
<p>For the past year, we have had a number of tipping-point events that have not changed the trajectory of the presidential campaigns to any great degree. The perception and polling indicating a lead by President Biden or President Trump has varied slightly – with Trump generally in the stronger position within the margin of error, of course.</p>



<p>The predicted game changers – Biden’s State of the Union Speech and Trump’s indictments and convictions – changed very little. ; Trump’s precarious lead in the all-important battleground states has remained Trump’s precarious lead. The only perceptible change in the past year in key states is that Trump has improved his numbers every so slightly – and his fundraising has soared. ;</p>



<p>So, now it is the upcoming debate that many claim—or hope – will be a knockdown, if not a knockout, punch for Biden or Trump. To assess the possibility of that, one needs to understand the unique dynamics of this presidential debate. It is unlike any presidential debate in the past, featuring the two most unique candidates in American history – with both disliked by voters. Seventy percent of voters would like them replaced.</p>



<p>Not only is this the earliest debate, but it is the only General Election presidential debate that features two candidates who are not yet the official standard bearers for their parties.</p>



<p>In terms of its impact on the actual voting in the election, the debate will have minimal impact. ; It is too early to be on voters’ minds as they later cast their ballots.  ;Later events will put this debate in the rearview mirror –- not the least of which are the national conventions that will likely make Biden and Trump official standard bearers of the respective parties.</p>



<p>Going into the debate, both candidates have an Achilles Heel. For Biden, it is the ravages of age on his body and mind. He will have to perform on his feet for 90 minutes without the aid of a teleprompter &#8230; pre-scripted questions &#8230; pre-scripted responses &#8230; personal cheat sheets – or staffers to come to his rescue. Those are all things he has had at his rare press conferences, his carefully managed appearances and that highly praised State of the Union Speech.</p>



<p>My personal opinion is that he will do fine. ; Not because he is not suffering physical and mental decline, but at these initial stages he is mostly okay – and can rise to special occasions. ; ; ; On the other hand, if he does have a significant senior moment, the talk of a replacement will get more serious.</p>



<p>For Trump, the Achilles Heel is – as always – his acerbic personality and pugnacious behavior. Will he go on old rants about the 2020 election and other grievances? ; Keep interrupting or talking after his mic has been muted?</p>



<p>The personality debate will be based on the same rhetoric that we have heard for months – Biden is losing it and Trump is a madman who would end American democracy. ; With so many voters in the “double hater” class – 70 percent of them wishing both candidates would go away – it may be a wash. ; Although, polls suggest that slightly more voters are buying Biden as too old than are buying Trump is too crazy.</p>



<p>The persona of the two candidates is more important in this presidential debate than in the past, but there are such things as issues. ; To the extent they are debated, Trump has the advantage according to the polls. ; Most voters trust him to handle the issues that are MOST IMPORTANT TO THEM. ;</p>



<p>That highlighted phrase is very important.  ;While Biden maintains a clear lead on abortion – and a slim lead on the democracy issue, they do not rank high on the issues that are driving the vote.  ; ;When standing alone, abortion is a winner for Democrats, but when mixed in with other issues, not so much. ; In fact, in most surveys, abortion does not make it into the top 10 issues of major concern to voters. ; In terms of the top issues – inflation, economy, immigration, crime – Trump has the decided advantage.</p>



<p>In general, polls show voters saying that Trump did a better job as president than Biden. To counter that perception, Biden has adopted a new message – Trump is not the same person he was as president. ; Too early to tell if that message is working.</p>



<p>Expectations are also a factor in determining a winner. ; In that, Biden has a clear advantage. ; With so much criticism of Biden’s mental acuity, his bar for successful performance is very, very low. ; Personality and issues aside, if Biden does not lose his balance and fall to the floor &#8230; or does not go into a senior moment trance &#8230; or does not lose his train of thought &#8230; or not go into mumble-speak – he comes out a winner. ; AND, he has the advantage of a large partisan press that will declare him the winner even if he does fall to the floor &#8230; or does go into a senior moment trance &#8230; or does lose his train of thought &#8230; or does go into mumble-speak.</p>



<p>There is definitely the possibility of a breaking point event in the debate, but in my crystal ball, it will be more of a wash. ; The post-debate spin will be highly hyperbolic and partisan, but the long-term importance will be minimal. ; I would be surprised if the debate turned out to be a game changer.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

The debate that could change … nothing
