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To Invade or Not to Invade

To Invade or Not to Invade

One of the major advantages in warfare is the element of surprise.  That is obviously not in Russian despot Putin’s playbook.  Not only has there been no swift action, the issue of invading Ukraine or not to invade Ukraine – or even a “minor incursion” to bite off another piece of the old Soviet Union – has been hanging in the balance for months.  However, most bets are on an invasion soon.

Yes, there has been a gradual build up.  When Putin had 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, the Biden administration said he had enough for a full-scale invasion.  When the number went up to 120,000, the Biden administration said he had enough for a full-scale invasion.  When he went up to 150,00 troops, the Biden administration said he had enough for a full-scale invasion.  

When Putin positioned the attack helicopters — established medical units and blood supplies – the Biden administration said that invasion was possibly imminent.  POSSIBLY imminent?  

Of course, Putin would not actually be launching a new invasion, but escalating the Russian invasion of the Donbas Region – where actual fighting is going on at this moment.  In the first phase of the invasion of Ukraine, Putin picked off the Crimea.  Russia and Ukraine have been in an undeclared war for eight years. And we have the next phase because the western alliance did nothing to stop the first two phases of the takeover of Ukraine.

There is talk of a false flag operation to make it appear that Russia is the victim of an attack.  But Putin has already laid out a pretext for an incursion.  He accused the Ukrainian government of genocide in the Donbas Region.

Recently, Ukraine was hit with a massive cyber-attack by Russia – an act of war.  It hit the banks and the Ministry of Defense.  Even as the western world wonders if Putin will invade or not, they seem to be oblivious that the war on Ukraine is already underway.  The only question is how far Putin will take it THIS TIME.

Putin has three options.  He goes for the complete takeover with a massive move to topple the government in Kyiv.  He goes for a smaller strike, to take more land on Ukraine’s eastern border to create a wide land connection to the Crimea and permanently seize the Donbas Region – postponing the next step for some future date.  Or … he accepts some concessions from the United States and NATO – strengthening his position for a later invasion.

There is one thing that is clear.  Putin wants Ukraine … period.  Whatever he does at this moment, it will not stop his unrelenting desire to take it all.  

While Biden and most of his NATO counterparts have pledged support for the Ukraine government, they openly admit that should Putin opt for a full-scale invasion, Ukraine will fall.  Maybe not quite as fast as Afghanistan but fall for sure.  With that leverage, why would Putin abandon his desire to bring Ukraine back into the new Soviet Union?

A promise to not invade at this time is painfully like the Munich Agreement when British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain declared “peace in our time” after accepting Hitler’s worthless pledge not to invade eastern Europe.  It is déjà vu all over again.

So. There ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry HoristLarry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

27 Comments

  1. Clifford mckinney

    The invasion wouldn’t have happened with Trump in charge. Elections have consequences. Even stolen ones.

    • B4CE

      Cliff , you are correct, this wouldn’t have happened with trump in the White House. Because trump was destroying NATO from within, Putin had no reason to start a war while he had trump giving him everything he wanted.
      Like trump says, Putin is a genius, he has played trump like the reality tv show host that he is.

      • Theodore Sueck

        And how was he destroying NATO from within? By making them pay their own way for a change? We are not the worlds piggy bank. If making them pay their own way was destroying them, then so be it. We do not owe them free anything at the cost to our own country. Putin is quite smart, a world of difference compared to the vegetable occupying the White House now. You should try to remember the old saying, “Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer”. That’s why Putin was kept off balance under the Trump administration.

        • B4CE

          Teddy Bear writes;”Putin is quite smart, a world of difference compared to the vegetable occupying the White House now.”

          Yo, trump lost, he is no longer in the White House.

          “I never understood wind”- d trump

          I never would have guessed that republicans would become such fanboys of a dictator. But here we are.

  2. Big Daddy

    Remember when trump threatened to withhold arms and funding from Ukraine unless he got his way?

    Pepperidge Farm remembers.

    Maybe trump was doing Putin’s bidding back then?

    • bobm

      Wait a sec, big daddy: Was that 45 or 46 making that threat?

  3. Ben

    I agree. With Trump in charge, we would’ve already dropped the nukie on the Kremlin. No one ever cheat on Trump and get away with it.Then everything would be better after we nuked them. Remember,. Trump laid down the hard line with Putin. He never took the “defend Ukraine“ plank out of the republican platform before he became president. No, not Don. He never said he respected the strong man or that he thought it was a genius. He was tough but he was unfair. He would’ve stopped Putin just the same way he’s stopped North Korea from creating more missiles and bigger nuclears. That’s how tough he was. Not like Biden.

  4. Tom

    This is what happens when NATO nations get slack on their commitments. Bush, Obama, and Trump all complained about the amount the USA pays NATO versus the lack of payments by member nations. Trump called NATO “worse than NAFTA”. Maybe now the West will realize why it created NATO in the first place and will actually all contribute according too their means. I hope one result of this invasion is that NATO becomes “woke to Russia” and what Putin wishes to do. He is old KGB through and through, I remember him from East Germany when he was a KGB Lt, and his frowning over Gorbechev’s efforts to modernize Russia during Reagan Administration, and spin off the Baltic states. And how he ran over Medvedev in the 1990’s. They were Warsaw Pact countries created as a buffer from the West by Stalin who originally partnered with Hitler to take them in the first place. You know, genocidal Joe! Putin is molded in Stalin philosophy; ” West is evil, can never be trusted. Must have buffer from attack by West.” Again, NATO needs to wake up to the rising Russian Bear – he is awake!

  5. Tom

    I found a great article written by a PhD historian that really explains the whole Ukraine mess and concludes whether Putin is correct in what he says about Ukraine. Bottom line is what I said earlier, Putin is in the mold of Stalin who was trained by those before him during the Tsars that believed (based on a warped interpretation of history of Ukraine-Russo relations) that Ukraine lands have always been theirs and they are simply taking back what they unfairly lost. The two paragraphs below are from the end of the report.

    Read the full report about the history of this mess at https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseih/2020/07/01/there-is-no-ukraine-fact-checking-the-kremlins-version-of-ukrainian-history/

    “Putin’s statements (which he has reiterated on various occasions) are wrong on two counts: For one, the claim that present-day eastern or southern Ukraine should have been considered part of “the historical South of Russia” or “primordially Russian territories” in the 1920s seems preposterous, since there had been no substantial Russian presence in these territories at any time prior to the 19th century. Secondly, Putin’s assertion that Ukraine’s south-eastern borders were established “with no consideration for the ethnic make-up of the population” is equally false. The first Soviet census in 1926, a few years after the eastern borders of the UkrSSR had been finalised, showed that in all territories of eastern Ukraine, including those that are now contested, ethnic Ukrainians still far outnumbered ethnic Russians. What ultimately changed this in the 1930s was the demographic devastation wrought by Stalin’s agricultural genocide, the ‘Holodomor’.”

    Conclusion

    “The frontlines of the frozen conflict between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists are criss-crossing the plains of the Donets Basin, but they are also running right through the region’s past. Russia’s incursions into Ukraine have enjoyed tremendous support at home and, in some quarters, abroad. Many have been slow to denounce them – or quick to embrace them – out of a conviction that the Kremlin has history on its side; that Ukraine has never been a ‘real’ country in its own right and that its south-eastern territories in particular are primordial Russian lands. Russia’s political top brass, including Vladimir Putin himself, appear to subscribe to this belief as well, and by all appearances it has directly informed their policy towards Ukraine. But as much as these assumptions may resonate with ordinary Russians, as well as some foreign leaders, a glance into Ukrainian history reveals that they are based on a dangerously distorted reading of the past. Ultimately, by redrawing borders and rewriting history the Kremlin is unlikely to have done itself a favour. Through its intervention in Ukraine it has galvanised most Ukrainians in their aversion to Russia and has thereby done a great deal to demarcate the perceived differences between Ukrainians and Russians more clearly than ever before.”

    Dr Björn Alexander Düben is an Assistant Professor at the School of International and Public Affairs, Jilin University and has previously taught International Relations and Security Studies at LSE and King’s College London. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the LSE and graduate degrees from the Universities of Oxford and Cambridge.

    • larry Horist

      The modern world is ruled by politics and geography … not ethnicity. That is secondary. Since the advent of political geographic boundaries, cultures have been cumulated or devised by borders. You see that all over the world. Stability requires a peaceful acceptance of contemporary borders. That gets disrupted anytime one nation lays claim to a region based on historic ethnic realities. In the eyes of the world, Ukraine is an independent nation not matter the cultural history of its diverse residents. World War II began with Hitler’s claim on the Sudetenland based on ethnicity. Putin is just a Hitler re-tread. Put more simply. What has been overwhelmingly agreed upon … must remain agreed upon. We cannot allow a rogue play create chaos — meaning international conflict. And this is not an issue of ntions — or peoples — but the insanity of the Madman of Moscow. Putin needs to be put back into his figurative “box” or into a pine box.

      • Frank stetson

        Not sure I agree with your lack of ethnicity here, given all the ethnic cleansing that still goes on in the world, given all the decisions that are still made based on ethnicity. Even in the US.

        But Putin has a thing for putting Russia back together again, Ukraine being one of the top gems in his crown. There is much worldwide fall out on this and, as you noted, but tend to blame Biden for not militarizing Ukraine, adding them to NATO, and putting our our forces on the ground there. Somehow, you believe that would have a different outcome and Putin would’ve been hands off. Dream on.

        Being the number to oil producer in the world, Putin believes we will ultimately forgive his transgressions in return for his oil. That will be for the world to determine and, as you know, considerations are already being given to the priority of oil. That factor has really not changed since World War II. And doubtful that the other nations can backfill the void of Russia’s production in the world. At least overnight.

        I am so glad that Republicans have been pushing back against renewable energies and other oil alternatives. Trump‘s colon initiative obviously did not work. Although there is a price difference, we all know that difference will fade over time as technologies improve, supply improves, and prices drop. We should’ve seen the fact that Russia being a number two oil producer was not good for the world. And that fact has been with us for a number of administrations. It’s not just Biden’s fault.

        We also both agree that Putin is just an evil guy. Why we kissed his ass for the last four years I will never know. Actually I do know, but we haven’t been able to indict yet. And it doesn’t look like New York will do it now. So here we are. And continuing to bash Biden in a time of world conflict does not seem to be patriotic or productive. I think we need to focus on the future given Russian oil will be in the crosshairs for a while.

        The good news is that our oil production has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels. As prices increase, our shale production becomes more viable and will increase too. Again, none of this will replace the number two oil producer in the world, but every little bit will help. Personally, I would suggest prioritizing renewables since they are a good, clean, source of energy that can last as long as the sun shines. I myself, have reduced my overall energy consumption by 33% since 2010. And my oil consumption by 75% through the use of renewables. I spend less and yet my thermostat has never been higher. My point is if individuals can do it, so donations. Did it cost me extra? Sure did, but this many years later, like I said, I spend less, drive further, and stay warmer than ever before. Soon, I will evolve to all electric automobiles and once again drop my oil usage by 50%. Probably will still take a couple years to replace the entire fleet…

  6. NavyVet69

    Like most republicans and my President ( FJB) I firmly support Putin and his right to take back land that is rightfully Russian! If Ukraine doesn’t want to be bombed, they should simply submit to Putin!

  7. Larry Kuhn

    I’d rather be a citizen of Putin’s Russia than claim Biden as my President. At least Putin is a strong leader of a predominately white Christian state. Even trump looks up to him!

    • larry Horist

      This is to NavyVet69 and Larry Kuhn. I am shocked by your ignorant and hyperbolic statements. They are contrary to every conservative principle and and American value — the very thing that the genius of the Founders created. I have been a consistent critic of Biden’s philosophic bent and his gross incompetency. I have been a defender of many of Trump’s policies — although not his personality. But I am shocked that anyone with conservative principles and moral underpinning would express such malignant opinions. When circumstances are chaotic, core principles become that much more important. I prefer to stick with the values of Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Lincoln than those of Biden and Putin. If as they are on opposite sides of the current situation — the are both failing to live up to the highest principles. But even there thy are different. Biden is wrong and incompetent. Putin is pure evil and possibly crazy. I prefer to reject both choices was my standard.

      • Larry kuhn

        Larry another Larry kuhn posted. Seems like a lot of that is going on. Lol. But I don’t worry about it

        • larry Horist

          Larry Kuhn (the original) We are seeing a lot of that. The original “Ben” has been using other names — although he explains why. Frank Stetson has been using alternative screen names to give false appearances. And now you. They are using false flag IDs to spread disinformation … and to make the other side look bad. We know that the left loves to use false-flag operations. It must be in their DNA. They even create an imaginary Larry Horist to carry on their disinformation. I guess if you cannot win with the truth, you have to make up an alternative reality.

  8. Ac

    So, those preferring Putin’s autocratic dictatorial leadership as well as world view over Biden’s leadership through the quagmire left to him, are bravely disparaging Biden. They know they are safe in the freedoms afforded. Like spoiled jaded privileged brats going on and on about Biden’s management and what should have been done.
    Reality escapes you and your perceptions. Imagine you said something even slightly negative regarding your president if you were a Russian. About Putin, you may be correct, but not politically correct. In America anyone can complain, berate, castigate, and repeat FOX idiocies about national leadership without consequence. The PBP publishing author’s pieces would most certainly warrant hard labor in a Siberian Internment Camp.
    In the US we have singular unique freedoms no other county on God’s green earth grants by Constitutional guarantee. The things said and done in this country in the name of freedom and one’s rights is an abomination of the spirit intended. Especially, in those incidents when free rights claimed by one voicing their opinion in commentary and others with an opposing view are not allowed the same freedom and rights..
    Incivility at the present time is rampant and viral in its pandemic proportions. Free speech is a gift which is no longer treasured and respected for its merits for positive disbursement of true information. Speech, especially that which shapes into a debate around an arguable point, once had bounds which were known and seldom crossed. Today, civil debate is unheard of. No one is open to considering opinions contradicting their own position. Who has patience with “others”. We draw up sides with labels, “us” and “them”. This we relegate to the “other” party of “them” are over there for not being like “us”
    However, no matter one degree of hypocrisy in thinking of one’s rights while denying someone else equal rights. There are, or should be some bridges considered to far for
    behavior deemed inappropriate and unacceptable. Sadly, that bridge has been trashed and burned in culture’s rush filling every imaginable space on the internet with anonymous individuals spreading disinformation, misinformation, out of context commentary, and subjects pandering to a particular uncomplimentary and politically divisive commentary. The target audience being those most susceptible to buy-in and following negativity where ever it leads. Those sought out are the unlearned not being educated in objective critical thinking as that process presupposes an honest weighing of differing opinions with objective truth.
    Going back to the Putin aficionados in Larry’s discipleship. Even if Larry himself in his conservative Republican guise would educate those who herald Putin as superior to our current elected President in the blatantly distorted view. Nothing can dislodge the unpatriotic notions that corrupt may minds. The reply given by the Vet69 could not have served “in country” and appreciated communist socialism’s ugly realities. Putin is not one of the good guys as Trump thinks. He is the lie promoting propaganda pushing despot we have to realize is an enemy to the West, America, and democracies everywhere.
    Having lived through the war era of 69 as a draft card holder and expecting the feared draft letter, as well as the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis. the Berlin Wall, as well as life stories told by neighbors of mine growing up. Some had lived through fighting on the ground in WWII and a few were Jewish survivors of the death camps and had lost family to Hitler’s racism plotting.
    No feeling sympathetic soul can not feel the pain with people having endured by soldiers, torture victims, POW’s, along with wrongfully interned American-Japanese citizens.
    Bullying President Biden and playing at being armchair generals with out responsibility or consequence says much about the real character of bystanders.
    What ever is honorable …… can not be divisive or contribute to the divisions in our country.

    and

    • Ben

      How dare you put together a cogent, thoughtful argument and attempt to have a good discussion. This is punching bag post, where free speech means telling lies and getting away with it. Ad hominem attacks are allowed, lies that can harm, and hate speak without moderation is the rule. Actually Joe will tell you how he respects you when you tell big lies. He even believes the big lie. And if the lies can actually hurt people and Joe knows it, who cares. This is a place for it. . Because the bottom line is it makes Joe money. Free speech does not mean acceptance of lies that harm, filthy language and ad hominem attacks. But pbp has low standards, little moderation, few rules of the road, or anything to promote healthy discussion and debate. It’s a cesspool, dive right in. Bottom line is in search of a buck, Joel House people to say things here that he would never allow them to say in his house or in front of his children.

      • larry Horist

        Ben … and PBP is also the place were you are given a platform spew you ignorant vitriol. You hypocritically take the sites devotion to ALL free speech and condemn it for not censoring others — only assumedly to publish your views. Crude and offensive language — and lies and disinformation — are self-correcting in the marketplace of free speech. Remember, you have the right to speak freely, but there is no right to be taken seriously. Virtually everything you wrote is either wrong or inconsistent with the First Amendment. Be thankful that you are allowed to express your views — even views that malign the person and the platform that provides you the opportunity. Get it?

        • Ben franklin

          Yeah. You’re stupid. It’s a private commercial website. One can have free speech without foul language, ad hominem attacks as well as obvious disinformation. And when Joe even states has respect for an obvious lie, it appears the gloves are off. So live in the cesspool that you’re created. There are a number of restrictions on constitutional free speech. You know that asshole, you just choose to forget it in your pretense to accept anything to make a buck.

          Joe even goes as far as to say third person attacks are not allowed, when I sarcastically attacked you for adopting, but when people attack my wife, and someone else’s daughter-in-law, that apparently is fair play since we are liberals I guess. I do give John credit for informing me as to the reason of my bad, but I also give them credit for being a complete hypocrite in how he did it. I believe that I can have free-speech and a level of decorum without sacrificing anything except lowbrow comments and disinformation. The recent spate about Putin and the Ukraine which is obviously coming from Russian trolls or someone pretending to be one is a prime example.

          Here is a site where free-speech means allowing things you would never allow in your own home, you would never allow your kids to read, you have lies, you have filth, you have people berating people for no other reason except they enjoy it. You are a dumb dick. Get it.

          I would love to return to an honest discussion of issues. But we can’t do that here. So, I’m all for entertainment, let’s call each other names, let’s print lies, it’s all the fun of free-speech and if someone said, I’m sure people will figure it out. Idiots.

    • larry Horist

      Ac … Biden needs to be disparage, but not using Putin as a counterpoint or the alternative to Biden. Putin needs to be disparaged and condemned. If Biden is the other boxer in the ring, Putin is the mugger on the street. Each should be dealt with in the appropriate manner. Neither is an acceptable alternative to the other.

      • Frank stetson

        Excuse me. Like it or not, Biden iIS your fighter in the ring. Act like it.

        You don’t like Trump’s personality, but you like many of his policies. I guess given my feelings towards Bill Clinton, that’s fair. Although I do not hold the two equivalent when it comes to personality false. Not to mention I truly believe Trump has some legal faults as well, mostly financial. He’s a cheat and always will be.

        But given that when you put personality and policies on the scale, it tips towards policy for you, I have to wonder: if you put all the policies on the scale, I’m guessing you still come up with a positive. Given all the evil policies that Trump put in place whether it be for illegal aliens, environment, and even economics, I stand amazed. The resulting national debt and incredibly low GDP growth, lowest since Herbert Hoover, which seems to be the report card grade that should sink the ship for you. I stand amazed.The fact that that one improvement to US healthcare took place under his administration. I stand amazed. The fact that he unilaterally destroyed many of our international alliances put the US of a position where no one trust us is tantamount to put in the US against the rest of the world. He even dissed Canada. I stand amazed.

        • Clifford mckinney

          Fighter in the ring? The old fool couldn’t fight his way out of a paper grocery sack

          • Frank stetson

            In times of conflict, Americans of all parties come together, rally for the cause, and join hands to find the solutions.

            Putin has sown the seeds of division and we Americans have allowed it to blossom. You are expressing the fruits of his labor.

            After 9/11, as distasteful as it was, we rallied around both Bush and Cheney. It was the American thing to do.

            So keep it up, perhaps you don’t see this is a conflict, but Putin has put the nuclear option on the table, the conflict is real and it is not just small arms this time.

          • larry Horist

            Frank…. you are spreading false crap AGAIN. It may be your OPINON, but it is bogus. What do you mean people rallying around Bush and Cheney? Did you miss the screams and demonstrations from the left? Did you forget all those folks who accused them of war crimes. A town in Vermont (of course) even passed a resolution to have Bush arrested for war crimes if he ever set foot in their town. Folks on the left seem to live in the comfort of their own imaginations. Of course we had a drop in GNP and other economic measures. We had a pandemic shutdown — too much in my opinion. And as expected, as the pandemic ebbs, the economy would experience rapid growth again. To the extent that Biden did not get the pandemic resolved as he promised, the recovery is a bit slower. But Biden owns the inflation. At least this time you did not hide behind an alternative screen name — the one you use when going on vicious ad hominin attack that this Frank Stetson claims to disavow — at least until lately. Once again, you are passing off you narrow and uninformed opinion as fact. And if you are not uninformed you are lying,

    • larry Horist

      Ac, you do ramble a lot. If you have read my recent commentaries, you know I am waaaay opposed to Putin. I would have had Ukraine in NATO and western troops in Ukraine. I would love to see a plot to knock off the nutcase from within. I have complained that Biden has not been hard enough on Putin …. as was Obama. The record is very clear. The strongest actions against Russia have been take by Trump — despites his palsy talk. I side with the Ukrainian government 100 percent. That is why I am critical of Biden for his ineffectiveness. He talks big, then does not deliver. As far as I can tell, most Republicans … most conservatives and most American tend to agree with my view. Tucker Carlson does nto speak for the majority by a long shot — and I will deal with that in an upcoming commentary. Those folks are not in my “discipleship” as you suggest.