If you think the baseless Trump/Russian conspiracy narrative droned on for much too long, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The various court cases involving President Trump will be on the front burner of national political news for years – yes, years – to come. For networks like MSNBC, it means one-sided propaganda coverage 24/7.
Trump is currently facing three – and perhaps soon to be four – criminal indictments –plus a few civil cases. It is neither my desire nor role to play Trump’s defense counsel in the court-of- public-opinion. Nor am I joining the left-wing media’s prosecutorial teams. My purpose is to analyze Trump’s cases and his political potential in an objective manner.
To review a bit of history, I have already expressed my opinion that the so-called Documents Case poses the greatest risk of a conviction. I do not see that one resulting in more than a fine. I cannot imagine that the documents case will give Trump any jail time.
In terms of the Campaign Finance Case, I think he has a very good chance of an acquittal. And even a conviction in that case would result in a fine – no jail time. I see Trump blowing those off – win or lose — without any negative impact on his political plans and objectives. In fact, so far, they seem to have helped him expand his strength in the GOP primaries and in the 2024 General Election.
The January 6 Case and the Georgia Case are essentially the same. The fact that they are being pursued in tandem gives credence to claims that Trump is the subject of political prosecution. That is because in most cases in which there are two jurisdictional interests – federal or local – one usually takes the lead and the other drops out.
Obviously, the case that will get the greatest attention over the next year or so, is the federal case being pursued by Special Counsel Jack Smith relating to the 2020 election. He has so far indicted Trump on four counts – conspiracy to defraud the United States; conspiracy to impede a congressional proceeding; conspiracy against the right to vote; and obstruction of an official proceeding. Can we assume that Smith is done indicting Trump? There are also potential future indictments against the alleged co-conspirators. It usually takes more than one person to commit a criminal conspiracy.
If there are no more indictments of Trump in the January 6 Case, Smith is taking a pass on indicting Trump on culpability for inciting the Capitol Hill riot. This is interesting since that is what the left has been clamoring for the most. They want Trump to be charged with “seditious conspiracy,” inciting a riot. A lot of the anti-Trump media is wrongfully claiming that the indictments deal with Trump’s culpability in inciting the rioting. So, far, not so.
So, why no indictment on the charges that have been proffered against Trump in the media for the past couple years? I would assume that it is because Smith does not believe he can get a conviction on those charges – or there is more to come. If Smith issues a superseding indictment, you can be sure there will be no trial commencing before the 2024 presidential election.
While the media prosecutors in the court-of-public-opinion had determined that Trump is guilty of all these charges – and more – they are not as easily proven in a real court-of-law. Smith and the other prosecutors are going to have to get a unanimous decision against the threshold of “reasonable doubt.”
But … will any of these cases be tried and concluded before the 2024 presidential election? Most of the legal analysts on both sides are dubious. With the issuance of the superseding indictment in the Documents Case – and the complexity of dealing with classified evidence — it is now more likely that the trial in the Documents Case will have to be put off until after the election. It is increasingly likely that the January 6 Case will go beyond November of 2024. There will be enormous pressure to not put the Georgia Case ahead of the January 6 Case – and there has not even been an indictment in the Georgia Case as of this moment. Running the Georgia Case ahead of the January 6th Case could have a negative impact on the prosecution of the latter.
So, what does the legal, political and media landscape look like between now and the 2024 presidential election? My prediction is divisive chaos and conservation. The left-wing media will be slamming Trump, the Republican Party and GOP voters with one-sided hyperbolic reporting on a 24/7 endless loop. They will continue their role as prosecutor, judge and jury in the court-of-public-opinion in keeping with their propaganda approach. You will find no counterpoint, no balance and no legitimate defense arguments on MSNBC. Just an accelerated pounding of the drums of propaganda. The more conservative media, such as FOX, will mount the defense in the court-of-public-opinion.
What will the impact of the indictment and left-wing fearmongers have on Trump’s political fortunes? That is the imponderable question at the moment. So far, the media attacks on Trump appear to have helped him gain support in the GOP primaries – and arguably in the General Election.
And should Trump get convicted on any of the charges, there will be those appeals up to the Supreme Court. This thing might not be over by the 2028 presidential election.
Contrary to my earliest predictions, I have now come to the belief that Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the Republican nomination – despite the court cases, or maybe because of them. That does not make me happy – and I will still not vote for Trump in the Florida primary.
I am also surprised that – at least according to the polls – Trump is doing so well in a race against Biden. He is slightly behind in some polls. Slightly ahead in others. Essentially, after all the indictments and attacks in the media, Trump is still a very viable candidate – and could return to the Oval Office in January of 2025.
The current polls and that prospect seem to have Biden and Democrat leaders totally crazed in bewilderment and disbelief. They do not understand why it is happening – so they cannot figure out how to stop it.
There will be lot of twists and turns over the course of the next year and three months. The worst part for the American public is that we are going to have to endure all the repetitious propaganda. Partisan speculation will rule – as meaningless as it will be. If only we could be Rip Van Winkle for the coming days.
The one thing seems painfully clear. It is unlikely that there will be any definitive conclusion to anything dealing with Trump for at least a year. The long national nightmare created by the two sides is far from over. In the meantime, my job will require me to respond and opine. Arrrgh! I would rather spend time watching a movie channel.
So, there ‘tis.