You may recall that President Biden said he would impose “crippling sanctions” on Russia if they invaded Ukraine. You will also recall that he did not. In fact, he has been very slow and measured in imposing sanctions on Russia – even as the Madman of Moscow has expanded his war and engaged in widespread war crimes.
As expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin has proven to be very resilient when it comes to sanctions. One … because he can afford to be. Sanctions have never been a game-changer when it came to discouraging bad behavior by authoritarian dictators. And two … because the sanctions, themselves, are not doing what they we said to do.
Again, you need to recall how Biden and NATO were going to financially starve Russia by stopping the purchase of Russian oil. They shut down the Nord Stream pipeline, but not the Druzhba Pipeline. So far, Russian oil has been flowing into the market as much as ever. Putin also got financial benefit when OPEC raised world oil prices. The combination of not addressing the Druzhba Pipeline and restricting American production gave Putin $500 billion to fud his dirty little war.
That was a double blow to the United States because it not only gave Putin more oil income, but America at a price disadvantage because of Biden’s restrictive oil policies. China has also reduced the impact of western sanctions by increasing its purchase of Russian oil.
Then there was the all-important computer chip supply chain. Sanctioning Putin by cutting off sales of computer chips is more than a financial or domestic blow. Those chips are essential to the conduct of the war. Without them, Putin would be fighting a 21st Century war with 20th Century technology.
According to a report from Reuters New Service, the Biden sanctions have had no impact on the flow of essential computer chips to Russia. While the major western producers no longer sell directly to Russia, some have set up new companies that ship to Russia. Even NATO nations are engaging in bypassing the sanctions. A German company established a business relationship with a company in Turkey that is shipping the computer chip to Russia – and they are not alone.
Sanctions will never work unless there is a means of enforcing them. And that usually means military action. That is not a new concept. Germany attempted to stem the flow of American war equipment going to Great Britain in World War II by sinking the ships carrying the cargo. In the past, the United States intercepted ships carrying banned weapons to rogue nations and terrorists.
(I recently recommended that the United States and NATO intercept shipments of Iranian drones heading to the war zone in Ukraine.)
It seems that the matter of sanctions – in addition to military aid to Ukraine – is always inhibited by Putin’s nuclear saber rattling. This war will drag on – and Putin will win – unless the United States and allies provide Ukraine with the support and means necessary to win the war as defined by President Zelenskyy – the removal of Russian forces from all of Ukraine, including the Crimea. Sanctions are not doing it – and they will not.
The more time that goes by, the more Putin can develop new lines of supply. There are innumerable opportunities between China, Iran and North Korea – as well as those western producers skirting the sanctions.
So, there ‘tis.