
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It would appear that the Ukrainian offense has begun – and it is a lot more complex than originally believed. It is no longer a war IN Ukraine between the Russian military and the Ukrainian military. The Russian side has broken down into several significant facets – and none of them benefiting Putin.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The war between the militaries</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Initially, the war was between the perceived mighty Russian military and the weaker Ukrainian forces. ; Most of the world – and especially Putin – expected the war to be over quickly, with Russian forces taking Kyiv in a matter of days. ; That would topple the government and President Zelenskyy would be dead.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Instead, the Russian war machine was not only stopped in its tracks but was pushed out of western Ukraine all together. ; Putin’s back-up strategy was to concentrate on ground gains in eastern Ukraine – and he had some success – most notably taking the “bridge” region between the Crimea and the Donbass.  ; These gains were difficult and took a heavy toll on Russian military assets. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Putin then concentrated on indiscriminate war criminal terrorist attacks on civilian targets throughout Ukraine. ; In yet another humanitarian atrocity, Putin blew up a major dam in Ukraine to hinder Ukraine’s forces from crossing the Dnieper River. ; These are acts of desperation with little long-term benefit to Putin’s ground war.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Over and over, the weakness and incompetence of the Russian military was on display. ; Desertion is a serious problem. ; It was obvious to everyone – including Putin – that there was no way Russia could conquer Ukraine without a lot of outside help.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-wagner-group">The Wagner Group</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To shore up its crumbling military, Putin turned to the Wagner Group – a brutal international mercenary group headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin’s former chef.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Initially, the Wagner Group proved to be a critical asset for Putin. ; Anywhere Russia was showing gains, the Wagner Group was involved. ; In many cases, they were outperforming the Russian military. ; It was the Wagner Group that took Bakhmut, not the Russian military. ; When Prigozhin threatened to pull out of Bakhmut, he predicted that the Russian military would not be able to hold it.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Prigozhin got increasingly critical of Putin and the Russian military. ; Today there is open hostility between the regular military and the mercenaries. ; They are even shooting at each other. Prigozhin recently captured a Russian colonel and accused Russian soldiers of planting mines in the Wagner Group’s retreat routes. ; Not only does Prigozhin attack Putin, but some also speculate that he wants to replace the Madman of Moscow.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In short, Putin is losing the loyalty and support of his most critical military asset.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Losing the means to wage war</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In addition to the problem with the Wagner Group, the war has exposed three critical weaknesses in the Russian military – insufficient equipment with inferior maintenance, an inadequate and properly trained fighting force, and incompetent strategists and commanders.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In the initial march on Kyiv, many of the Russian tanks broke down, and the invasion was paused because the invading forces outran their supply line. ; To make up for the high death, capture, and desertion rate among Russian fighters, Putin had to institute a very unpopular conscription program – which led to an exodus of young men fleeing Mother Russia.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To supplement his own dwindling stockpile of weapons, Putin has had to turn to other rogue nations. ; Iran is now its principal supplier for military drones. ; North Korea is believed to be another source of war equipment. ; Interestingly, China – which could do the most to help – has declined to give Putin more than verbal support and money for oil.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">On the other hand, NATO and other nations have built Ukraine into one of the leading military forces in the world. ; We could and should do more, but that is an issue I have covered in previous commentaries.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Attacks inside Mother Russia</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While Ukraine had denied attacking inside Russia – as a condition for getting American military equipment – it is almost certain that there have been some discreet attacks on military facilities in Russia and support for a growing insurgent movement within Russia. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One well organized and well supplied group mounted an attack on Belgorod &#8212; a strategic military town near the Russian/Ukrainian border. ; In addition, there have been scores of attacks on military assets throughout Russia – from drones to Molotov Cocktails. ; More symbolic than destructive was the drone attack on the Kremlin itself. ; That had to be launched from an area near Moscow.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The counteroffensive</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">All the aforementioned actions are only the precursor to what is believed will be a massive counteroffensive into the Russian held regions in the south and east. ; Ukrainian forces are already advancing with a very motivated, well trained, and fully equipped military force. ; As the old Vaudevillians used to say, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.” ; (For those too young for Vaudeville expressions, it was later used as the title of a song by the Canadian music group Bachman–Turner Overdrive.)</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The next month or two are likely to be the most critical in the war. ; Will the Ukraine offensive be as powerful as many predict? ; Or does Putin have more tricks up his sleeve – like blowing up dams &#8212; to blunt the counteroffensive? ; Will the offensive force Putin into negotiations? ; Or is Zelenskyy determined that the only acceptable outcome is the removal of Russian troops from every corner of Ukraine?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Putin dumped?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It is going so bad for Putin that there is credible speculation that he may be removed from power as those around him lose confidence in his leadership. ; Perhaps all the talk about serious health problems is the precursor. ; That may not be good news – depending on who would replace him.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are no crystal ball answers to those questions – only opinions. ; Mine is that this is the beginning of the end for Putin. ; What do you think?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

Putin’s Woes are Growing – Potential Civil War?
