Update: Trump has just announced that instead of attending the debate, he will opt for an interview with Tucker Carlson.
In characteristic fashion, President Trump is holding the media spotlight by leaving his participation in the upcoming GOP debate in limbo. He is not saying he will – and he is not saying he will not. That leaves all the media-grabbing daily speculations up to pundits.I would be surprised if he does not jump into the debate at the last moment – after having consumed all the pre-debate oxygen in the airwaves.
But I am prepared to be surprised.I am inclined to believe he will debate because the advantage-to-disadvantage ratio seems to favor the former. It also seems more consistent with his personal style. Among the things that favor participation in the debate are:
1. His ego. The man is a walking reality show, and the debate is just that. He also considers himself an extraordinary debater.Direct confrontation works for Trump.
It was in the 2016 debates that he devastated his competition – including an entire field of the leading personalities in the Republican Party. He not only knocked them out of the 2016 race, he ended a lot of political careers. Consider the fact that only one of his 16 competitors in 2016, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, is in the 2024 campaign. Three of the 2016 gang remain in the Senate (Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio), but out of the presidential contender category.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is peddling sleep potions and children’s books. Former Ohio Governor John Kasich is an occasional Trump critic on left-leaning media. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, part of the Bush Dynasty and the anticipated nominee in 2016 has not been heard from since.
Moving into the world of anonymity were Dr. Ben Carson, CEO Carly Fiorina, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, former Michigan Congressman Thad McCotter. and former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer. Herman Cane, Mr. 999, has since died.
2. Debates appeal to his base. Like the citizens of Rome in the Coliseum, Trump’s fans love to see him in full armor – taking on his adversaries with his uniquely bladed tongue. And pleasing his base pleases Trump.No debating suggests fear or weakness.
While Trump can see not debating as a reflection of his lead in the current polling, those same polls show that he could lose some support if he does not debate.He gives his rivals an unchallenged opportunity to attack. Shooting barbs after the fact from the sidelines is never as effective as face-to-face confrontation.
Trump can create a distraction from the debates, as some have suggested. He can try, but that is a losing strategy. Republican voters, and others, will be tuning into the debate. The most important news outlet for Trump is FOX News. As host of the debate, you can rest assured they will not distract from their own event.
Not debating is not likely to be a fatal — or even a significant – blow to the Trump campaign, but it is more likely to be more disadvantageous than advantageous. The only reason I see for Trump not debating is that he is afraid – afraid that he cannot hold his own in the same way he did in 2016. Afraid that the others on the stage may not be so easily crushed. He may be right. He took his adversaries by surprise in 2016. The 2024 group is going to come to the stage much better prepared for the Trump style.Personally, I hope he does debate.So, there ‘tis.