<p>Despite promises to diversify, the country of Russia is more dependent on the price of oil today than it was when Putin first took power in 2000. ;</p>
<p>The Russian parliament&#8217;s recently approved 2016 budget is based on an oil price of $50 per barrel and Kremlin economists predict little to no economic growth for 2016. ;However, with the current price of Urals crude at $41 per barrel, Russia&#8217;s &#8220;base budget&#8221; is optimistic at best.</p>
<p>If the average price of oil during 2016 remains at $40, Russia&rsquo;s GDP is predicted to decline by 1.5%. ;The Ministry of Finance has also considered &ldquo;more risky&rdquo; scenarios, ;such as a drop to $35 per barrel, which would mean an economic shrinkage of ;2%-3% along with inflation and falling wages. ;</p>
<p>According to the current finance minister, Russia will face &ldquo;a complicated year&rdquo; if the average price dips to $30 per barrel. And in the words of a former finance minister, Russians would be wise to prepare for ;a biblical &ldquo;seven lean years.&rdquo; ;</p>
<p>In all scenarios excepting the hope of $50 per barrel, 2016 will mean a &ldquo;second wave&rdquo; of recession for Russia with falling pensions and wages, a diminishing ruble, and significant inflation. The president&rsquo;s predictions for 2016 have changed from recovery to &ldquo;reaching the bottom.&#8221;</p>
<p>During his annual, year-end press conference, Putin advised his country to prepare for &ldquo;belt tightening.&#8221; And after discussing investment plans and preparations for the 2018 World Cup, the Russian president attempted to reassure his audience with the somewhat confusing statement: &ldquo;The Russian economy has generally overcome the crisis, or at least the peak of the crisis, not the crisis itself.&rdquo; ;</p>
<p>Putin will face opposition next year from the people who were once his core supporters &ndash; blue-collar workers who are hardest hit when the economy stagnates. ;Meanwhile, the Kremlin faces a nationwide strike as truckers protest a federal highway tax and the corruption it signifies. <em>A full 70% of Moscow&rsquo;s inhabitants favor the truckers against the government.</em></p>
<p>If we&rsquo;ve learned anything from his past actions, Putin will most likely launch a foreign pre-election campaign, maybe in Ukraine, to distract Russia from its economic problems and incite Russian patriotism. But let&#8217;s not forget that the new Russian Duma will be made up of parties that are buoyed by electoral support and perhaps more willing to stand up to the almighty Putin. ;</p>
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