In 2016, the Republican field of presidential wannabes was so large that they had a two-level debate system. The major candidates based on polling numbers were on the center stage. Those coming in with lower numbers were in a separate debate – which I referred to as the “kiddie pool” debate. It was an awful way for the GOP to present its candidates, but the Republican National Committee has never been good at planning debates.
This year is no exception. While they managed to get all the credible candidates on the stage at one time, the formats, moderating, selection of panelists and questioning were awful.
Now that the final official debate of the season is over – although there may be some local debates — we can safely say that they were largely non-events more than forums to educate, impress or sway voters. After every debate, you were left with the feeling “is that all there is?”
The debates reminded me of the yellow flag in an auto race when all the cars idle around the course without changing position. In terms of polling numbers, there was not a lot of change. There were no breakaways from the dog pack pursuing the fox. The problem was that the fox was nowhere in sight.
The only hard news to come out of the debates was that the challengers to the absent Donald Trump jockeyed for position vis-a-vis another. Over the course of the campaign, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis lost almost half of his initial support. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley picked up a few points. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was the squeaky wheel making the most noise but did not move up or down much. Vivek Ramaswamy continued his role as the bad boy who needs to be sent home – and he probably will be. All the other Trump original challengers broke camp and did go home.
In my judgment, the winner in the debate was Haley … again. Despite the fact that America has never had a woman President, she came across as the most presidential – the most informed and the most able. She is a real threat to DeSantis’s distant second place, if not yet to Trump. I also believe that she is the only candidate on the stage who would have any chance – slim as it may be — to overtake Trump. She is the only candidate on the stage who has momentum – little as it may be.
There is no reason for Christie or Ramaswamy to remain in the race. If Christie were really intent on seeing Trump fall short of the Republican presidential nomination, he would get out of the race and endorse either Haley or DeSantis – and I think Haley would be the wise choice. I also believe that Haley would be the strongest candidate to beat President Biden.
In terms of interesting moments, there were several … a couple … okay, at least one. That was when Christie slapped down Ramaswamy for his childish ad hominem attacks on Haley. It was a moment of chivalry. It made Christie look good and Ramaswamy look very bad – but the big beneficiary was Haley. Christie’s praise of Haley almost had a ring of an endorsement.
Finally, I thought the moderators’ questions were awful. But they always seem to be awful. I think that is because they are media folks. When I assembled debates, I preferred to have stakeholders on the panel – civic leaders, business types or union officials. They ask much better questions. They cover the issues while journalists are only interested in political games and gotcha questions.
It is hard to imagine anyone overtaking Trump, but this is politics, and anything can happen. But in terms of the latest debate, nothing much happened.
So, there ‘tis.