
<p>As the world focuses on the Russian situation in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has a growing problem within CSTO – the Collective Security Treaty Organization. ; Never heard of it? ; It is the counterpart to NATO and includes six nations that were once part of the old Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) – but which maintain loyalty to Moscow. ;</p>



<p>They are, for the most part, independent nations – and not like the “captive nations” that comprised the old Soviet empire. ; But in many ways, however, it is a distinction without a difference. ; Russia maintains a military presence in each of them.</p>



<p>Unlike NATO, CSTO has nations with unresolved historic enmity and conflicts. ; Since the invasion of Ukraine, two of those conflicts are no longer simmering. Hostilities have broken out.</p>



<p><strong>Azerbaijan and Armenia: </strong>Fighting has broken out along a shared border between Azerbaijan and Armenia – breaking a tenuous ceasefire. ; It has been estimated that more than 200 soldiers have been killed on both sides of the conflict.</p>



<p><strong>Tajikistan against Kyrgyzstan: </strong>The cease-fire between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan broke down recently with Tajikistan’s renewed shelling of its rival. ; ; ;</p>



<p>All four of the nations involved are members of the 6-member CSTO – the other two being Russia and Belarus. ; Putin has called on them to cease hostilities – and has been able to invoke ceasefires from time to time. ; But with the invasion of Ukraine, Putin lost more than moral authority. ; He has had to empty the barracks of soldiers and weapons that have been at military installations in these countries – essentially keeping the lid on.</p>



<p>According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin &#8220;has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally stationed in Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia&#8217;s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states.&#8221;</p>



<p>Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty reported that 1,500 Russian personnel had been sent from Tajikistan to Ukraine – and another 600 were expected to be redeployed in the future.</p>



<p>While there is currently a fragile ceasefire in these conflicts, any resumption of fighting puts Putin in a very tough position. ; Just as NATO has Article 5 – which declares that an attack on any one NATO member is an attack on the alliance, with mandated response – CSTO has a similar provision, Article 4.</p>



<p>Should Tajikistan start shelling Kyrgyzstan again, it would require a unified CSTO response – including from Russia. ; Putin would have to respond militarily against Tajikistan &#8212; taking up military personnel and equipment he cannot spare – not to mention the issue of taking up arms against an ally. ; He could – and most likely would – ignore Article 4 and try to jawbone a ceasefire as he has in the past – rendering the mutual defense provision meaningless.</p>



<p>With Putin’s attention and military being focused on Ukraine, insurgent activities have been on the rise in Georgia and Chechnya – which are not members of CSTO.</p>



<p>The fact that CSTO (Putin) has ignored CSTO’s internal conflicts in the past has led to a general belief by the member-states that the Alliance has little value. ; In the current situation, CSTO is of no benefit to Putin and he is of no benefit to the members. ; Some international analysts believe CSTO will dissolve into irrelevancy – and maybe already has. ; But it still presents more headaches for the Madman of Moscow.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>



<p>Author Note: ; The photo atop this commentary is of the entire CSTO membership. ; Think about that when you next see a photo of the NATO leaders.</p>

Putin has a growing CSTO problem
