To Invade or Not to Invade
One of the major advantages in warfare is the element of surprise. That is obviously not in Russian despot Putin’s playbook. Not only has there been no swift action, the issue of invading Ukraine or not to invade Ukraine – or even a “minor incursion” to bite off another piece of the old Soviet Union – has been hanging in the balance for months. However, most bets are on an invasion soon.
Yes, there has been a gradual build up. When Putin had 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, the Biden administration said he had enough for a full-scale invasion. When the number went up to 120,000, the Biden administration said he had enough for a full-scale invasion. When he went up to 150,00 troops, the Biden administration said he had enough for a full-scale invasion.
When Putin positioned the attack helicopters — established medical units and blood supplies – the Biden administration said that invasion was possibly imminent. POSSIBLY imminent?
Of course, Putin would not actually be launching a new invasion, but escalating the Russian invasion of the Donbas Region – where actual fighting is going on at this moment. In the first phase of the invasion of Ukraine, Putin picked off the Crimea. Russia and Ukraine have been in an undeclared war for eight years. And we have the next phase because the western alliance did nothing to stop the first two phases of the takeover of Ukraine.
There is talk of a false flag operation to make it appear that Russia is the victim of an attack. But Putin has already laid out a pretext for an incursion. He accused the Ukrainian government of genocide in the Donbas Region.
Recently, Ukraine was hit with a massive cyber-attack by Russia – an act of war. It hit the banks and the Ministry of Defense. Even as the western world wonders if Putin will invade or not, they seem to be oblivious that the war on Ukraine is already underway. The only question is how far Putin will take it THIS TIME.
Putin has three options. He goes for the complete takeover with a massive move to topple the government in Kyiv. He goes for a smaller strike, to take more land on Ukraine’s eastern border to create a wide land connection to the Crimea and permanently seize the Donbas Region – postponing the next step for some future date. Or … he accepts some concessions from the United States and NATO – strengthening his position for a later invasion.
There is one thing that is clear. Putin wants Ukraine … period. Whatever he does at this moment, it will not stop his unrelenting desire to take it all.
While Biden and most of his NATO counterparts have pledged support for the Ukraine government, they openly admit that should Putin opt for a full-scale invasion, Ukraine will fall. Maybe not quite as fast as Afghanistan but fall for sure. With that leverage, why would Putin abandon his desire to bring Ukraine back into the new Soviet Union?
A promise to not invade at this time is painfully like the Munich Agreement when British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain declared “peace in our time” after accepting Hitler’s worthless pledge not to invade eastern Europe. It is déjà vu all over again.
So. There ‘tis.