
<p>Virtually every news report these days explains how Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing the war in Ukraine.</p>



<p>He was dramatically unsuccessful in his initial plan to take Kyiv.  ; He is currently losing some of the ground he gained in the early phases of the invasion– but he still controls more than he did prior to the invasion.</p>



<p>As evidence of Putin’s losing, we hear how he has had to conscript 300,000 more soldiers – and how they are unprepared. ; We hear about the terrible death toll among Russian forces – including a number of generals and commanders. ; They have lost a lot of military weapons and equipment. ; Supposedly, Putin is running out of major offensive missiles even as he is hitting Ukrainian cities on a daily basis.</p>



<p>Then there are the problems back home. ; Rather than be conscripted, young Russians are fleeing the country. ; Organic anti-war protests are erupting all over Mother Russia. The government news agencies are expressing criticism over the conduct of the war – although most say Putin needs to get tougher. ; It is rumored that even Putin insiders are expressing criticism.</p>



<p>And of course, most of the world’s nations have increased their criticism of Putin and demanded that he end the war in Ukraine – although they are not very specific about what that should look like.</p>



<p>We can all agree that the war has not gone as Putin would have liked. ; His hoped-for quick victory and possession of all of Ukraine has been dashed. ; But losing the war? ; If Putin was losing, Kyiv would be winning. ; Despite impressive victories – and a few symbolic actions, such as the sinking of the Moscow and the bombing of the Russia-Crimea bridge – Ukraine is not winning. ; And if Ukraine is not winning, then Putin is not losing.</p>



<p>He is not losing because of the west’s – and especially the United States – “too-little/too-late” policy. ; We allowed Putin’s build-up on the border without a countermove on the strategic chessboard. ; We dribbled out ineffective sanctions only after new egregious actions by Putin. We doled out critical weapons only after advances by Putin – and just enough to keep Ukraine from losing.</p>



<p>Amazingly, we still have unapplied sanctions – even after President Biden assured Kyiv and the world that we had hit Russia with all the sanctions on the shelf. ; He lied.</p>



<p>And now we are CONSIDERING sending sophisticated air defense weapons – but only after Putin shot-gunned hundreds of missiles and drones all over Ukraine – committing more war crimes in the process.</p>



<p>Along with all the weapons we have sent, there remains an admonition not to use them to attack military installations inside Russia. ; Putin can indiscriminately bomb every major city in Ukraine … can destroy the civilian infrastructure (and civilians) … steal the grain … and maintain troops on Ukraine soil … but Ukraine cannot attack Russian military staging sites and ammunition depots in Russia. ; That is a HUGE win for Putin. (Imagine the outcome of World War II if the Allies were not allowed to attack inside Germany and Japan.)</p>



<p>As long as the west’s policy is maintaining a war of attrition and “measured responses,” the war will go on needlessly – and Putin will eventually win. ;</p>



<p>Even though Ukraine is not a member of NATO, we do have a defense agreement that was the result of Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal. ; That was a preliminary win for Putin – and the fact that we will not uphold the agreement is another.</p>



<p>If this war is waged with Putin attacking and occupying Ukraine as he is protected from counterattacks by the United States and NATO policy … Putin wins.</p>



<p>At this point, the most likely acceptable outcome for Biden &; Co. is a negotiated settlement with Russia possessing a chunk of eastern Ukraine – and Ukraine with a destroyed infrastructure. ; If that is the outcome … Putin wins.</p>



<p>And by the way … to all those concerned about the cost of the war. ; A quick victory is a lot less costly than a looooong defeat – a lesson we should have learned in Afghanistan.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

We hear that Putin is losing the war. Really?
