Putin Plays the Long Game While Trump Races the Clock

In the past few months Trump’s advisors had claimed that the United States holds the upper hand in ending the war in Ukraine, that Putin could be bent into a cease fire and a favorable settlement. But according to our sources, this is not the case, General Kellogg, et. al. have given poor advice and have been forced to scramble to adjust to reality.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has carefully positioned himself with strong strategic advantages. He controls key Ukrainian territory, holds onto Russia’s only warm-water naval base in Crimea, and has proven that Russia can survive international sanctions far better than many expected. According to one expert, “Putin has a huge advantage. All he has to do is sit there.”

From a geopolitical standpoint, Russia is in a far more stable position than many of its adversaries. While European countries struggle with rising energy costs and internal political divisions, Putin has kept a firm grip on power, managed dissent at home, and maintained support from allies like China and Iran. His economy, though weakened by sanctions, has not collapsed. Instead, it has adapted. Russia has found new trade routes and alternative partners while continuing to finance its military operations in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, President Trump is facing a ticking clock. During his campaign and early in his second term, Trump repeatedly said he could stop the war in Ukraine quickly. That promise now puts pressure on him to show results. “Trump wants to have this as a win,” said one source, noting that Trump believed peace could be achieved in a matter of weeks. However, that expectation may have been based on flawed advice. According to our sources, Trump was misled by his advisors — particularly General Keith Kellogg — who underestimated Putin’s position and overestimated America’s leverage.

Putin’s Outlandish Proposals Hide a Careful Strategy

In recent weeks, Putin has made a number of bold public statements about what a peace deal should look like. These suggestions have drawn criticism from both the United States and Ukraine. On March 28, speaking in Murmansk, Russia, Putin proposed that Ukraine hold new elections and that the country be governed by a “transitional administration” under the guidance of the United Nations. “We could, of course, discuss with the United States, even with European countries, and of course with our partners and friends, under the auspices of the U.N., the possibility of establishing a transitional administration in Ukraine,” Putin said.

This proposal was immediately rejected by the White House. A U.S. national security spokesperson responded by saying that Ukraine’s government was “determined by its constitution and citizens.” The Ukrainian constitution does not allow elections during wartime, and many leaders in Kyiv and Washington saw Putin’s plan as a way to force out President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and install a more pro-Russian government.

Putin has also claimed that Zelenskyy’s mandate is no longer legitimate because Ukraine did not hold presidential elections in 2024, a delay required under martial law. While Putin criticizes Zelenskyy’s authority, his own rule has spanned 25 years, with elections widely considered illegitimate. Despite his claims, a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology recently found that 69 percent of Ukrainians still trust Zelenskyy’s leadership.

By pushing such extreme demands, Putin is not only trying to reshape the conversation around Ukraine’s future but also buying time. Each proposal allows him to stall peace negotiations while continuing military operations. It is a classic strategy of controlled delay — not dissimilar from a chess grandmaster playing a slow game to wear down a faster-moving opponent.

Trump’s Measured Reaction and Warnings

In response to Putin’s recent remarks, Trump made clear that he disapproved of the idea of removing Zelenskyy. In an interview with NBC News, Trump said, “I was very angry, pissed off, when Putin said yesterday that — you know, when Putin started getting into Zelensky’s credibility, because that’s not going in the right location, you understand?” He emphasized that pushing for new leadership in Ukraine would only drag out the process. “But new leadership means you’re not gonna have a deal for a long time, right?” he asked.

Despite his disagreement with Putin’s proposals, Trump avoided fully escalating the conflict. He did, however, issue a strong warning: if Russia is seen as responsible for continued bloodshed, the U.S. could impose a 25 to 50 percent tariff on all Russian oil exports. “If I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” he said.

This approach signals that while Trump is serious about pushing for a ceasefire, he is also being careful. Unlike in past conflicts, he has not rushed to label Russia as the sole aggressor or threaten military action. Instead, he appears to be balancing diplomacy with economic pressure.

A Well-Laid Trap

Putin’s strategy has caught even seasoned diplomats off guard. While the Trump administration continues to push for a 30-day ceasefire and negotiations, Russia has made repeated moves to undermine the process. Shortly after agreeing to pause strikes in the Black Sea and on energy infrastructure, Russia launched drone attacks on a Ukrainian hospital in Kharkiv, killing two civilians and wounding many others. These actions make it clear that any ceasefire agreement could be fragile at best.

Despite setbacks, Trump’s team remains committed to talks. U.S. diplomats met with Russian and Ukrainian officials in Riyadh and reported some progress. But Russia quickly added new conditions. Moscow now says that any truce will only take effect if sanctions on Russian banks are lifted — a detail not included in the U.S. version of the agreement.

Even Trump has acknowledged that Putin may be using delay tactics. “It could be that they’re dragging their feet,” he said. “I’ve done it over the years. You know, I don’t want to sign a contract, I want to sort of stay in the game.” The comment reflects a rare moment of candor, as Trump hints that Putin may be playing a similar game — keeping negotiations alive while continuing to pursue military and political gains.

A Calculated Opponent

There are few in the world who can match Trump’s ability to negotiate and wield power. Putin is one of them.

It was noted to me recently that a great many politicians fit the classic “narcissist” pattern, including every President in recent history. Putin almost certainly falls into this category. Some of these underestimations might be seen as disrespect, something you do not do to Putin. Part of his goal (and easily accomplished in this scenario) may be a certain amount of humiliation for Trump. And perhaps deservedly so, given the arrogance of his advisors in telling Trump he could push Putin. They all should have known better.

Trump is not happy, heads should roll.