
<p>Recalling California Governor Gavin Newsom may have been an impossible task from the onset. ; It only takes 65 voters to launch a recall petition drive. ; And getting 1.7 signatures from Republicans, disgruntled independents and even a few disaffected Democrats is far different than winning a majority of the 13 million people who cast ballots in the special recall referendum.</p>



<p>California has a peculiar recall system. ; At the same time voters decide the fate of the Governor, they are asked to select among the list of alternative candidates to be the replacement. ; There is no real opponent as you would find in a regular election. ; There is only a perceived opponent based on polling.</p>



<p>It is almost impossible for a recall to succeed if the target is a Democrat governor in a very blue state. ; Yes, it was done once before when Democrat Governor Gray Davis was removed from office and bodybuilder/actor Arnold Schwarzenegger was chosen to replace him. ; But that was when the registration advantage for Democrats was narrower. ; It was also a time when the partisan atmosphere was less acrid.</p>



<p>Some pundits say the size of the Newsom victory was impressive and significant. ; Maybe. ; Maybe not. ; Newsom’s margin of victory – 63 to 37 percent &#8212; was basically his margin in his previous election. ; In fact, only four counties flipped – one Newsom county voted to recall and three counties he lost in the previous election voted to retain the Governor. ; ;</p>



<p>In other words, there was no significant shift in sentiment that can provide a hint of future elections – especially for 2024. ; No political crystal ball … ; no tea leaves … no Tarot cards. ; This was purely a California election – and if California is not in the Democrat column in 2024, the donkey party would be virtually wiped out across the nation.</p>



<p>Newsom’s only official opposition was the “yes” vote on recall. ; His potential successor was chosen in an entirely different process. ; Once a voter checked “yes” on the recall vote, they had a choice of more than 50 candidates from which to select a successor. Voters had to rely on polls to get a hint of who that might be.</p>



<p>The guy who emerged was radio commentator Larry Elders. ; At times, he was winning the popularity contest with as little as a 15 percent plurality – although he won the final vote with approximately 46 percent. ; That is important. ; As I have noted many times in the past … when there is a large field of candidates, the winner may not be the most popular overall, but the person with the largest dedicated base. ; That was seen in Trump’s success run in 2016. ; He got the nomination by racking up winning pluralities even though most GOP primary voters preferred one of the other 16 candidates.</p>



<p>Elders’ lead in the polls may have helped Newsom. ; Don’t get me wrong. ; I like Elders, but there still is a pragmatic reality that needs to be considered.</p>



<p>Elders personified the Trump wing of the Republican Party. ; That automatically makes him unacceptable to Democrats and the left – and some independents and Republicans. ; The most likely successor to Newsom did not have the broad base of appeal that Schwarzenegger had. Elders’ staunch conservative principles were not as acceptable in a state that leans that far left – and so Democrat.</p>



<p>You could almost read some of those people’s minds. “I am inclined to boot Newsome … but … not for Elders.” ; That may not have been the only influence – or even the dominant one – but he had to help Newsom to some measure.</p>



<p>These interim elections are rarely as telling as the pundits and the politicians too often claim. ; If the one-off election flips the office from one party to another, maybe something can be drawn from that. ; In the case of the California recall, the only thing that can be surmised is that the Democrat candidate was Governor before the recall vote – and is Governor after.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Unpacking the GOV. Newsome victory
