No rematch between Trump and Biden
The political pundits are getting their jollies these days speculating over the make-up of the 2024 presidential election. Will former President Trump run again? Will he announce it soon? Can he win the GOP nomination? Can he win the General Election?
Then there is Biden. While pundits on both sides have said that it is too early for Trump to announce his decision, they seem to have overlooked that Biden has already announced his decision to run for re-election. But with his favorable rating lower than any President in history – and prominent members of his own Party opposing a second term for the soon-to-be octogenarian – he may encounter political headwinds.
The one thing that mitigates against a run for the White House in 2024 is … age. To put it bluntly, they are both too damn old – in years and in thinking. In the world of technology, culture, and political alignment, Trump and Biden are old school. They base their thinking on an America that is consigned to the history books. They are 20th Century figures in the 21st Century.
Putting politics aside, both Trump and Biden do not have the personality and demeanor to serve the best interests of the nation. Trump is compromised by a pugnacious personality – and Biden showing signs of mental decline.
Trump and Biden personify the division in the nation. But … it is a nation eager to end the acerbity of today’s political debate. And that means new faces with new attitudes.
I am convinced that President Biden will not be given a second term – even if he has not become a drooling old man with a walker trying to find his way back from the bathroom. As an incumbent, he may have the best odds to secure his Party’s nomination, but it would be a disaster for the Democrats.
I am convinced that Trump will not be elected to a second non-consecutive term. In fact, I doubt he can secure the nomination. The only folks who believe he is THE major power in the Republican Party are Democrats and Trump, himself. Yes, he has a base – but it is too small to secure the nomination unless there is again a large field of candidates in the GOP primaries. That is what happened in 2016 – and political lightning rarely strikes twice.
One theory, however, is that both men have sufficient power to clear the field. If Biden enters 2024 with low ratings and no significant accomplishments to sate the crazies on his far left, there are several potential challengers. I suspect Vice President Harris would be chaffing at the bit to make a run in 2024, but as Biden’s lady-in-waiting, it would be political suicide to jump into the race against the boss. Bernie Sanders may dream of yet another run – and even launch a campaign. But he’s also in the too old category.
High on the list of potential challengers would be Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. She has a greater devotion to her issues and ambitions than loyalty to Biden. Same with California Governor Gavin Newsom. Illinois billionaire Governor J.B. Pritzker has let it be known that he, too, covets the Oval Office.
On the GOP side, it is assumed that should Trump demure on a second presidential campaign, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis becomes the pre-emptive successor. Not so fast. DeSantis is currently riding a tide of popularity within the GOP, but early frontrunners generally falter. Some suggest it is because they play target for too long … the public gets weary of them … or the issues change over time. There is still the question as to whether DeSantis would take on Trump in a head-to-head battle for the GOP nomination.
So, if not Trump or Biden, then who do I see composing the Republican and Democrat tickets in 2024. How the hell do I know? It is only 2022 – and we are not past the midterm elections yet. As a conservative Republican, I can conjure up a number of dream tickets. One of those would be DeSantis with a Hispanic woman as a running mate – perhaps the newly elected congresswoman from Texas, Mayra Flores.
The only reason the media is spending so much time on the 2024 presidential election is because Democrats want to make the 2022 midterm elections about Trump. I think the former President’s impact on the upcoming midterms will be far less than many Republicans believe – and many Democrats hope.
Speculating about a future second term for either Trump or Biden is an exercise in futility. They are not going to be their party’s standard bearers – and you can bet on that (but not too much).
So, there ‘tis.