
<p>All things considered, President Trump is doing amazingly well in the polls and in the first two primary season races. ; There are a number of reasons for Trump and the Republican Party to feel optimistic about the November election. ;</p>



<p>Virtually all the polling gives the best numbers to Trump. ; He beats President Biden on age and mental acuity. ; He beats him on virtually all the major issues that are on the voters’ minds – the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, foreign policy. ; In virtually every poll, voters say they were better off under Trump than Biden.</p>



<p>Biden’s campaign strategy is to convince voters that the deciding issues should be Trump himself, abortion and the specious claim that America ceases to exist if Trump wins reelection. ; Biden &; Co is also trying desperately to breathe life into his rosy narrative of the economy. ;</p>



<p>But Biden has problems with all of them. ; The attacks on Trump appear to have broadened his support. ; Biden clearly has a lock on the abortion issue, but it is not likely to be the deciding issue for most voters. ; Abortion works well for Democrats when on the ballot by itself, but not when competing with other major issues or candidacies. ;</p>



<p>Not only is “the end of democracy” narrative falling flat, in a recent poll, voters gave Trump the edge as the protector of democracy. ; Go figure. ; And … it seems no matter how many times a day that Team Biden tries to sell their version of the economy, the folks living in the economy are not buying it.</p>



<p>According to most polls, Biden is losing support from minorities and the younger voters – two of his bedrock constituencies in the 2020 election. ; A percentage of those are making the shift to Trump. ; Others are passing on voting for President. ; Biden’s initial support for Israel has fractured his core coalition.</p>



<p>In the head-to-head polling, Trump beats Biden far more often than Biden beats Trump – and this is particularly true in the so-called battleground states.</p>



<p>Now, that is a LOT of good news for Trump, but he should not be planning the move into the Oval Office quite yet. There are a lot of signs in the numbers and in the unfolding events to cause concern for Team Trump.</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>The most obvious is time. ; Voter preferences tend to undulate during a campaign. ; There is no guarantee that any of the numbers we see today will hold up for the next nine-plus months. ;</li>



<li>In most polls, the difference between Trump and Biden is within the margin of error AND under 50 percent. ; That is not a clear indication of future victory. ; A small shift can change everything.</li>



<li>In recent years, Republicans tend to overperform in early polling – and underperform on Election Day.</li>



<li>There are events – anticipated and unanticipated – that can change public opinion. ; The one anticipated event – or series of events &#8212; with the greatest potential impact are Trump’s trials that will or will not take place before election day. ; We do not know when they will take place and what the results will be – or even how the voters will react. ; If Trump is convicted of a felony, there are indications that he will lose critical support.</li>



<li>The economy could roar, and Biden’s claims could gain gravitas with voters. ; That would take away one of Trump’s key advantages.</li>



<li>There could be a decisive win in the Ukraine or Israeli wars or some progress in securing the border.</li>



<li>While age is a problem for Biden, either of them could have a health crisis. ; They are both in the age of “anything can happen at any time.” ; Democrats are trying to convince voters that Trump is as impaired as Biden.</li>



<li>It is impossible to judge at this time how many Republican voters who favored one of the Trump challengers will stay in the Republican Party on Election Day and vote for Trump. ; In New Hampshire, more than 30 percent of GOP primary voters said they would not vote for Trump in November.</li>



<li>Trump tends to alienate himself from voters. He shrinks support rather than expanding it. He is not an easy guy to like – and likeability is important in winning elections.</li>
</ol>



<p>And the ominous indicators for Trump go on and on. ; The point is that it is not possible to judge the outcome for Trump this early based on what we know now – and what the polls tell us now.  ; ;But a close examination of what we DO now know – or can deduce – Trump is looking strong, but not strong enough to be assured of a return to the Oval Office.</p>



<p>Democrats have every reason to panic and be optimistic at the same time. ; But Republicans have no reason to feel euphoric.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Trump is far from winning in November
