
<p>President Biden finally conceded to the inevitable. One way or the other, he would not be residing in the White House after January 20, 2025. There is no doubt there is a significant level of agony in giving up the presidency &#8212; especially since he now knows he was facing an almost certain crushing defeat at the hand of his political nemesis, Donald Trump. Biden was being beaten so badly that he could not even be allowed to remain in the race. So much for the “I am the only one who can beat Trump.” Ouch!</p>



<p>Contrary to the media narrative, it was not last minute decision. At least two news outlets had quoted a top White House source saying that Biden had previously decided to announce his withdrawal over this past weekend – and they reported it five days ahead of the announcement.</p>



<p>Despite the calls for an open convention and a vetting process – to hear from several potential candidates &#8212; the fix was in for Vice President Harris. Privately, the major endorsements were lined up and the millions of fundraising emails were just waiting for the “send” button to be pushed.</p>



<p>Yes, there are a few formalities to work out, but unless something dramatic occurs, Harris will be the Democrats’ standard bearer heading into the November election.</p>



<p>So, what about Harris? ; ; Let’s take a look at Harris in terms of the pros and cons – and even things that may cut both ways depending on one’s viewpoint.</p>



<p>Obviously, Harris’ biggest advantage is that she is the incumbent Vice President of the United States – with all the advantages that provides. That includes name recognition &#8230; national exposure &#8230; and the immediate acquisition of the Biden/Harris campaign infrastructure and money.</p>



<p>With Biden’s endorsement, Harris has the support of the lion’s (or the lioness’) share of the delegates. ; After all, they have already voted for her as part of the team.</p>



<p>To appreciate the advantages the office provides, ask yourself this question. ; If she were not the Vice President of the United States, would Harris be in contention for the Democrat nomination today? ; If you answered “yes,” you need to brush up on your political understanding. ; Incumbency is arguably THE most important advantage for Harris.</p>



<p>So, what are her assets and liabilities in a campaign against Trump?</p>



<p>The most obvious advantage is that she eliminates the age and mental acuity issue that crippled Biden. To some extent, there is a reversal of polarities since Trump is now the “old” candidate or even the “too old” candidate. Those on the left are already spinning that he is a dementia victim with a psychopathic personality. In fact, conservative apostate George Conway has launched an anti-Trump Political Action Committee (PAC) called the Anti-Psychopath PAC.</p>



<p>Those accusation against Trump is the dog that will not hunt. ; Most folks see a rather healthy and robust candidate no matter what they might think of him and his politics. ; The claim appeals to the acolytes but has not been effective with less partisan and more objective voters.</p>



<p>Another advantage for Harris is that she is not bogged down with legal and criminality issues. ; That scale was somewhat balanced by Biden’s issues. ; He had his own issue concerning the improper removal of government documents. ; His son, Hunter, is now a convicted felon and some of his business dealings appear to embroil Papa Biden as ‘The Big Guy.”</p>



<p>Harris is not a great orator, but better than Biden – even before his mental issues came to the surface. She seems to have taken control of her grating cackle, but still produces verbal “word salads.” Fortunately for Harris, she is not facing a Ronald Reagan in terms of public communication skills and messaging. Harris is more likely to hold her own in a debate with Trump.</p>



<p>Some analysts say Harris will be a major game changer. As a somewhat fresh face, she will cause a major shift in the voting pattern – and surge ahead of Trump. That is the giddy message being broadcast by the Democrats in the wake of Biden’s departure. I am not so sure.</p>



<p>The challenge for Harris is that a good 80 to 90 percent of the voters have made up their minds – and they are currently leaning to Trump and have been for almost a year. ; According to polls, Trump leads over Harris 52 to 48 percent. ; There is a caveat, however. ; Those polls were speculative – prior to Biden’s withdrawal. ; It will be a matter of weeks – after the Democratic National Convention &#8212; before we can draw any conclusions about Harris strength over the long haul.</p>



<p>Like Biden, Harris polls worse in battleground states than she does across the nation. That is because Democrats win by huge majorities in the largest states and Republicans win in the largest number of smaller states – and the final outcome is up to a handful of swing states to put one candidate or the other over the top in the all-important Electoral College.</p>



<p>Harris will have to win over a lot of votes to just come up even with Trump – AND she will have to get her winning margin from a very small pool of voters. ; So, where does she gain?</p>



<p>Wherever she gets them, it will be in small increments. ; There is some small potential with that sliver of independent voters who are truly on the fence.  ;But there are not enough to tip the scale for her – and she was losing among independents prior to her coronation.</p>



<p>Some argue that she will “bring home” Black voters who are now shifting to Trump. ; That may not be the case. ; Harris is not as popular among African American Blacks as one might think. ; First of all, she is half Indian – and tends to accentuate that part of her ancestry with frequent public statements about her mother. ;</p>



<p>Harris has a white husband. ; While it is not something we hear about in open conversation, there are lot of folks in the Black community who do not like mixed marriages. ; They see that as a form of racial rejection.</p>



<p>White liberals—without much direct experience in the Black community – see everyone with dark skin as one culture, that is not how the various cultures see themselves. ; In fact, there is also a cultural divide between the so-called African Blacks and the Caribbean “islanders.”</p>



<p>Many Black voters are critical of Harris’ days as California Attorney General, when she was very aggressive in sending young Black men to prison. This is significant since it is the young Black male voters she would have to win back. She does nothing to attract Hispanic voters who are trending to Trump. Ironically, the repackaged Harris has flipped to the soft-on-crime side – even putting up parole money for rioters.</p>



<p>On the issues that matter most to voters, she is tied to policies in which Trump dominates – the economy and immigration. She is especially vulnerable on immigration since most voters see her handling of the border issues as an abject failure. She is also on the downside on crime and cultural issues. She may be too woken for the American voter. She is harder on Israel than even Biden was. That is why Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and the squad wetting the panties over her.</p>



<p>Harris’ one winning issue is abortion. She is in line with 60 percent of the electorate. However, it ranks down the line in the list of issues of greatest concern to voters – in some polling, not even in the top ten. It is an issue that she cannot resolve. She can promise legislation to overrule the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and to stop efforts by Republicans to pass a national ban on abortion. In reality, neither of those actions will occur – or even be considered by Congress. There will be no national ban on abortions and no national legislation to legalize them. It is all empty campaign rhetoric on both sides.</p>



<p>Abortion is one of the “women’s issues.” ; That demographic has pretty well solidified in terms of Biden and Trump. ; Does Harris change the dynamic? ; Can she cut into Trump’s female vote? ; Again, not significantly, but every little bit helps.</p>



<p>Same with young voters. ; Trump gets a good share of the 18 to 30 crowd, but it is predominantly the men. ; It will not be easy for Harris to appeal to them.</p>



<p>Then there are the older voters. ; She may actually suffer a loss from that crowd. Some – rightly or wrongly &#8212; may find it difficult to envision a woman as President. ; While they may be Democrats, they are far from the radical variety. ; Harris’ wokeness could be a problem with them.</p>



<p>Harris will have the enthusiastic support of labor leaders, but she may have more problems with the rank-in-file. ; That has been a problem for Democrats since President Reagan.</p>



<p>Perhaps Harris’ biggest problems are the intangible issues. For whatever reasons, Harris has rather a poor shelf appeal. She lacks charisma. Voters tend not to like her. They do not hate her, but she is just not someone with whom they want to have dinner. That is why her fledgling run for president in 2020 rose and crashed so quickly. Once voters got to know her better, they quickly lost interest – and it was not based on issues. </p>



<p>Yes, there is a unified celebratory mood among Democrats – at least those going public. But what about the anger and hard feelings? The assumption is that every Biden voter will be a Harris voter. That would require a lot of people on Team Biden to set aside their anger at the political establishment who forced Biden out. They may not become Trump voters, but they could express their anger and frustration by staying home. There are among Biden voters are people who do not like Harris &#8212; and do not want her in the White House. Her challenge is not only attracting voters but to keep too many voters from moving away from her.</p>



<p>Harris’ greatest asset may be her opponent. Trump is a candidate with a lot of baggage, and those on the left are trying hard – maybe too hard – to pile on a lot more. They are driven by an inability to imagine that Trump could possibly return to the White House – even more than their inability to imagine Trump winning in 2016. </p>



<p>But it is Trump himself, who could hand the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to Harris. ; He tends to be rather pugnacious and aggressive in characterizing his competition. ; This would be the first time he is up against a Black female in a political correctness woke environment.</p>



<p>There is also the fact that since 2016, Trump &#8212; and Republicans – tend to fad rather than surge in the closing days of campaigns. If that holds true in 2024, the election will be even closer than it appears today.</p>



<p>At this moment, Trump holds the lead. ; Most observers on both sides see him as a BIG winner if the trajectory does not change. ; That is the entire reason for replacing Biden with Harris. ; It was a strategy born of desperation – better to crash the car into the wall than go over the washed out bridge.</p>



<p>Once the forced euphoria ebbs – as it most certainly will – we will get a better understanding of how the presidential race is advancing. It all comes down to whether voters will hate Trump (the Democrat strategy) more than they are concerned about other issues – such as inflation, immigration, crime, foreign policy – (the Republican strategy).</p>



<p>One thing can be said for sure &#8230; it will be interesting.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

President Harris? Not so fast
