
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">As I often point out, elections are won or lost depending on what issues voters decide to decide upon. ; Republicans want voters to be thinking about inflation, crime and the border when they go to the polls. ; Democrats want voters to focus on abortion, climate change and Trump as the wrecking ball of the American democracy – with emphasis on the latter.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Republicans have the advantage in the issues because they talk about issues that most Americans can relate to personally. ; Democrats have one issue (pro-abortion) that does not have universal appeal. The climate apocalypse is too far off, and the threat-to-democracy argument is just a campaign narrative – which people will choose to believe or not. ; Based on polls, apparently it is not selling well.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Most polls put the economy as the number one concern. ; But is that the issue that will tip the voting decisions one way or the other? ; The most critical and decisive issue may be … age (read that as vitality). ; Specifically, President Biden’s age (vitality).</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In general, most American voters would prefer candidates other than President Biden or President Trump – but for different reasons. ; Regardless, it appears that is what the voters will get because the two major party mechanisms will separately produce presidential nominees most folks do not want. ; The two parties are responding to the will of the folks in their respective political silos – and not the will of the overall public.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While the economy and abortion will be important issues, I suspect that voters – especially that all-important uncommitted group – will be thinking of Biden’s age when they are marking their ballots.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We see some of that in polls. ; A large plurality – and even a majority in some polls – say that Biden is “too old to be President.” ; ; Hardline Democrats will still vote for him because of Trump, but they will not decide the outcome any more than hardline Republican voters will. ; Those two groups provide the base – not the critical mass.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are a number of reasons why I am inclined to think that age will be a much bigger issue than is generally reported or even seen in the polls.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The first reason is the size of the Biden-is-too-old numbers in the polls. It is a majority of all voters. ; But even a high percentage of Democrat voters think Biden is too old. That is an enormously significant statistic.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The second reason why I see age as the seminal issue is that it cannot be fixed. ; There is no counterpoint or pushback against age. ; If you are inclined to believe Biden is too old to be President today, you will still think he is too old tomorrow. ; In fact, he will be older.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The third reason is that between now and election day, Biden will exhibit evidence of his advancing age and decline in mental and physical vitality. ; There are likely to be “senior moments” or worse.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The fourth reason is that voters are already dubious that Biden will be able to complete a second term – whether he dies or becomes so incapacitated that it will be obvious to the public that he is incapable of carrying out the duties of the presidency. ; Aides and the media will not be able to ; conceal any worsening of his condition as they did with Franklin Roosevelt, who was dying during the campaign and died a few weeks after his inauguration to a fourth term. ; Fool we the people once, shame on you, ; Fool us twice … well you know.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The fifth reason is that the polls may not reflect the breadth and depth of voter concern over Biden’s age. ; One of the issues in analyzing polls is dealing with deceptive answers. ; People are reluctant to say they will vote a certain way if it makes them feel uneasy or unpopular. ; Some Trump voters may not admit their vote because of all the negative media associated with being a Trump supporter. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In one California election, the phenomenon was labeled the “Bradley Effect.” Tom Bradley was a black candidate for governor. ; He lost. ; The significant errors in the polling were attributed to those polled who did not want to say they were not voting for the black guy – especially if the person doing the phone survey sounded black. ; We may find that those being polled do not want to sound prejudiced against old people. ; People do lie to pollsters.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And indirectly related to the age issue is the sixth reason. ; Biden has a Kamala Harris problem. ; She has a bipartisan constituency who simply does not like her or her policies. ; She has a lower favorable rating than Biden – and his is not so good. ; Because she is not associated with making policy, she will not get any credit if the major issues turn in Biden’s favor. ; There is virtually nothing she can do to improve her standing ; with the American people. ; Voters do not want her behind the main desk in the Oval Office. ; The thought of her succeeding Biden is not a happy one. A very popular Vice President could assuage some concerns over Biden’s age. Harris intensifies them.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Despite all the efforts to make Biden look vital – and the limiting of his public exposure – the public is seeing what they see. They can talk about his energy and fine mind. ; But voters see the senior moments. Biden can do his one-second jogging as he walks. But the public also sees the falls. ; Even his obvious avoidance of unscripted public exposure is seen as a pragmatic strategy to avoid more gaffes.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The reason Biden’s age (vitality) resonates with voters to such an extent is because Biden IS too damn old to serve out a second term. ; In 2019, President Carter said that 80 is too old to be President. ; He is right.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

The age issue will defeat Biden
