
<p>We are now just a month away from counting the ballots. ; Voting in several states – including battleground states – is underway. ; So, what can we see in the crystal ball?</p>



<p>Polling is not always a reliable peak into the future – think 2016. ; But it – and some sense of history – is all we have.</p>



<p>At this moment, polling gives the edge to Vice President Harris. She has maintained a lead in the national vote in the most reliable polls. She also leads in the battleground states enough to win in the Electoral College. BUT (a big &#8216;but&#8217;) most of the polling is within the margin-of-error.</p>



<p>While Harris has not surged in any poll, she has been creeping up little by little. ; That could be seen as a trend or movement – albeit very very modest momentum. ; Since the Trump and Harris campaigns are becalmed in the political margin-of-error doldrums, even a little breeze is meaningful. ; And that breeze is filling Harris’ sails more than Trump’s at this moment.</p>



<p>So, what does it look like in real numbers. ; In several key polls, Harris holds a 4 to 5 point lead across the nation. ; Though in the margin of error, it is still significant since the final outcome is likely to be that close – or closer. ; The election results will likely land in the margin-of-error range.</p>



<p>In recent days, Harris has the edge in the blue wall of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota – with Pennsylvania a dead heat. ; Trump has been ahead in the sun belt. ; But more recent polls show him tied in North Carolina. ; A recent FOX poll now has Harris ahead in Georgia. ; If those numbers hold up, it is game over for Trump.</p>



<p>That is where a little history comes in. ; In 2016 and 2020, Trump outperformed the polls by a lot. ; It led to a surprising win in 2016 and a much closer race than polls suggested in 2020.</p>



<p>History may not be applicable this year. ; Pollsters, who crafted their models with too many Democrats and too many younger voters, may have corrected the problem.  ;Maybe they are getting it right this time.</p>



<p>Trump seems to benefit in the polls from voters who will not reveal their intention to cast ballots for him. ; This is due to the shaming efforts by Democrats – casting Trump voters as political zombies. ; They fib to pollsters.</p>



<p>Also, many things are different this time. ; We have had the events of January 6, 2021, seemingly endless legal problems for Trump and a legion of erstwhile Republican leaders and Trump administration officials jumping ship.</p>



<p>According to the polls. Trump leads on all the critical issues that voters say are most important to them. ; To the frustration of staffers, friends and GOP voters, Trump has done a poor job of focusing on his winning issues.</p>



<p>While it is impossible to predict with certainty whether Trump or Harris will assume the presidency on January 20, 2025, the crystal ball is favoring Harris at the moment – and Trump does not have a lot of time to change that projection.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Not looking so good for Trump these days but …
