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What Does the Fed Rate Hikes Mean for the Future of the Economy?

<p>At the end of last week&comma; the Federal Reserve officially ruled to increase the short-term interest rates by &period;25&percnt;&period; This wasn&rsquo&semi;t much of a shock&comma; considering Fed officials said there would be likely three increases this year&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>But as usual&comma; investors are trying to predict how this is going to impact the economy&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Investors have been quietly panicking over the impending interest raises because like Edson Gould&rsquo&semi;s supposed rule says that &ldquo&semi;whenever the Federal Reserve raises either the federal funds target rate&comma; margin requirements&comma; or reserve requirements three times without a decline&comma; the stock market is likely to suffer a substantial&comma; perhaps serious&comma; setback&period;&rdquo&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>But&comma; so far that hasn&rsquo&semi;t been the case&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;Normally&comma; when the Fed raises short-term interest rates&comma; it does so to tighten financial market conditions&period; By making it slightly more expensive for households and businesses to borrow&comma; the Fed hopes to slow the economy modestly and prevent it from overheating&comma; which can result in higher inflation&period; If successful&comma; the Fed can preserve gains in employment while keeping inflation low and stable&comma;&rdquo&semi; writes&nbsp&semi;<em>The Hill&period;<&sol;em><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;However&comma; following the decision to raise short-term interest rates on Wednesday&comma; equity markets rallied&comma; long-term Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened &lpar;making U&period;S&period; exports less expensive&rpar;&period; All these moves suggest it is easier for firms and households to borrow and spend today than it was before the Fed met this week&period; What gives&quest; Why did financial conditions ease instead of tighten after the Fed raised interest rates&quest;&rdquo&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>This is an excellent question&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Investors have been optimistic about a Trump presidency&period; It&rsquo&semi;s likely income taxes will decrease and more jobs will be created&period; These are all great things for the economy&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said the agency is confident in the outlook of the economy&comma; but has been relatively vague&period; This is causing some financial analysts to be fearful of the impact of the rise in rates and how many there will be&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>There is a real chance that there may be four increases this year&comma; instead of the three expected&period; Bill Stone&comma; chief investment strategist at PNC believes that incoming data shows a &ldquo&semi;possibility of four planned hikes in 2017&period;&rdquo&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>According to&nbsp&semi;<em>The Hill<&sol;em>&comma; the fed is being cautious for a reason&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;The Fed&comma; in our view&comma; appears to be waiting for actual evidence that inflation is rising faster &mdash&semi; or unemployment is falling further &mdash&semi; than it thought before telling markets it is ready to normalize more quickly&comma;&rdquo&semi; writes&nbsp&semi;<em>The Hill&period;<&sol;em>&nbsp&semi;&ldquo&semi;For now&comma; the Fed seems content to follow the plans it laid out in December&period;&rdquo&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><strong>Author&rsquo&semi;s note&colon;<&sol;strong> Again&comma; the Fed increases interest rates to slow down an overheated economy and it decreases rates to stimulate the economy&period; However&comma; the real problem of the current economy lies in the fact that under Obama&ndash&semi; growth rates have been so slow that the interest rates have been effectively zero&period; This means that the Fed has been powerless to do anything to stimulate growth&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Trump has promised to bring the economy out of the gutter&period; The interest rate hike signals two things that the economy is doing well enough that they can increase it and that if the economy does turn bad&comma; they will have some room to stimulate it&ndash&semi; rather than being against a wall like during Obama administration&period;&nbsp&semi;Wall Street should be happy because now the economy can be under control again&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p class&equals;"MsoNormal" style&equals;"margin&colon; 0px&semi; color&colon; &num;222222&semi; font-family&colon; arial&comma; sans-serif&semi; font-size&colon; small&semi;">&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;

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