It would appear that the Ukrainian offense has begun – and it is a lot more complex than originally believed. It is no longer a war IN Ukraine between the Russian military and the Ukrainian military. The Russian side has broken down into several significant facets – and none of them benefiting Putin.
The war between the militaries
Initially, the war was between the perceived mighty Russian military and the weaker Ukrainian forces. Most of the world – and especially Putin – expected the war to be over quickly, with Russian forces taking Kyiv in a matter of days. That would topple the government and President Zelenskyy would be dead.
Instead, the Russian war machine was not only stopped in its tracks but was pushed out of western Ukraine all together. Putin’s back-up strategy was to concentrate on ground gains in eastern Ukraine – and he had some success – most notably taking the “bridge” region between the Crimea and the Donbass. These gains were difficult and took a heavy toll on Russian military assets.
Putin then concentrated on indiscriminate war criminal terrorist attacks on civilian targets throughout Ukraine. In yet another humanitarian atrocity, Putin blew up a major dam in Ukraine to hinder Ukraine’s forces from crossing the Dnieper River. These are acts of desperation with little long-term benefit to Putin’s ground war.
Over and over, the weakness and incompetence of the Russian military was on display. Desertion is a serious problem. It was obvious to everyone – including Putin – that there was no way Russia could conquer Ukraine without a lot of outside help.
The Wagner Group
To shore up its crumbling military, Putin turned to the Wagner Group – a brutal international mercenary group headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin’s former chef.
Initially, the Wagner Group proved to be a critical asset for Putin. Anywhere Russia was showing gains, the Wagner Group was involved. In many cases, they were outperforming the Russian military. It was the Wagner Group that took Bakhmut, not the Russian military. When Prigozhin threatened to pull out of Bakhmut, he predicted that the Russian military would not be able to hold it.
Prigozhin got increasingly critical of Putin and the Russian military. Today there is open hostility between the regular military and the mercenaries. They are even shooting at each other. Prigozhin recently captured a Russian colonel and accused Russian soldiers of planting mines in the Wagner Group’s retreat routes. Not only does Prigozhin attack Putin, but some also speculate that he wants to replace the Madman of Moscow.
In short, Putin is losing the loyalty and support of his most critical military asset.
Losing the means to wage war
In addition to the problem with the Wagner Group, the war has exposed three critical weaknesses in the Russian military – insufficient equipment with inferior maintenance, an inadequate and properly trained fighting force, and incompetent strategists and commanders.
In the initial march on Kyiv, many of the Russian tanks broke down, and the invasion was paused because the invading forces outran their supply line. To make up for the high death, capture, and desertion rate among Russian fighters, Putin had to institute a very unpopular conscription program – which led to an exodus of young men fleeing Mother Russia.
To supplement his own dwindling stockpile of weapons, Putin has had to turn to other rogue nations. Iran is now its principal supplier for military drones. North Korea is believed to be another source of war equipment. Interestingly, China – which could do the most to help – has declined to give Putin more than verbal support and money for oil.
On the other hand, NATO and other nations have built Ukraine into one of the leading military forces in the world. We could and should do more, but that is an issue I have covered in previous commentaries.
Attacks inside Mother Russia
While Ukraine had denied attacking inside Russia – as a condition for getting American military equipment – it is almost certain that there have been some discreet attacks on military facilities in Russia and support for a growing insurgent movement within Russia.
One well organized and well supplied group mounted an attack on Belgorod — a strategic military town near the Russian/Ukrainian border. In addition, there have been scores of attacks on military assets throughout Russia – from drones to Molotov Cocktails. More symbolic than destructive was the drone attack on the Kremlin itself. That had to be launched from an area near Moscow.
The counteroffensive
All the aforementioned actions are only the precursor to what is believed will be a massive counteroffensive into the Russian held regions in the south and east. Ukrainian forces are already advancing with a very motivated, well trained, and fully equipped military force. As the old Vaudevillians used to say, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.” (For those too young for Vaudeville expressions, it was later used as the title of a song by the Canadian music group Bachman–Turner Overdrive.)
The next month or two are likely to be the most critical in the war. Will the Ukraine offensive be as powerful as many predict? Or does Putin have more tricks up his sleeve – like blowing up dams — to blunt the counteroffensive? Will the offensive force Putin into negotiations? Or is Zelenskyy determined that the only acceptable outcome is the removal of Russian troops from every corner of Ukraine?
Putin dumped?
It is going so bad for Putin that there is credible speculation that he may be removed from power as those around him lose confidence in his leadership. Perhaps all the talk about serious health problems is the precursor. That may not be good news – depending on who would replace him.
There are no crystal ball answers to those questions – only opinions. Mine is that this is the beginning of the end for Putin. What do you think?
So, there ‘tis.