Regardless how the various other legal cases turn out, it has been believed from the onset that the so-called “documents case” presented the greatest danger to President Trump. It is not the most serious case, but the one in which his defense appears to be the weakest.
Had Trump returned the documents when requested by the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), the case would likely have died without any significant consequences. He eventually returned 15 boxes of documents, including more than 200 documents marked “classified.”
Trump still retained an unspecified number of boxes of White House documents – variously claiming that they were his to possess and that he had declassified them either by removing them from the White House or by personally deciding they were declassified without letting anyone know of his action. This made his situation worse.
Eventually, the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago and removed more boxes of documents. At one point, a Trump attorney assured the FBI that all the documents had been returned. This proved to be untrue – and again, he caused his legal situation to worsen.
In a meeting at his Bedminster, New Jersey country club, Trump was recorded in a meeting with others. It was recorded with his knowledge. In the course of that discussion, he referred to a classified document dealing with a possible war with Iran. He was heard on tape saying that the document was classified and as a former President, he could no longer declassify it. From the recording, it sounded as if he was showing the document to the other participants in the meeting. He later said it was just a bunch of newspaper clippings.
After a prolonged investigation, Special Counsel Jack Smith indicted Trump on a number of charges relating to the possession of the documents, mishandling classified material and obstruction of justice. He now faces felony charges that could land him in prison for the rest of his life – although that is extremely unlikely.
In the early stages of the investigation, most analysts and pundits discounted the possibility of jail time. But that has all changed. Should Trump get convicted on the more serious charges, the possibility of some jail time seems more likely. The cause of the change in the odds rests with Trump, himself – and his bone-headed mishandling of the matter.
His determination to retain the records has been a mystery. The Presidential Records Act seems to make it very clear that White House papers are the property of the people to be maintained in the supervision and custody of NARA. And that is especially true of classified documents that legally require special storage and handling.
According to the latest charge – number 32 – leveled at Trump, he was personally involved in obstructing the removal of documents and even the destruction of the recordings from security cameras.
This case may also be Trump’s Achilles Heel in terms of his bid for a return to the Oval Office. His utter disobedience to the law and especially his reckless and dangerous disregard for the security of classified documents are going to have a lot of otherwise supporters having second thoughts.
Yes, these are only charges. Trump is presumed to be innocent until proven guilty in a court-of-law. However, I think Trump’s chances of an acquittal are very slim.
I am totally bewildered why Trump dug himself into this particular legal hole.
So, there ‘tis.