Polls: Cruz Campaign Crumbling, Trump's Lead Still Healthy
Everybody’s talking about Ted Cruz and John Kasich as we draw closer to the pivotal New York primary. The Ohio governor seems to be doing far better than anyone predicted, but the Texas Senator is losing momentum.
Major polls show Cruz in third place behind Kasich and Trump in New York, Connecticut, and Maryland, with one poll showing Kasich beating him in Pennsylvania. He remains in second place in California, but support is flagging.
Despite all this drama with Kasich and Cruz, let’s not forget that Trump is still the clear frontrunner. Nationally, the latest Fox News poll has our favorite billionaire in the lead with 45 points. Cruz and Kasich are neck-in-neck with 27 and 25 points respectively.
In New York, Trump leads with 49 points to Kasich’s 23 and Cruz’s 14. In Maryland, a Monmouth polls shows Trump in the lead with 47 points to Kasich’s 27 and Cruz’s 19. In Connecticut, an Emerson poll shows Trump with 50 points to Kasich’s 26 and Cruz’s 17. In Pennsylvania, Trump is in the lead with 48 points to Cruz’s 20 and Kasich’s 22. Both Connecticut and Pennsylvania will hold their primaries later this month on April 26th.
As I mentioned above, Cruz is still ahead of Kasich in California – but lags behind Trump by 7 points. In terms of delegates, California is a winner-take-all state. Each Congressional District, of which there are 53, will award 3 delegates to the winner of the district. In addition, the Golden State has 10 at-large delegates that will be awarded to whomever takes the state. California will hold its GOP Primary on June 7th.
Moving into next week, it seems the New York Primary is a shoo-in for Trump and Clinton, both locals who live and work in the Big Apple. A recent episode of Fox News’ On the Record presented a NY-1/Baruch College Poll showing Trump with a dramatic 60% to Kasich’s 17% and Cruz’s measly 14%.
When asked why Trump is doing so well in New York, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich said, “He feels like a New Yorker and he talks like a New Yorker and people said, ‘Welcome home.’ I have to say 60% is big…if that poll is anywhere close to accurate you’re gonna get a blowout, he’ll pick up 95 delegates and that will be very impressive.”
In regards to Cruz’s disappointing performance, Gingrich says, “When Cruz is running third…it’s very hard to argue you’re the key alternative when you’re in third place. If the numbers we just saw are anywhere close to right and Cruz is down at 14% or 15%…it is really gonna be challenging for him.”
Gingrich went on to say that Cruz stands to repeat this performance in Pennsylvania – potentially in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Jersey as well. By the time we get to Indiana, “by that stage Trump will look like he’s very dominant…I think the odds are better than even money that they can find the delegates before they get to Cleveland.”