
<p>A minority of Republican voters believe that President Trump can win the election to a second nonconsecutive term in 2024. ; Most do not. ; Many believe that he will not even secure the GOP nomination UNLESS … there is a large field of candidates in the Republican primaries.</p>



<p>Trump did not win the majority of voters in the 2016 General Election. ; In fact, most Republican primary voters cast ballots for someone other than Trump. ; He won the GOP nomination only because a large field of opponents divided up the majority vote – allowing Trump to win with a significant plurality.</p>



<p>Those who would prefer that Trump NOT be the Republican standard bearer in 2024 (me included) have expressed concern over a repeat of the 2016 primaries. ; That means the 2024 presidential season would see only 2 or 3 serious candidates to oppose Trump – and preferably only one.</p>



<p>Already, the field of primary candidates is too large – and expected to become even larger. ; Of course, a lot depends on the voters – and how they divide up the votes. ; If most of the field has difficulty in rising out of single digits, then Trump’s hardcore base may be less threatening.</p>



<p>If a large field can hand the nomination to Trump – as most pundits believe – why are so many wannabes entering the race? ; There may be a very good reason. ; They do not expect Trump to be the person to beat. ; They are hoping that all those court cases and Trump&#8217;s weariness will knock him out of contention sometime in the Spring of 2024. ; They believe that Trump will eventually beat himself.</p>



<p>So far, the Trump challengers and potential challengers are not having a lot of impact on the political Richter Scale – with the exception of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. ; Those who have announced (or are about to announce) include former South Carolina Governor and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, businessman Ryan Binkley, broadcaster Larry Elders, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, businessman Perry Johnson, and pharmaceutical CEO Vivek Ramaswamy. ; ;</p>



<p>There are a few more who seem to be testing the ground – including New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, South Dakota Kristi Noem, former Congressman and television intelligence commentor Mike Rogers.  ; So far, only DeSantis and Trump are in double digits – with combined polling numbers between 70 and 80 percent of the vote. ; That leaves only 20 to 30 percent for all the others.</p>



<p>Of course, a lot can change in the next 18 months. ; Having said that, I think the most interesting person in the not-Trump/not-DeSantis list is Christie. ; He is a feisty campaigner with a tell-it-like-it-is reputation. ; Christie will come out on the attack on Trump – and with the possible exception of Trump, himself, no one is better at landing punches on an opponent than Christie.</p>



<p>I suspect Christie will zoom past milquetoast Mike Pence – a prospective candidate who is in the distant third position in the polls with six percent support. ; None of the others can match Christie’s ability to campaign. ; He could even pose a threat to the current leading Trump opponent, Ron DeSantis. ; I would not be surprised if Christie comes out in an immediate strong third place – even in double digits.</p>



<p>The Iowa caucuses will lead off the Republican presidential primary season in January. ; That means we still have six months of open season brawling among the GOP contenders. ; This is politics, so anything can happen – and most assuredly will.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Too Many Republicans in Presidential Race to Stop Trump
