<p>Unless something drastic happens, both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will win their respective nominations with sufficient delegates. There will be no brokered conventions, each of them will win outright.  ;This is the math:</p>
<p><strong>Trump</strong></p>
<p>Trump now has 661 delegates (Missouri is still squirrelly&#8230;). He needs 1237 to win the nomination outright.  ;Since 1141 delegates remaining this means he has to pull about 50% of the remaining delegates.  ;This does not mean 50% of the vote, just 50% of the delegates.</p>
<p>Of the 19 remaining states, 14 of them are either &#8220;winner take all&#8221; or &#8220;winner take most.&#8221;  ;With this in mind, if Trump wins 7-9 of the &#8220;winner take all/most&#8221; states (depending on which ones) and takes a reasonable share in the 4 remaining proportional states, he should win the nomination outright. In theory, he could lose a majority of the remaining states and still win the nomination outright.</p>
<p><strong>We believe this is an easy lift for Trump.</strong></p>
<p>Cruz would need to win about 75% of the remaining delegates. This means he would have to win 12-14 of the remaining &#8220;winner take all/most&#8221; states and do very well in the proportional states. This is not likely to happen unless Trump has a major meltdown of some kind.</p>
<p>Kasich would need 97% of the remaining delegates.  ;This is statistically impossible, unless both Trump and Cruz get hit by a bus.</p>
<p><strong>Clinton</strong></p>
<p>If you assume the superdelegates are reliable, then Mrs. Clinton only needs 33% of the remaining 2346 delegates to get to 2383 delegates needed to win the nomination outright.  ;With 53% of the remainder, she will win regardless of the superdelegates.</p>
<p><strong>We believe this is a piece of cake ;for Mrs. Clinton.</strong> She won over 60% of the delegates today.  ;But even with a major meltdown, the math says Hillary would likely still win the nomination.  ;</p>
<p>Bernie&#8217;s only chance will be if Hillary does have a meltdown, to the point where her superdelegates abandon her. Then a brokered convention may very well give him the nod, but this is a 1 in 100 chance.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m sure the campaigns are going through these numbers with a fine-toothed comb, and wargaming every possibility.</p>
<p>But in our opinion this is over.</p>
<p> ;</p>