Select Page

Ukraine Refuses to Surrender Mariupol, How Long Do They Have Left?

Ukraine Refuses to Surrender Mariupol, How Long Do They Have Left?

Ukrainian forces and government officials have refused Russian demands to raise a white flag and lay down their arms in exchange for safe passage out of the city Mariupol, a port city on the southern coast of Ukraine.

The city is part of the area declared independent by Putin early in the war.

Mikhail Mizintsev, the head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s National Defense Control Center, made this ultimatum and said that Kyiv had to respond by 5 am Moscow time on Monday.

Presumably, the Ukrainian forces and government officials, who are militarily outmatched, will be attacked if they stay. They will likely die for their country.

As we predicted, Russia has started to focus on infrastructure and population centers, bombing shopping centers and destroying apartment buildings. While these are mostly empty by this time, civilians have been killed in the hundreds. At least 2300 have died in Mariupol according to city officials. The split between civilians and soldiers is unknown at this time.

Nearly 3.4 million people have fled Ukraine since the war began, at least 10 million have been displaced.

Commentary:  Ukrainian defiance has been the headlines in the mainstream media since the beginning of the war. While I appreciate the optimism there, the Ukrainian military is vastly outgunned. I believe Putin’s invasion is largely going according to plan.

I believe Ukraine is convinced, as I am, that Putin has only a limited time before the sanctions take hold in Russia, the Russian people (especially the oligarchs) start to revolt. When that happens, Putin will disappear from the world.

But this may be 2-3 months from now or even longer. Russian forces are rapidly destroying three major cities of Ukraine, and will reach Odesa before long. How much of a beating can they take.

In Putin’s world of judo, this would be like having your opponent accept a broken arm, a broken leg and feeling a potentially fatal choke coming on without tapping out.

Ukraine may be able to wait this out.  If they can’t, then Putin rises to legendary status in Russia, he has new territories under his control and is emboldened to take more. Not to mention that it also exposes the West as paper tigers and emboldens China to act against Taiwan.

But If they can hold out until Putin is taken out by his own people, then a new Russian government will likely be forced to pay reparations to rebuild Ukraine.  And likely Europe and the rest of the world will help them rebuild, perhaps better than the way they were.

The question is what will be left of Ukraine to rebuild?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-rejects-russian-ultimatum-on-embattled-mariupol-11647858599

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/russia-ukraine-war_n_623811ade4b019fd812f9b4e

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/21/russian-forces-try-encircle-kyiv-shell-shopping-ma/

No Options: Literally Life or Death for Putin

About The Author

6 Comments

  1. John J

    Putin should be executed

  2. Tommie

    Pootin is so rich, He probably has an excellent hiding spot!!! I’d bet that he is good at disappearing!!! He once was the KGB’s Top Dog!!! He’s safe.

    • Tony

      Hiding like a rat

  3. Micala

    Putin should be afraid of the oligarchs in Russia that control most of the $$! They are already complaining and not happy with Putin’s actions! It may not take 3-4 months but 3-4 weeks for them to act and Putin to be 6 feet under!
    He may have hiding places, but rich people have enough $$ to find where he is! The Sanctions are coming fast which will tie up even more of the oligarch’s $$, ticking them off radically!
    Putin may think he is fighting the Ukrainians, but very soon his own rich Russian Families will be after his head, as in chopping it off!

  4. Frankstetson

    Hmmm, , slip a little more and your predictions will end up looking like my hopes, Joe. Did I see a little weasel wording above where the war is not already over?

    Yes, McAle, I believe the Ollie Olegart‘s are probably not really happy right now. Neither is the entirety of the Ruupt Russian population. However, feeling some discomfort and creating regime change in Russia are two very different things.

    Putin maybe one of the richest man in the world. He also Natalie has multiple escape routes and safe houses. I would expect that it’s more of a offer he can’t refuse that an out right to with him being dead. But again, this is my hope. On the ground, sooner or later the Ukrainians will lose. The question remains does Putin win? I could to know.

    I also contend that one of the issues with interconnections across the globe is that they are hard to sever. No one ever wants less in place of more. These oligarchs enjoy all of the benefits and luxuries of the world across the entire globe. It must be hard to give that up for life in Russia. The people of Russia are interconnected electronically across the globe; it appears that is more difficult than one thinks to tear those down instantly. Amazingly, information in small bits and pieces is still getting in and out of the country. These things can be powerful to affect change. Truth matters when you can find it

    And finally, once again, I contend that whether Putin wins or loses in Ukraine, Putin loses. I do not believe Russia can move forward with Putin whether they win or lose in Ukraine. I think he has cast as lot in that lot does not include running Russia anymore.

    • Pootin

      That’s ok. Bernie sanders could take the job

  1. The story of Tyre Nickol’s and his tragic death at the hands of Memphis police officer is impossible for understanding.…