There are several ways to analyze the Trump/Harris Debate. One is to judge the performance of the individuals. The second is to critique the performance of the ABC moderators. Third is the nature and impact of the post-debate media spin. Fourth is determining the winner. And finally, how the debate will impact voters – meaning future polling numbers and ultimately, the election.
Personal performance
In terms of personal performance, I give both candidates a “C.” Trump and Harris each came to the stage with a goal. For Vice President Harris, it was to sell herself to that one-third of the voters who say they need to know more about her. However, she did not provide much more than what any half-informed voter already knew. She stuck close to the same boilerplate talking points she had been espousing in her scripted speeches. There was nothing new in terms of specific plans. Mostly platitudes.
Most notable was her avoidance of answering questions. It started with the initial question as to whether Americans were better off today than four years ago. Instead of responding to the specific question, Harris gave what essentially was an opening statement. In another instance, she ignored the question about her specific flip-flops on various policies. Harris said she would address each of them, but never did.
The same is true of Harris’ negative attacks on Trump. Nothing was new. She brought up the court cases … the Republican defections … the Capitol Hill riot … and his relationship with dictators.
In terms of style, Harris was so scripted that she could have been an AI facsimile. Even her zingers seemed programmed to go off like preset time bombs.
As a lifelong prosecutor, Harris has a reasonable command of the stage. She is articulate, if not informative. She presented her brief while avoiding cross examination. Essentially, Harris was the Harris we have seen and heard since she stepped in to replace President Biden as Democrat standard bearer.
Trump was also the same Trump we have seen and heard on the campaign trail. Unlike Harris, Trump is not good at presenting and closing an argument. He seems to operate without a strategy. Whereas Harris operates from a mental script, Trump wings it.
Based on polling, Trump had the winning positions on the issues that voters have said concern them most. According to the polls, voters trust Trump more in handling the economy … fighting inflation … securing the border … fighting crime. Trump did not take advantage of those advantages. Other than immigration, Trump did not offer to lay out the argument why he would be the right person to handle those issues.
What some saw as Harris putting Trump on the defensive, I saw as giving him an opportunity to correct the disinformation. Do some fact-checking that the moderators only provided one way. Trump made it clear that he does not oppose artificial fertilization, as Harris dishonestly, but has strongly supported and funded it. And there were others.
Trump obviously saw immigration as the most important issue. He kept referring to it throughout the debate. He made the salesman’s mistake of continuing to talk after the sale was made. He consumed airtime that could have been used to address other issues.
Trump also produced his characteristic head-scratchers. The dog eating migrant issue was one of them. On that one, the moderator did an instant fact check – as a rebuttal — saying that local officials have seen no evidence of the puppy as chow allegations.
Since one of the most persistent attack lines by Democrats is that Trump is too cozy with dictators, why would he cite Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban as a person who admires him?
Trump maintained his habit of hyperbole and superlatives — whether talking about himself or Harris. He claimed to produce the best economy in the history of America … that everyone wanted abortion to be handled by the states … and that Harris was the worst Vice President in American history. (Did he forget about Arron Burr?)
Trump did land some punches. He was effective in calling out Harris for not having a real plan – but just platitudes and promises. He asked Harris why – in the past three years — she and Biden had not done all the things she is now promising to do.
In terms of style, Trump dispelled the Democrat’s bogus narrative that he is in a state of age-related decline — physically and mentally. There were no senior moments.
The debate was moderated by Linsey Davis and David Muir of ABC news. They get an “F”.
Having seen every presidential debate since the famous 1960 debate between President Nixon and Senator John Kennedy, I would rate the ABC team as the worst ever.
From the onset, they seemed to have an anti-Trump attitude. There was a palpable disdain for Trump in the tone and the nature of the questions. More specifically, the moderators pushed back if they believed that Trump did not answer the question as posed. At no time did they ask Harris to respond to questions she dodged.
On several occasions, they challenged Trump’s answers – fact-checking as they call it – even as Harris gave multiple statements that were inaccurate. When Harris brought up that old “good people on both sides” quote, the moderators did not fact-check her, even though that accusation has been debunked by several media organizations, including the Washington Post. Same with Trump’s “bloodbath” statement.
(Having negotiated and moderated major debates, it is my personal belief that it is NOT the role of a moderator to fact-check. That is the role of the opponent. By challenging a candidate, the moderator is literally entering the debate on the side of the opponent – which is exactly what the ABC team did. They were not moderating. They were attempting to influence the election.)
Then there was the nature of the questions asked. Questions to Trump dealt with more controversial issues that put him in an unfavorable light. Harris was given mostly softball questions, or questions that would raise issues about Trump – setting up a negative attack.
Perhaps the greatest failure was by sin of omission. The moderators simply failed to ask specific tough questions of Harris. And when they offered up even a slightly tough question, Harris ignored it – and the moderators failed to push back for an answer. There was a blatantly unfair treatment of Trump by the moderators. It was an utter failure based on a combination of obvious bias and gross incompetency.
Post Debate Spin
Since many people will not have seen the debate, how the media spins can have a significant impact on voter perception. I watched the spin on virtually all the networks. As expected, the left-wing media, such as MSNBC, saw Harris as the run-away winner. FOX News gave the win to Trump – although not entirely uncritical of his performance.
Most surprising was the immediate response from CNN. Of course, they gave the win to Harris – as expected. But it was the extreme nature of their evaluation. Jake Tapper came on immediately following the debate — and not only declared Harris the clear winner but viewed Trump’s performance as a total collapse. The entire panel concurred. The most insane comment came from Chris Wallace, who said he never thought he would see a worse debate performance than Biden. But Trump’s was it. Worse than Biden? That was totally out of line. That is nothing less than biased gaslighting.
In the morning newscasts, a bit of objectivity and rationality settled in. There was still a bias, but not to the degree that was seen immediately following the debate. Fortunately for Trump, the late-night post-debate shows could not compete in viewership with FOX’s post-debate program and the morning shows –blunting the value of the outrageous media spin immediately following the debate.
The Winner
There were certainly no knockouts. But in terms of content, I give the edge to Trump. In terms of style-over-content, I edge to Harris. Generally, I saw it as a draw. Not based on what the candidates did, but on what they did not do. No forced errors. They each had their say. No one got thrown out of kilter.
Harris proved that she would deliver a decent speech – although the content was vapid. Trump proved he could address the issues with some substance – and without name calling. And while he got into the immigration issue too many times, he did get some small advantages on the issues of crime and the economy. I do not believe that those who watched only the debate would agree with the post-debate media spin version. They may not see Trump as a winner, but certainly not the loser reflected in the left-wing media.
This was reflected in various media focus groups. Voters did not see Harris win. Reuters assembled 10 independents. Following the debate, 6 said they there were now leaning to Trump … 3 to Harris … and one remained undecided.
The difference in the opinions of the media and political establishment and the voters reminded me of the 1980 Reagan/Carter debate. The professional politicians and pundits gave the win to Carter. All that Reagan won was the hearts and votes of the people.
The Vote
The impact on voters is the great unknown – and we will not even see the first evidence until the later polls – in a week or so
My general impression is that we will not see a significant change in polling numbers. That has less to do with the debate, but more to the fact that the undecided or persuadable voters are a very small sliver of the electorate at this point. Most folks know who they will vote for – and the debate will not change that.
What most pundits will be looking for – me included — is any small shift in the pre-debate trend, which was moving ever so slightly in Trump’s direction. He is currently closing on the bump Harris received for not being Joe Biden. She did not get a second bump coming out of the convention – as many expected.
Any change will be mostly within the margin of error, so we will not know with any degree of accuracy who is ahead – and who is not.
It will be interesting to see if the trend toward Trump continues or has stalled – or reverses. That will be the impact of the debate. But it will be seen in very small numbers and may not be determinant in terms of the election outcome.
And as a reminder, early voting has already started.
So. there ‘tis.