Trump has never been popular with a majority of Americans – or more specifically, voters. To understand that – in view of his rise to the presidency – you need to understand how he got to where he is.
Prior to the 2016 presidential election, Republicans were on a roll. They controlled two-thirds of the governorships and two-thirds of the state legislatures. They controlled both the House and the Senate. Early polling suggested a wave election for the GOP in 2016 – a virtual certainty to win the White House.
At the time, political pundits were questioning the very future of the Democratic Party. With no power in Washington, they would become a bi-coastal regional party. Yes … things were that bad for Democrats.
Trump entered the presidential race as the least liked of the 16 other GOP contenders. He was presumed to have no chance for the Republican nomination – and certainly no chance to become President.
But he did win the nomination – but only because all those other Republican candidates divided up the anti-Trump vote. Even though he won the nomination on a number of plurality victories, most of those voting in the GOP primaries preferred someone else.
Trump benefited from Democrats selection of former First Lady, former senator, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton – also one of the more unpopular figures in the political firmament. Trump won the election in the Electoral College but fell short in the popular vote. His unpopularity had tamped down the red wave that was predicted.
In the interest of fairness, it should be noted that upon his election, Trump was subjected to an unprecedented resistance movement. Democrats were working feverishly to undo the election – first by trying to influence Trump’s Electoral College electors to switch their votes and then to launch a pre-inauguration impeachment movement. They even attempt to have Congress block the inauguration. They tried to force Trump out of office with a bogus Russian meddling investigation – launched with false documents prepared by the Clinton Campaign. (Golly gee … and no one was screaming insurrection. Go Figure.)
At the same time, Trump did nothing to enhance his image or build his political base. He continued with his pugnacious streetfighter style. He became the only President in American history who never … never once … won a favorability rating above 50 percent.
In the 2018 midterm elections, a main issue was Trump. Democrats were fine tuning their strategy of keeping Trump unpopular – and spreading that across the entire Republican Party. As a result, Republicans lost the House. In 2019, Republicans lost the Senate by losing both Georgia Senate seats in a December Special Election.
The controversy over the 2020 election continues. Folks on both sides have differing opinions as to the level and impact of voter fraud. But for all practicality, it is over – and Trump is not sitting in the White House. Apart from the raging debate among loyalists on both sides, the election was officially and constitutionally settled by the Electoral College – the same institution that gave Trump his victory in 2016.
Even though Democrats constantly demonize Trump – and spread that political perception across all Republican candidates – Trump’s unpopularity is unique to him. When he was on the ballot in 2016 and 2020, GOP candidates further down the ballot generally did better than Trump in garnering votes. Glenn Youngkin won the governor’s seat in Virginia by NOT playing up to Trump.
As a President and former President, Trump naturally becomes titular head of the Republican Party. He remains influential WITHIN the GOP – and has played a role in selecting candidates for the 2022 midterm elections. Unfortunately, they are all currently struggling – despite the fact that Biden has had the lowest favorability rating of any President in the history of polling.
Given Biden’s rating, the chaos at the border, crime taking over America’s cities, high inflation, a disastrous and tragic withdrawal from Afghanistan, food and baby formula shortages, a failed effort to stop Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the public’s opinion that things are going the wrong way in America, one might expect the Republicans to be re-mounting that grassroots wave — picking up 30 to 50 seats in the House and a couple in the Senate – enough to gain control.
There should be notable gains for the GOP at all levels of government – from statewide offices to school boards. But will that happen? And if not, why not?
At this juncture, it is hard to imagine the GOP winning in the Senate. If the current 50/50 tie in the Senate is to be changed, it is more likely that Democrats will gain. The House may fall to the Republicans – and that is now a possibility rather than a probability – but by a much closer margin.
Once again, the Trump-thing has tamped down voter enthusiasm for the GOP. The Party would be better off if Trump were to keep a low profile in the coming months. But he and the Democrats prefer that Trump remain center stage as much as possible.
As President, Trump has done a lot of good things for America – at least from a conservative perspective. He is not the fascist ogre that he is made out to be by Democrats and their agents in the news media. But Trump is not the type of guy I would like to see my kids become. He has not recognized or addressed his personality deficiencies and his divisiveness.
Going into 2024, Trump will not have the power of incumbency. He has a small base of very impassioned loyalists, but not even a majority of Republican votes want him to be the candidate in 2024 – and they have the voting power to decide.
I have opined in the past that I do not believe Trump can get the GOP nomination for 2024 unless there is again a huge field of opponents – or he has scared out all competition. And I feel quite confident that if he did secure the nomination, he would lose the General Election. He simply lacks sufficient popularity among the people to win a presidential election in 2024.
So, there ‘tis.