House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy should not be elevated to Speaker of the House because he bears considerable responsibility for the GOP’s poor showing in the Midterm Election. He, as much as Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is responsible for the damage to the Republican Brand and the ongoing negative impact of Pelosi’s January 6th Select Committee. Pelosi did it by cunning. McCarthy did it by ineptitude.
McCarthy’s big (Huge? Colossal?) mistake was to allow the January 6th Committee to go forward without any legitimate voices as a counterbalance to Pelosi’s prosecutorial narratives. Outrage was legitimate when Pelosi — in an unprecedented and cynical move – refused to accept McCarthy’s appointments to the Committee. McCarthy should have appointed other members. There were many good ones from which to choose.
His response to name no Republicans, was entirely too stupid for a guy who wants a job that requires exceptional political skills. President Trump initially either proposed or endorsed the plan to refuse to fill the GOP side of the panel. (He has since opposed it). That only means McCarthy was taking his lead from a guy with even less strategic political skill than himself.
McCarthy’s second humongous blunder was kicking Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney out of leadership for her vote in favor of Trump’s impeachment. He should have let the voters decide her fate – as with the other nine Republicans who voted to impeach. They were not kicked off their committees.
As a leader – and a historically solid conservative vote – Cheney would not have become the maverick she turned out to be. She would not have been open to Pelosi’s invitation to join the Speaker’s kangaroo Committee – and without her, Congressman Adam Kirzinger would not have gone solo.
Instead, McCarthy gave Pelosi an opportunity to claim the panel was bipartisan since she had two Republicans in Cheney and Kinzinger – and to proceed with a relatively success campaign to damage the GOP heading into the 2022 Midterm Elections.
While those two monumental errors misjudgment should be enough to pass over McCarthy as Speaker, there have been no end of other lessor reasons. He lacks a political compass. He seems to react to the events of the moment – and changes hos positions as the events change. At the time of the Capitol Hill riot, he condemned Trump for not acting sooner to quell the mob. Later, McCarthy appears at Mar-a-Lago pushing back against his own on-scene opinions. Leadership requires a level of certainty. Unfortunately, McCarthy is the proverbial “uncertain trumpet”..
McCarthy is not a good spokesperson for the GOP. His stage presence is weak – and the man has zero charisma. He does not inspire confidence. There is no more important personal skill for a Speaker than to be able to speak … convincingly.
Can McCarthy be stopped?
In terms of the speakership, we are reaching the moment of truth. In a matter of days, the Republican members of the House they will control the House and have to elect the new Speaker.
Throughout the 2022 Midterm Election season, the prospect of Republicans winning control of the House has made the speakership a secondary story. For most of that period, it was not a big story because it seemed that Minority Leader McCarthy would be the guy.
Going into Election Day, it was believed by most political pundits that the GOP would pick up conservatively, 20 to 40 seats. Predictions of more than 60 seats were not considered outlandish. If ever the lower estimates had been achieved, it is likely that McCarthy would have picked up the Speaker’s gavel without meaningful challenge.
But … Republicans did not pick up 20 or more seats. In fact, they gained control of the House by nine seats – closely matching the Democrats previous narrow control margin.
Among the House Republicans there have always been up to a dozen of McCarthy detractors. Had the GOP won control of the House by a wide margin, they would not have been enough to stop McCarthy from becoming speaker. Now, however, a handful of “no” votes on McCarthy can doom his ambition.
There are more than enough to do that if they hold firm. A few are permanent “no” votes – but others are willing to give their vote to McCarthy for concessions – very significant concessions. The concessions involve such things as legislation, investigations, earmarks, committee assignments and fundraising.
Aide to Ukraine could be part of the negotiations. McCarthy already appears to have sided with the small minority of Republican members opposed to supporting the Kyiv government.
It is very possible that McCarthy will be able to meet the demands of the recalcitrant legislators and reach his life-long ambition – to be Speaker Kevin McCarthy. If that happens, it will be a mistake – and not a small one.
Virtually all of the most likely Republicans who will take over if McCarthy falls short would be better choices. My favorite is Louisiana Congressman Steve Scalise.
House Republicans need a new voice very badly. McCarthy has been a relatively ineffective Minority Leader for the GOP. It will be an even bigger disaster if they make him an ineffective Speaker.
So, there ‘tis.