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US Factory Behavior Parallels Economic Slowdown

<p>US factory data suggests&nbsp&semi;that economic growth has slowed more than predicted during the first quarter&period; Order sheets show smaller quantities and business spending on capital goods has decreased&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The Commerce Department announced this week that new orders for manufactured goods have declined by 1&period;7&percnt; as a result of decreasing demand&period;&nbsp&semi;Such shrinkage has been reported during 14 of the past 19 months with a small 1&period;2&percnt; increase in January &lpar;downwardly revised from previously estimated 1&period;6&percnt;&rpar;&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>February saw a 2&period;5&percnt; drop in orders for non-defense capital goods &lpar;not including aircraft&rpar;&period; These &ldquo&semi;core capital goods&rdquo&semi; are viewed as a measure of spending plans and business confidence&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&&num;8220&semi;This morning&&num;8217&semi;s report suggests a more sluggish manufacturing sector in the early part of the quarter&comma;&&num;8221&semi; says Barclays economist Jesse Hurwitz&period; Estimates for first-quarter GDP growth are currently sitting below a 1&percnt; rate&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Economic growth slowed to a 1&period;4&percnt; annualized pace during the fourth quarter of 2015&period; This week&rsquo&semi;s report adds to weak trade and consumer spending data in suggesting further economic growth moderation&period;&nbsp&semi;This data altered US government bond prices while the US dollar dropped to a 2-week low vs the Japanese yen&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Manufacturing &lpar;roughly 12&percnt; of the US economy&rpar; has long faced pressure from a&nbsp&semi;weak global demand and a strong US dollar&comma; which have undermined exports of factory goods in addition to business owners&rsquo&semi; efforts to reduce an inventory overhang&period;&nbsp&semi;The sector has also been blasted by investment cuts by energy firms as they struggle to cope with smaller profits from cheaper oil&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>But the worst of it seems to be over&comma; reports Reuters&period; &ldquo&semi;We remain hopeful for some upcoming improvement in the data as many of these headwinds have either passed or faded&comma;&&num;8221&semi; says economist Dan Silver of JP Morgan&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>A survey last week shows an expansion in manufacturing activity &ndash&semi; the first in six months&period; The US dollar is bouncing back and the slide in oil prices seems to have slowed&period;&nbsp&semi;&&num;8220&semi;We have also been encouraged somewhat by some other more timely manufacturing indicators that have turned more mixed lately following a period of more widespread and severe weakness&comma;&rdquo&semi; says Silver&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;

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