
<p>Rarely are election outcomes more predictable than the results of the elections in Florida and Wisconsin. While politicians and political pundits created great mystery and importance in projecting the meaning of the actual outcomes, there was little mystery and relatively little meaning to be drawn from the final vote counts.</p>



<p>Allow me to explain</p>



<p>Issues and personalities aside, candidates running in special off-year elections rarely do as well as the person of their party who won the presidency. The turnout is lower – as is the enthusiasm. That is why the incumbent President’s party loses support in the off-years – and often lose control of one, if not both, congressional chambers.</p>



<p><strong>Florida</strong></p>



<p>I never wavered in my belief that the two Republican congressional candidates would win in Florida – and the liberal candidate would win in Wisconsin. ; It was a matter of numbers.</p>



<p>Republican Randy Fine won in Florida’s 6<sup>th</sup> Congressional District with approximately 57 percent of the vote. ; ; Republican Jimmy Patronis won in the Sunshine State’s 1st Congressional District – also with approximately 57 percent of the vote.</p>



<p>President Trump won the two Florida congressional districts by a 30-point margin or more. ; That was a huge cushion. ; The Republican Florida candidates could afford to lose a lot of votes compared to Trump and still handily win their races. ; And that is exactly what they did. ; But there was no way they could match Trump’s 2024 vote.</p>



<p><strong>Wisconsin</strong></p>



<p>In Wisconsin, liberal Democrat Susan Crawford and conservative Republican Brad Schimel were vying for a seat on the state supreme court. ; Trump had won the state in 2024 by a very slim margin – 49.7 percent to Harris’ 48.9 percent. ; There was virtually no Republican cushion. ; Schimel would have had to have matched Trump’s vote in Wisconsin to win – and that simply was not going to happen &#8230; period.</p>



<p><strong>Summary</strong></p>



<p>While there is not a lot of speculative relevancies in the outcomes for the crystal ball class, the elections did have real consequence. The politics in Wisconsin will be influenced by Crawford’s victory. It could impact future elections as the Wisconsin politicians and courts manipulate the voting maps.</p>



<p>In terms of the Florida races, House Speaker Johnson has padded his majority. ; That provides him more leeway in advancing the GOP legislative agenda – and a little more insulation against a Democrat takeover in 2026.</p>



<p><strong>The influence of money</strong></p>



<p>The recent elections further prove my contention that money is NOT a good predictor of election outcomes. ; The number one predictor is &#8230; incumbency.</p>



<p>In the recent elections, the candidates with the most money – by a longshot – lost. ; The Democrat candidates in Florida had ten times more money than the victorious Republicans. ; In Wisconsin, Schimel had the big bucks from Elon Musk.</p>



<p>Yes, it is true that overall, the candidates with the most money win – BUT that is because the candidates with the most money are mostly &#8230; the incumbents. ; Duh!</p>



<p>I do not believe that these elections portend much for the 2026 midterm election – in which, by tradition, Democrats are likely to make gains – and even take control of the House. Trump’s and the GOP’s challenge is to defy history and tradition. It is much too early to speculate about 2026 – but based on history, Republicans have every reason to be nervous.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

The election outcomes were inevitable
