Alice Green | Aug 1, 2022 | 4
Predictions for New Hampshire Primaries
The New Hampshire Presidential primaries are set for Tuesday, February 10th, the second primary and said to be a predictor of the winner in later primaries. So this is important folks! We’ve decided to take yet another ego trip and make our predictions for the results.
Donald Trump will likely win by 10-15 points, he is well ahead in the polls and did very well in Saturdays debate. His events have attracted vast crowds and his poll numbers are singing. The real race here is for 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place, between Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich. We believe the rest of the candidates are too low in the polls and therefore irrelevant. However the polls are inconclusive about those middle positions.
Ted Cruz is a strong performer nationally who did well in Saturday’s debate and who has a strong team in New Hampshire. We pick him in the number two spot, despite the polls saying he is third or fourth. The polls are all over the place, and New Hampshire is a mix of small and opinionated populations, so margins of error will be larger than indicated.
John Kasich did well in the debates, but perhaps not standing out as well as he should have. However he has been focused on New Hampshire for many weeks now, and his practical attitude and experience are very compatible with New Hampshire sensibilities. I am predicting him in third place.
I am rooting for him to come in second ahead of Cruz, since that would mean vast support moving forward and likely backing from the RNC, which continues to be uncomfortable with Trump. A strong governor in the race will provide a good choice. If Trump still wins the Republican primary, it will be a legitimate win among legitimate choices, not just Trump and two freshman senators. I was anticipating Bush in this role, but Bush doesn’t seem to be emerging.
I anticipate Marco Rubio’s support will fall in the eyes of the voters based on Saturday’s debate. In a previous article, I predicted him as a third place finisher, but I now believe he will come in fourth.
Jeb Bush is not well supported in the polls and while his debate performance was good, it was not breakout. He will be fifth. I’m really not sure what he is waiting for.
This is Bernie Sander’s turf, he is a Vermont Senator, so New Hampshirites have known him for many years. Sander’s knows how to communicate and has volunteers from his home state in ready supply less than two hours from any part of New Hampshire. He has a big lead in the polls, the only thing in doubt is the margin, which we believe will be 15-20 points over Hillary Clinton.
This is how we call it.