<p class="MsoNormal">Tomorrow there will be a special election in Pennsylvania&rsquo;s 18<sup>th</sup> Congressional District pitting Republican Rick Saccone against Democrat Conor Lamb. ; This is generally a safe district for Republicans. ; Candidate Trump carried it by 19 points.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Democrats hope &ndash; and many are convinced &ndash; that young Lamb will flip the seat to the Democrats and foreshadow a wave victory in November that will give them control of the U.S. House. ; It is certainly possible, but by far not assured.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Most of the polls suggest that the margin in the race is &ldquo;razor thin&rdquo; and beyond the ability to project a winner. ; In such an allegedly close race, it is perilous to make a prediction &ndash; but I shall regardless. ; I think Saccone will hold the seat for the GOP.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If history is any indicator &ndash; and it may not be &ndash; the fact that the race is too close to call should bode well for Saccone. ; Polls tend to favor Democrats. ; It is rare that a Democrat candidate hits his mark, and even rarer to exceed it. ; Of course, the most obvious and extreme example is the 2016 presidential race. ;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Rather than admit to a bias in their samples, pollsters usually gloss over their mistakes by claiming a &ldquo;last minute shift&rdquo; among voters &ndash; even though very few voters change their minds at the last minute. ; And even though it is in the so-called margin of error, Saccone does have a lead of two or three points.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The margin of the Trump vote is a significant factor, but my prediction is also based on the fact that in every election for the past 10 years, the Republican candidate garnered two-thirds of the vote &ndash; and ran uncontested in the past two elections. ; That is a lot of history to overcome.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So, why is it a contest at all? ; There are several factors that give rise to Democrat hopes. ;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It is generally believed in Democrat circles and among the elitist media that President Trump&rsquo;s personal popularity &ndash; or lack thereof &ndash; is a drag on the voters. ; Running against the man has not proven to be effective in the past &ndash; and yet Democrats are again running against the Trump personality as opposed to his policies. ; They focus on his name-calling, self-promotion, past accusations of sexual misconduct and unsubstantiated claims of Russian Collusion. ; This time, however, a lot of voters not only like what Trump promises to do policy-wise, but what he has actually done. ;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Republican voters not only like where the economy is heading, but they believe that Trump gets the lion&rsquo;s share of the credit despite the Democrats efforts to attribute it all to President Obama. ; They like the concept of de-regulation and don&rsquo;t much care about any specific examples that give the Democrat&rsquo;s apoplexy. ; They like that the Trump administration is rebuilding the military that atrophied under Obama. ; They like a foreign policy that is defeating ISIS and forcing North Korea to the table.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Democrat strategists look to New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama as positive omens. ; But are they? ; Virginia and New Jersey have been Democrat strongholds for some time &ndash; and New Jersey&rsquo;s Republican Governor Chris Christie was an anomaly. ; Alabama had nothing to do with Trump or voting trends. ; Joe Moore was a disaster as a candidate &ndash; and even with all that baggage, he almost won. ; Any other Republican candidate would have easily carried the state for the GOP. ;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It is also noteworthy that while Democrats have picked up a number of local offices held by Republicans, they have yet to defeat a Republican for a House seat since Trump was elected.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Another reason for Democrat optimism is the candidate himself. ; Lamb is about as conservative a candidate as can ever gain a Democrat nomination. ; He will vote against Nancy Pelosi, is a defender of the Second Amendment and personally opposes abortion. ; These may make him look more appealing on the ballot, but they have virtually no meaning in terms of his service in Congress.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Should Democrats take the House, Lamb may cast a perfunctory vote against Pelosi for Speaker, but she will become Speaker and Lamb will have to function under her leadership. ; His stand on the Second Amendment is a bit shaky. ; It remains to be seen just how far up the ladder of gun control he will go when the actual votes need to be cast in Congress. His &ldquo;I personally oppose abortion but will not interfere with a woman&rsquo;s decision&rdquo; will not appeal to any pro-lifer.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It will be virtually impossible for Lamb to break with liberal Democrat positions over a broad range of votes as a congressman. ; From day one, the pressure will be on him to march in lockstep on key issues. ; As a party with an authoritarian gene, Democrat leaders do not tolerate dissension in the ranks. ; Most conservative voters understand all that.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To understand the dynamic that Alabama&rsquo;s Democrat Senator Doug Jones faces &ndash; and that Lamb would face if elected &ndash; one only needs to harken back to when Rahm Emmanuel, as head of the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee, recruited moderate Democrats in moderate districts. ; It worked. ; Many were elected, and the Democrats took control of the House. ; That new class of conservative Democrats were then pressured or were predisposed to voting the Party&rsquo;s liberal agenda &#8212; and in the next cycle two, they were virtually all defeated.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Democrats also believe that their base is energized. ; Women and Millennials will show up in unprecedented numbers, they believe. ; That has been a claim since Geraldine Ferraro was the Democrat candidate for Vice President way back in 1984. ; If there has been any thread of consistency in the past decades, it is the disappointment over turn out. ; To support that argument, they tend to dwell on the exception, President Obama, and not the rule.</p>
<p> ;</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Even if Lamb is the most conservative candidate the Democrats are willing put up, he is still not the real thing, and I think when it comes time to cast a ballot in Pennsylvania&rsquo;s 18<sup>th</sup> Congressional District, the majority &ndash; which is traditionally Republican &#8212; will vote for the real thing. ; Just my opinion.</p>