The International Crime Court (ICC) has charged Russian President Vladimir Putin with war crimes and issued an order for his arrest. The odds that the Madman of Moscow will actually be arrested, convicted, and imprisoned are rather remote. There is virtually no chance of incarceration if Putin remains in power and stays out of countries that would execute the arrest warrant and turn him over to the ICC to stand trial.
You might think that the targeting and killing of thousands of civilian men, women, and children with his deadly air attacks would be reason enough for the indictment by the ICC. No so. It is the kidnapping of more than 6,000 Ukrainian children – bringing them to Russia for indoctrination – that has caused Putin to be accused of war crimes. An addition to Putin, the ICC has also charged Commissioner of Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova.
In a statement dismissing the charges, the Kremlin said that Russia never signed on as a party to the ICC. That does not make a lot of difference since Putin would not respond to the arrest warrant under any circumstances.
It is an unusual move by the ICC. It is almost =unprecedented for a sitting head-of-state to be formally indicted as a war criminal. That usually happens after the accused has been removed from office.
Though Putin is not likely to stand trial in the absence of a coup, the action by the ICC has very real problems for the Russian leader.
The most obvious problem is damage to his reputation. Putin is already the subject of severe criticism by most nations. He is considered an international pariah. This compounds the issue. It will be harder for heads-of-state to associate with Putting – notwithstanding China President Xi’s recent visit.
It will also limit Putin’s ability to travel to the 123 nations that are party to the ICC – even nations, such as the United States, that have not signed on as an ICC party but could arrest Putin anyway. This means no appearances at the United Nations in New York City.
While Putin maintains a significant level of public support among the Russian people – especially those in the major urban centers – the indictment as a war criminal will erode that support and give provide more energy for the anti-Putin democratic forces inside Russia.
In a very real sense, it undermines Putin’s authority as the legitimate leader of Russia – instead casting him as a rogue despot.
The ICC’s action clearly declares Putin to be the villain in the Ukraine conflict. That will bolster support by providing more military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. It gives legitimacy to the Ukrainian position that they are an independent nation that has been invaded – and rebuts Putin’s contention that Ukraine is part of Russia and that the people of Ukraine were to be reunited with a motherland.
Whether the mission will be accomplished, but the ICC’s action increases the possibility that Putin will not survive as the Russian leader in the future. And in that regard, the sooner, the better.
So, there ‘tis.