … and Bill Horist is my oldest son. A leading composer/performer of experimental music. Also an accomplished undersea diver/photographer.
You can’t really discuss issues when Felon Trump continually lies about them.
– Economy: Felon Trump claims he had the best economy (and in his normal exaggeration, “of all time”. Wrong, big fat lie. He started with a long streak of decreasing unemployment and ended his term at 8%. Gas prices went down because people weren’t driving, but food prices went up and there were shortages of items in the groceries because of his handling of COVID. The economy grew at a slower rate than during either Obama’s or Biden’s terms. In fact, we were close to being in a recession when he got booted from office.
– Crime: Claims it’s higher now. Wrong, big fat lie. After declining for years during Obama’s term, it went up during Felon Trump’s term, and started falling again when Biden came into office. Yet, most Republicans still believe Felon-Trump’s lies.
– Healthcare: Felon Trump spent his term trying to destroy Obamacare. Biden strengthened Obamacare and reduced prescription costs for people. Felon Trump says he has a “concept of a plan”. Yeah, right, like his healthcare and infrastructure plans that he promised “in two weeks” for his entire term in office.
– Immigration: Illegal immigration during Felon Trump’s term was higher than during Obama’s term. Biden tried to get Congress to do something about immigration policy, but Felon Trump sabotaged it in Congress. Biden went went around Congress, and has now cut illegal immigration to less than half.
– Environment: Trump actively reduced regulations designed to improve the environment and boost fossil fuel use. Worst record of any President, before or after him.
– Abortion: there is no worse candidate than Felon Trump.
– Jobs: Biden invested in infrastructure, which created millions of jobs. Felon Trump annonced his infrastructure policy every two weeks for his entire term, and never got a single bill out.
– Abortion: Felon Trump has been all over the map. But Larry is the one telling lies in this case – Abortion is a major issue, and Republicans would like for it to go away. Sorry, suckers, you used it as a wedge issue to continually get the evangelical vote, and Trump screwed it up by actually killing Roe v Wade. You dogs chased the car, and when you caught it it didn’t know what to do with it. Every mid-term election since SCOTUS took down Roe, Democrats have won on abortion. It will be a major factor in this election too.
– Honesty: When Felon Trump lies about his record, yes, his lies become the issue that is talked about. It seems that if candidate can’t tell the truth about ANYTHING, the candidates truthfullness and character itself ought to be a topic of discussion. Another major topic, since Felon Trump is a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist, and it’s easy to “roll the tapes” and catch his many lies.
– Age: Republicans beat Biden over the head about his age, and now the shoe is on the other foot. Felon Trump continues to fumble his way through the campaign, looks REALLY tired and beaten, and seems to have given up. He relies on tired old conspiracy theories to jazz up his base, but it doesn’t play anywhere else. And (not for the first time) his lies are causing bomb threats and violence against a minority group, even as he admits that the story is made up and they use it over and over again anyway.
There are lots of issues, and contrary to Larry’s thinking, they are being talked about. He just doesn’t hear the ones that Republicans are losing on.
Bruder, you will hereby from now on be known as felon Bruder.
Joseph S Bruder … You say you “can’t really discuss issues when Felon Trump continually lies about them.” And then you write your jaded opinion in a long screed — discussing the issues. LOL It is okay if you do not discuss issues since your brain seems to operate on talking points like a political parrot — not fact and intelligent analysis. I find that most observers agree with my contention that there is not enough focus and real dialogue on really important issues. Harris is especially issue challenged.
Pick any other country in the world. Communistic, socialist, whatever they choose to be.
Let the leader of that country be challenged for office or position.
Let the two speak to the people.
Let one individual NOT answer any direct questions to the benefit of their people, and let the other answer all questions.
We in the United States watch this happen.
Who would our Military, Business leaders, Industry, People look at for who is best to
the benefit of our country.
Obviously the silent one, NOT benefitting the people of their country.
Enough said!
After voting in every election since 1972 I have come to the conclusion that the winner is not decided based on the issues but how they make the voter feel. Each candidate has their hardcore voters who will vote for them no matter what, it’s the unknown number of voters in the middle who get to decide the winner.
Who generates more confidence in their ability to govern?
A 78 year old man who is experiencing dementia or a 60 year old woman who gets people to get excited about her, even if they haven’t a clue what she is talking about?
You tell me.
Whether or not pets are being eaten, having a small town’s population increase by half again, all rather unassimilated refugees, cannot possibly be other than disruptive and very demanding on resources and infrastructure; and even if the refugees are neither criminal nor of bad intent, can’t help but harm the people of the town to some degree, as perhaps innocent enough but still dangerous accidents will occur.
Of course the reality that something is a problem even if not a really dramatic emotional issue won’t fit well into sound bites and rallies.
Larry, did a new picture of you above your PBP bio receive an update, or is the picture of another?
Also, after years and years of readers’ in their reply comments given evidence of facts which contradict the points you contend with each commentary, yet you have not conceded a single inch in all that time.
It’s a fact, a stalwart Republican you are and the Republican Party may rely on your vote in November in this election. That is a sure bet.
This particular year’s battle for the Top spot appears to be close at this time as percentages go. But, history of elections past has shown that the popular vote count majority may not, ultimately take the prize.
Close wins have been turned on their head by an anomaly in our Constitution, Electoral College vote count is its name. In recent memory Donald Trump became the unwitting and surprised beneficiary when that anomaly has been applied.
Whether, or not, the Electoral College serves its original purpose, which the Fore Fathers envisioned, is a question. This matter has been considered my Congress. That body has alway kicked the EC politically rife can to a later Congressional Committee.
So, if this election’s popular vote does not give an overwhelming majority win and the result is determined by the Electoral College. Then, Congress could be forced into reconsidering the EC’s relevance in US presidential elections today considering what the Fore Fathers’ purpose was originally
Candidate Trump’s team assuredly is thinking of the EC and those states with the most delicates voting.
turnout may