The odds are increasingly against Biden
According to the polls, approximately 70 percent of voters think Biden to too old to serve a second term – with some 60 percent of Democrats expressing that opinion. If the polling question simply asks if Biden should run again – without reference to age – the numbers are about the same.
This negative view of Biden is not only age, but also his handling of the job. His overall favorable rating languishes between 35 and 40 percent. It is even lower when it comes to the all-important issue of handling the economy. In that, he trails Trump’s numbers.
For all the baggage piled on Trump’s back, the best Biden can do according to the polls is a tie at around 45 percent each. That is the best Biden can do against a guy with four felony indictments based on 91 criminal charges … a loser in a sexual assault case … a loser in a number of fraud cases involving his corporation, foundation, and online university … and an offensive pugnacious personality?
There has to be a LOT of dislike and distrust with Biden to keep him even with Trump. And it is not the power of the hardcore Trump supporters. They are only a fraction of GOP voters – and an even smaller fraction of the general voting population. For Trump to break even with Biden, he has to attract a lot of Republicans AND a lot of independents – and maybe even a few Democrats.
Imagine where Biden would be in the polls if Trump did not have so much baggage – or he is not the GOP candidate? You can bet that savvy Democrat strategists ponder that – causing a lot of sleepless nights.
Biden and the Democrats have only three strategies for winning – demonize Trump, demonize Trump and demonize Trump. They need to make more than half the voters fear and/or hate Trump more than they fear/or hate an enfeebled President – and the real possibility of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming President. The fact that Trump is not trouncing Biden shows that the strategy is somewhat effective.
The Democrats best chance at keeping the White House would be to dump the Biden/Harris ticket for a new team. That is not as far-fetched as it may seem. There is definitely a significant advantage to incumbency – but not when the incumbent’s numbers are so catastrophically bad.
Biden has to rely on Trump hatred to win reelection because he does not have much else to offer voters. With the one possible exception of abortion, Democrats have nothing to run on that appeals to a majority of voters. Not the economy. Not taxes. Not the border. Not crime. Not education. Not cultural issues. Thanks to the scandalous exposures (no pun intended) of his son, Hunter, Biden does not even own the “Mr. Clean” issue.
Not only is Biden in trouble today, but the trajectory also suggests he will not be better off in the future. He cannot pull a Benjamin Button and reverse the aging process. That will continue to physically and mentally decline in the short run and the long run. Attempting to conceal his conditions by staff and media allies is failing.
Comparing his age to Trump is a loser because for all his excessive weight and personal issues, Trump has better energy, vitality and mental acuity. That is obvious — and is why Democrats hope to keep both Trump and Biden hunkered down and away from the campaign trail.
In terms of the issues that currently play against Biden, it does not appear that they will trend in Biden’s favor in the coming year. Most economists are flying the warning flag on the future of the economy. Inflation – at close to 4 percent — is still hitting the American people very hard. It is likely that the Fed will again increase interest rates at some time in the future. Biden will take no convincing action to secure the border. Crime will continue to surge due to the growing drug problem and Democrat leniency on criminals. The trend of Blacks and Hispanics moving to the GOP – or not voting – will likely continue.
Biden has painted himself in the corner with regard to Harris. There can be no doubt that her presence on the ticket is a serious problem. She is what makes Biden’s age and condition that much more of a concern. On the other hand, dumping her could create an equally damaging outcome.
Democrats have a closing window on coming up with an alternative to Biden. There are eager contenders in the wings who would likely beat Biden in a full-blown primary contest. California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker are two potential candidates with the gleam of the Oval Office in their eyes.
Biden’s path to a second term may not be the slam dunk Democrats suggest. There was a time when conventional wisdom suggested that Trump had no chance to win the GOP presidential nomination. As that prospect became more likely, convention wisdom was that Trump was a sure loser in the General Election. What was once unthinkable – that Biden could lose to Trump in 2024—is entering the realm of possibility.
While Trump is buoyed by the growing belief that he can win a second term, Biden is being dragged down by a growing belief that he cannot win a second term. Because of that – and because Democrats are always myopically focused on winning – I rate Biden’s current chance of being the Democrat standard bearer at 50/50 … or less.
So, there ‘tis.