
<p>Artillery shells have been exchanged between Ukraine and Russia, a kindergarten apparently damaged. Initial pictures show that the damage is relatively minor (but more are coming), and now we find that it was not Russia, it was Russia-backed rebels.</p>



<p>According to Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), there were “multiple shelling incidents” on Thursday morning in the Donbas region. Wait, &#8220;multiple&#8221; artillery shells means it is not an accident. Someone is doing this on purpose. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then&#8230;</p>



<p>Are we going to assume that Russia has lost control of a &#8220;Russia-back&#8221; group? </p>



<p>Fat chance.</p>



<p>Perhaps the best assessment I&#8217;ve seen (or at least the one I believe) NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he is &#8220;concerned that Russia is trying to stage a pretext for an armed attack against Ukraine. There is still no clarity, no certainty about the Russian intentions&#8221;</p>



<p>We have indications that, despite information yesterday that Russia was pulling back, they actually added 7000 troops.</p>



<p>I am listening to a speech at the United Nations. Many diplomats saying ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.</p>



<p>Will Biden come through with a last minute appeasement?</p>



<p>I&#8217;m sticking by my original assessment. Putin still doesn&#8217;t know if he will invade or accept an appeasement offer. He is good to go either way. He is now engaged in &#8220;brinksmanship&#8221; and will be entertaining offers. </p>



<p>He could take the next step and attack Ukraine, with the intention of being &#8220;reluctantly&#8221; dragged to the negotiating table to accept great appeasement offers. But Putin know there is risk there, perhaps heeding Mike Tyson&#8217;s advice &#8220;Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.&#8221; The military equivalent is &#8220;no plan survives first contact with the enemy.&#8221; </p>



<p>Beware of last minute grand gestures from the Biden Administration. They will be bad for us, and good for Putin. The pressure is on, as pictures start to come out on the damage done. The next set of pictures will likely contain bodies.</p>



<p>Putin wants to know if Biden can stomach this. That is a very good question.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img src="https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/QC6SBCNR6VNQBBKVCS4FOVDXAA.jpg" alt="An interior view shows a kindergarten, which according to Ukraine's military officials was damaged by shelling, in Stanytsia Luhanska in the Luhansk region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released February 17, 2022. Press Service of the Joint Forces Operation/Handout via REUTERS "/><figcaption>Kindergarten in Ukraine damaged by an artillery shell.</figcaption></figure>

War in Ukraine!!! Or is it?
