As countries pile on “sanctions,” many of which are only “pseudo” sanctions with almost no effect, we see a lot of virtue signaling and “seal clapping.”
But if I read this right and interpret George’s, Felix’s and Michael’s commentary correctly, this war is already over.
Fighting continues in Ukraine, except this has become a “gentle invasion” per George McMillan’s commentary.
Internet, water, phones are still working. Roads, factories and other infrastructure are not being destroyed, as would be the case in a real war.
Civilians are not being killed. In fact, the civilians who have thrown stuff at soldiers are being ignored. The pictures being shown in the U.S. and western media are anecdotal and frankly not that bad. Body counts and instances of brutality do not seem to be the number one topic of the day
The Ukrainian military is toast. Their air force is gone, their navy is gone (whatever was there to begin with). Where fighting has been happening Ukraine forces are not faring well. The Russians are controlling whatever they need to control.
In fact, Putin controls most of eastern Ukraine now, well beyond the “newly independent” regions of Ukraine that have been “liberated.”
The sanctions from Biden and the Western world have barely taken effect, and probably will do no substantial damage for the first month or so.
And Ukraine and Russia are already at the bargaining table. A brief interruption has already caused renewed Russian fighting, meaning Putin is setting the table for getting exactly what he wants – or else.
And if he moves fast enough to negotiate the return of the excess ground that he took (and didn’t want anyway), the sanctions will be over, having not had much effect. He will get to keep what he was after in the first place.
Putin has finally let us know he is five steps ahead of Biden. Not only does it make NATO reluctant to step in militarily, and make NATO more willing to negotiate out of it, but it also ensures that the next time he does it NATO will do the same. So Putin can carve out places piece by piece knowing that NATO doesn’t have the stomach to stop him – unless there are severe atrocities (which he avoids – for now…).
Putin will have a stranglehold on Europe’s oil and gas. That protects Russia’s borders and NATO creep into the former Soviet territory, but it won’t be enough, this will continue.
The video below is an update featuring PBP contributor George McMillan, hosted by the famous and excellent Felix Rex, with special guest Michael De La Broc, who is on the ground in Kyiv. Follow the details and see if you agree with my assessment.
