
<p>I grew up in Chicago in the era of movie-style shoot ‘em up gangsters. ; We always considered it good news when mobsters knocked each other off. ; I was reminded of that seeing the recent conflict between two of the world’s most evil ; and ruthless gangsters – Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group Commander Yevgeny Prigozhin. ; There are no good guys in that confrontation – only the possibility of a good outcome.</p>



<p>Like the old Chicago Mafia wars both Putin and Prigozhin preside over criminal organizations. ; In their pursuit of power or profit, both men are responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands – arguably even millions. ; That have stolen and embezzled multi-billions of dollars in cash and valuables. ; They are both guilty of war crimes against humanity. ; They have both summarily murdered adversaries.</p>



<p>Prigozhin was once one of Putin’s most intimate trusted confidants inside the Kremlin. ; If that were not the case, the paranoid Putin would never have allowed Prigozhin to prepare his food.</p>



<p>It was under Putin’s sponsorship that Prigozhin was given the mandate and the resources to create the mercenary Wagner Group. ; It was to be Putin’s off-the-books military force. ; It served that purpose in Syria, Libya, central Africa and other locations – most notably in Ukraine. ; ;</p>



<p>The Wagner Group was composed of career soldiers and social misfits – many of whom were recruited out of prisons. ; In many ways, they were the dregs of society. ; Prigozhin, himself, is a convicted criminal and one of those indicted for the Russian meddling in the 2016 American election.</p>



<p>The Wagner Group was the military backbone for Putin’s ambition to take over Ukraine. ; Composed of dedicated and experienced fighters, the Wagner Group had the military competence and training that the conscripted and reluctant regular Russian soldiers lacked.  ; Prigozhin’s Group was a key part of the separatist movement that took control of the Crimea and continued the military occupation of eastern Ukraine long before Putin’s invasion – and it was key to gaining initial ground during the invasion.</p>



<p>Over time, the relationship between them changed. ; First it was criticism of a corrupt Russian military establishment which – in Prigozhin’s judgment – were not serving Putin well. ; He claimed that his Wagner Group was not being adequately supported and supplied. ; Prigozhin avoided openly criticizing Putin because that is against the law in Russia – but a schism developed between Prigozhin and the top brass ; in Moscow.</p>



<p>The verbal warfare between Prigozhin in the field and the generals in the Kremlin expanded to incidents of military conflict. ; Prigozhin accused the Russian military of actually attacking his troops. ; The schism between Prigozhin and Putin resulted in Wagner Group pulling out of Bakhmut after gaining control of that city – predicting that the Russian troops would not be able to retain control. ; That seems to be the case in the face of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. ; Prigozhin was literally surrendering the city back to Ukraine forces.</p>



<p>As unimaginable as it may seem, the rift between Putin and Prigozhin has arisen to the level of open warfare. ; The breaking point was a major attack by Russian troops on Prigozhin’s army – killing a large number of soldiers. ; Some analysts viewed it as the first round in an effort by Putin to destroy the Wagner Group and ultimately kill Prigozhin &#8212; who Putin has now declared to be an enemy of the state and a coup plotter.</p>



<p>In a recent speech, Putin accused Prigozhin of treason and promised to punish him and his soldiers. ; Prigozhin knows that Putin’s remarks are tantamount to a death sentence. ; The conflict between the two had become mortal combat.</p>



<p>The seriousness of Prigozhin’s threat seemed evident in the fact that Putin ordered what is left of his military inside Mother Russia to form a defensive line around Moscow – with tanks and troops surrounding the Kremlin. ; The Wagner Group was on the move – reaching just 25 miles from Moscow.</p>



<p>Nothing since the precipitous collapse of the old Soviet Union had taken the world by greater surprise then the recent turn of events inside Russia. ; It raised innumerable questions about Prigozhin’s ambition and ability. ; It forced a reassessment of Putin’s hold on power.</p>



<p>Within 24 hours, there was said to be a peace deal between Putin and Prigozhin – and the Wagner leaders ordered his troops to end their advance on the Kremlin. ; The Wagner Group would be absorbed into the regular Russian military and Prigozhin would exile himself in Belarus. ; Apparently, the deal was brokered by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. ;</p>



<p>The sudden about face by Prigozhin was as surprising as his Insurrection(?) … coup attempt (?) … or whatever it was.</p>



<p>The Prigozhin /Putin confrontation has ended, but it is not over. ; Is Prigozhin under investigation by the Putin government? ; Is Prigozhin “retiring” in Belarus … or re-grouping? ; Like a typical Mafioso, had Putin ordered his enforcers to take out Prigozhin?</p>



<p>And what about Putin himself. ; There seems to be a general consensus that Putin is significantly weakened – even to the point of being ousted from power. ; That may be more wishful thinking than solid intelligence analysis.</p>



<p>As of this moment, the threat to Putin from the Wagner Group is over. ; Prigozhin is a military leader without a military. ; Putin’s generals have not been replaced – as Prigozhin demanded. ; In fact, there were no defections by the Russian military or those surrounding Putin. With Prigozhin sidetracked, there seems to be no heir to lead the insurrection. ; There was no general uprising among the people.</p>



<p>So … was the march on Moscow the attempted launch of another Russian revolution or more of a Gilbert and Sullivan production. ; No one seems to know because no one has been able to explain why Prigozhin launched his insurrection – and why he ended it so unceremoniously. ;</p>



<p>But it has provided a benefit to the Ukrainians. ; The most effective military force on the Russian side of the invasion has descended into chaos and uncertainty – leaving the Russian military weakened and confused. ; ;</p>



<p>It could not have come at a better time for the Ukrainians – at the onset of the Spring counteroffensive. ; The Wagner Group is gone for now. ; The Russian military in Ukraine is in disarray. ; The Wagner Group’s withdrawal has resulted in a number of new “weak points” in the Russian line of defense.</p>



<p>To speculate on the potential of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it is important to understand that the only thing slowing the advance of Zelenskyy’s military are physical defense barriers – essentially trenches and land mines. ; Without those, the Russian military would be routed from key locations fairly quickly.</p>



<p>There is every reason to believe that Putin will survive both his ill-conceived war in Ukraine and the rebellion from Prigozhin. ; ; ;</p>



<p>Many say that Putin is weakened – even to the point of political impotency. ; Some speculate on his ousting. ; However, nothing at the time of this writing suggest that Putin will not suffer any more serious consequences than he is having from his ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine. ; At this moment his grip on power is still firm. ; He is in charge – and will be until he isn’t.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Putin is in Charge … Until He is Not
