
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Most of the reporting on the Russian invasion focus on land acquisition. In many ways, that is the least of the danger facing the free world if Russian acquires Ukraine. ; There are three other considerations of greater importance than the mere acquisition of more land.</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list"><li><strong>Strategic Advantage</strong>. ; Though it is related to the issue of land, it is the location of that land that multiplies the danger. ; If Russia were to annex all of Ukraine and Moldova – which is the objective of Russia’s current aggression – it would put the Russian armed forces across NATO’s eastern border.</li></ol>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Remember that one school of thought was that Putin did not want NATO on his border. Ukraine, Moldova, and Finland were seen as unaligned buffer states. ; But if that was true, Putin would not be attempting to put himself on the border of NATO by eliminating the buffer states. ; He is very happy to have Russia border NATO as long as he controls the other side of an expanding Russian border. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It has been a very serious mistake for American and allied diplomats to proffer and act on their own flawed analysis of “buffer-states.” ; In erroneously accepting Russian propaganda on that issue, the west has rejected pushing NATO membership for Ukraine – leaving Putin the option to invade.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The idea that being a buffer-state offered a measure of independence and safety for those nations. ; <em>Au contraire</em>. ; Finland remained out of NATO on that theory. ; Now that the world has seen Putin’s intentions, Finland is eager to join the Alliance. ; They understand that should Russia take Ukraine and Moldova, Finland is the only non-aligned nation on Russia’s western border.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Any expansion of landmass gives a nation more strategic value in positioning its military and gaining intelligence – conversely shrinking those benefits for adversaries. ; That is what has already happened to the United States in the Middle East in terms of Syria, Iraq &#8212; and especially with Afghanistan thanks to the appeasement policies of the western diplomatic elite.</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="2"><li><strong>Asset Acquisition</strong>. ; If Russia takes control of Ukraine, they acquire the rich mineral and agricultural assets of Ukraine. ; That is more than they get by beating the United States in Syria. ; Ukraine is a major world supplier of critical minerals. ; The nation holds five percent of the earth’s critical minerals. Including such ores as titanium and iron – in addition to a wide range of non-metallic raw materials. ; It is a major source of natural gas. ; If those resources fall into the hands of Russia, it would be a profound disaster for the west.</li></ol>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Ukraine is also called the “breadbasket of Europe” for good reason. ; And they are a major supplier of foods around the world, including nations in Africa. ; This is already evident in the grain that has been stolen from Ukraine during the war. ; Millions upon millions of metric tons of grains have been seized. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Farm production has been slowed down by the war, and distribution points strategically targeted by Russian missiles. ; With control of Ukraine’s arable soil, Russia can expand its oil-based economy as a significant supplier of food to the world. ; It would do to some nations, what oil has done to even NATO nations such as Germany and Hungary.  ; Control the energy and the food and you control the nation – and a lot of the world.</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="3"><li><strong>Shifting Alliances</strong>. ; No one aligns with a loser. ; There are three types of nations that America and the west need to worry about. ; The enemies and those already aligned with the enemies of democracy – and there are a lot of them. ; Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Belarus, Cuba, Venezuela, and a few more.</li></ol>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Then there are those who shift allegiance depending on where the economic and military power lies. ; Nations like Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, Austria, and most of southeast Asia.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And finally, even allies who will find it a matter of pragmaticism to depend more on Russia and China. ; Even NATO nations like Germany, Hungary, and Turkey.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">America as lost a LOT of prestige and respect in recent years. ; Enemies do not fear the United States, and allies are less trusting. The United States&#8217; role as a world leader is diminished and seriously threatened – another loss, this time in Ukraine, could be an existential blow to that leadership.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There is a lot more at stake in terms of the war in Ukraine. ; The global attack on worldwide democracy – and the nations that embrace it &#8212; has begun in real time in terms of cyber warfare, economic warfare, and diplomatic warfare on America and NATO. ; We are at a tipping point. ; The west must not only stop Putin. ; He must be defeated – Russia must be defeated. ; That means withdrawal and reparations – and probably regime changes in Moscow.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That is a heavy load – some say impossible. ; But if we do not defeat Russia, the future for America and global democracies become very grim.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>Part 3 will deal with how a regime change might happen – and the good and bad options.</em></p>

What a Russian victory means to America … and world democracy
